Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity ...
Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity ...
Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity ...
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oliaviour <strong>of</strong> producers <strong>of</strong> specific commod~tlcs 111 thc choset~ cuuntrlcs. Only few<br />
studics such as Love (1992). Wilson (1994). Slnha (1999). Tegegne (2000). used time<br />
series analysis on an indwidual country hasis Hut, most <strong>of</strong>the ava~lahlc time series<br />
studies do not address the <strong>Issues</strong> <strong>of</strong> non-statlonary nature <strong>of</strong> data. Hmce it could not<br />
he ruled out that these estilnates are estimated from spurious rcgressioti. Mullor-<br />
Sebast~an (1988) argued that studlcs, which lump together the exports <strong>of</strong> all goods.<br />
are misleading because export instahllity II~ a gtven product is influenced hy the<br />
characteristics <strong>of</strong> the indiv~dual product and degree <strong>of</strong> development <strong>of</strong> the exporting<br />
country. Accordingly. the present study colifi~ie itself to instability in llidia~l seafood<br />
exporl earnings and uses thc tltne serles data after considering the non-statlonary<br />
nature <strong>of</strong>tlic data.<br />
I:arlier statistical cv~denceb conclude that illstability index <strong>of</strong> exports are largcly<br />
associated with the dcgrcc <strong>of</strong> commodity cu~ice~~tration <strong>of</strong> cxports, per capita it~con~c<br />
and with the concentration <strong>of</strong> exportr by eeoeraphical area <strong>of</strong> dest~nation (Paudyal.<br />
1988. Sinha, 1999. 'I egegtle. 2000). I'hus, instahil~ty index <strong>of</strong> seafood ehports<br />
earnings could he expressed as a funct~oti <strong>of</strong> commodity concentratloti (CC).<br />
Geographic Conce~itratiot~ ((iC) and <strong>Instability</strong> ill countp's GDl' ~ h reflects ~ h ~CI.<br />
capita lncomc <strong>of</strong>the chporting country.<br />
IISFFX f(C'C. GC, Il(il)P) .. . (7)<br />
To separate out the effects <strong>of</strong> the fishcries GDP on instability <strong>of</strong> scafood expons<br />
equation 3 is redefined as follows<br />
IISFEX = f (CC. GC, IIFGDP. IINFGDP) .... (4)<br />
Wliere IIFGDP represents lnstabillty index <strong>of</strong> fisheries GDI' and IINFGDP <strong>Instability</strong><br />
index <strong>of</strong>non-fisheries GVP.<br />
'I'egegne (2000) argued that apan from the other key determinants <strong>of</strong> exports<br />
income fluctuations, the relative Importance <strong>of</strong> major commodity, global demand<br />
conditions affecting the major commodity, internal supply condit~oti should also be<br />
considered. Among seafood exports, frozen shrimp is the single largest expon item.<br />
The proportion <strong>of</strong> exports from cultured shrimp production has kept rising, implying<br />
that ally instability caused ill seafood cxports could be mainly due to fluctuations in<br />
the cultured shrimp production Thus to capture the flucluations In seafood exports,<br />
cultured shrimp production is also cons~dercd as one <strong>of</strong> the determinants Thus<br />
equation 4 can he written as<br />
IISFEX = f (CC, GC, IIFGDP, IINFGDP, IISHPR) ....(5)