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marketing The World Cotton Market ■■By Alice Robinson, Cotton Outlook editorial staff Since our previous contribution to The Australian Cottongrower in early August, stability in international markets has waned. After making gains in August, international raw cotton prices retreated the following month. The Cotlook A Index fell to a low point of 80.45 on the last trading day of September. At the time of writing, the Index is hovering just above the 81.00 cent mark. Prices have been influenced by a succession of bearish supply and demand estimates of late. In August, the state of Northern Hemisphere crops was in doubt; Texas was suffering drought conditions and large-scale abandonment seemed likely; the Southwest monsoon was sorely deficient over India and Pakistan and eastern Chinese provinces were waterlogged following excessive precipitation. In spite of this, USDA’s August estimation of world ending stocks was revised upwards to 16.3 million tonnes. In the immediate aftermath, New York futures fell sharply, but they recovered quickly and even rose to a three-month high on August 21. This firmness of prices seemed at odds with the evolution of cotton fundamentals during the period. Changes in Cotton Outlook’s own production and consumption estimates were also equally bearish in tone. It had already seemed likely that supply would outstrip demand by some margin, even with the unhelpful climatic influences on some crops, but the scale of potential surplus was not apparent until the state of crops began their turnaround in September. The Southwest monsoon was vigorous from the last week in Specialists in the Sale and Valuation of Rural Properties • Rural Properties • Cargill Cotton Agents • Town Sales • Registered Valuers • Property Management • Auctions • Clearing Sales MOREE REAL ESTATE www.moreerealestate.com.au Phone: 02 7651 1100 Fax: 02 6751 1766 After Hours: Paul Kelly 0428 281 428 Cliff Brown 02 6752 3970 Allan Gobbert 0428 523 375 Cargill’s Cotton Division – Buying cotton bales direct from the grower Phil Sloan Amy Billsborough PO Box 1203 GOONDIWINDI Qld 4390 Ph: (07) 4671 0222 Fax: (07) 4671 3833 AGENTS: Pete Johnson Left Field Solutions Mob: 0409 893 139 Paul Kelly Moree Real Estate Moree Ph: (02) 6751 1100 Roger McCumstie Brisbane Ph: (07) 3367 2629 David Dugan Lucy Watson Trangie Ph: (02) 6888 7122 cotton_aust@cargill.com www.cargill.com.au 38 — The Australian Cottongrower October–November 2012
marketing August. The important Saurashtra and Kutch regions of the key Indian producing state Gujarat were 88 per cent deficient on August 20. But the rains began in earnest when they were most needed, with some regions receiving up to five times the daily average rainfall. In just four weeks, the national rainfall deficit was narrowed to a single figure percentage. The lateness of moisture has curtailed sowings in Saurashtra and is likely to affect yields throughout Gujarat, but a greatly increased sown area in the peninsular state of Andhra Pradesh is predicted to make up for some of this loss. In the US, Hurricane Isaac, far from damaging crops, proved a boon to alleviate parched soils in cotton producing areas. There had been reports of fields browning but on September 17, USDA reported that 70 per cent of US cotton was in fair condition or better. But since then, more adverse weather events have occurred, rendering it unlikely that US sellers will offer further quantities of higher grades from all regions in much volume, at least in the short term. The China Cotton Association’s latest crop forecast was unchanged, despite unhelpful weather across much of the cultivating area. Beijing Cotton Outlook, for its part, has restored its figure to around CCA’s level, having previously lowered it to reflect the inclement conditions prevailing in some mainland regions. The autonomous region of Xinjiang in northwest China is predicted to achieve record yields, and looks set therefore to offset the losses in mainland provinces. The disparity between production and consumption has become more apparent. The A Index continued to retreat October–November 2012 The Australian Cottongrower — 39
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