Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity ...

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1hl)lAN C L 4 f t XPORTS ISSlJtOF INFIAHILITY COMMI)UIIY l'ON('IN~KA1ION 241
Where G - Cornnlodity concentratton coeffic~ent (CC)/Geographic concentration coefficient (GC), X,, - Export earnings of commodlt). group i in year titxport earnings from country i in year t and X, = '1 otal export earnings in year 1. A varlety of instability ind~ces are available in the literature from simple to complex. The variance of expon grov'th 15 the simplest measure of export instability. But &ng tn lluctuat~otls in export volulnes and values, deviations from trend in exports could be more ideal measure of export ~nstability Varlous corrections for trend are available in the Ilterature, "11,!moving avcragcs, llnear and exponential trends (Pinsuwana, 1991, Rhat and Nlrmala. 2001. Drvkota, 20041. I:.ach of these methods has its own advantages and d~sadvantages. The present study anenlpts to compute the Instability of ehparts hy using the measme, based on the avcrage percent devlatlon of the ohscrved values pmcecd from an exponcntial path (Paudyal, 1988). 'The instability index (11) can he expressed by the formula. Whcre 11 = Instability indcx, Xt = Est~mdtcd trend \aloe, X, = Actual value. X = Mean of the actual valuc. 'The literature on the determinants of export instability is well established. The deternittlants are commodity concentratton (CC), geographical concentration (GC), the ratio of food and raw lnatcrials lo lotal exports, per capita income of exporting country, openness of the economy and export shares in world trade, etc. The empirical evidence on Ihc relationsh~p between these determ~nant~ and export instability appears inconclusive. Studies like Massell (1970) and O'Brien (1972) show no significant link between expon instability and its alleged determinants. However. studies like Paudyal (1988), and Tegegne (2000) showed that these determinants do affect export ~nstah~lity. The cross-country analysis by earlier studies implicitly assume a unique relationship between a given ehplanatoV variable and the degree of export instability across the countries. Thus, estimates using cross section data to find the average relationshtps does not provlde much lnfomation on the
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Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity ...

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