Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity ...
Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity ...
Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity ...
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IAOLC 5 JOllANSrN COINTt(iKAIl0N TESl RtSIJLTS<br />
I ra~c 5 per rmt I pcr cca Mux-I IEC~ 5 per ccnl<br />
II~PULCEIC~ Llgon rlaltrlrc crtt~irl crbllcal \lul~slic sr~llc~l l lvr csnt<br />
no ol ('I($1 vnlac h., valuc valur A,. valvr crlllcal valllc<br />
(11 I21 (3) I4l<br />
1% (bl 17) IBl -<br />
Nunc 0937 13q6X V4 15 103 18 58 I2 39 17 45 111<br />
Atinnst 1 0171 77 56 b8q2 7607 309( 3146 3871<br />
Atnli,rl2 II hh3 46 61 4721 $4 46 22 84 2707 32 24<br />
A1moql3 0 66 23 76 QOX 21 65 17 56 21197 2( 52<br />
Almon4 0242 621 1541 2004 qR1 1407 1863<br />
- M -. nmo,l - 5 .. - - 0 -- 018 I -<br />
~<br />
1~7h I1 3811 3 76<br />
6 65 .<br />
Ilh/ex = -15.462' Icc I 4.902' /yct0.03'l,!/grlp t 0.774' l,infgd/~ I 0.610' I,r,\lrpr<br />
(2.214) (I 728) (0 102) (0 093) (0077) .. (10)<br />
lo thc abobe long-rut1 model all coefficients liave the ant~cipated signs indicattng<br />
yc. !i/pf/i,. ~rnfydp arrd mhla. have positwe effect on the tnstahility in cxpons and cc<br />
have negative effect Thus one untt increase in the geographic concentration lndicates<br />
- -<br />
4.9 ltntts incrcasc 111 the tnstahil~t! index <strong>of</strong> lnd~an seafood exports. 1 he lnipact <strong>of</strong><br />
instahilttv doe to non-fiqheries GIN' is more comoared to ~nstah!l~tv In fisher~es GDP<br />
as reflected by the magnitude <strong>of</strong> coeficients. Similarly. instahllity in shrimp<br />
production also has a postttvc Impact on instahtlity tndex<br />
Ilowever, commod~ty concentration appears to have a negative effect on the<br />
instabilih. in seafood exports indtcarina that tf commoditv concentration decreases bv<br />
one unit the instability <strong>of</strong> exports wtll increase by 15.46 tirnea. In this conlext this<br />
may be interpreted as a fall in the proportion <strong>of</strong> high value frozen shrimp in favour <strong>of</strong><br />
lower value items in the composition <strong>of</strong> <strong>Indian</strong> seafood exports ovcr ttme Table 6<br />
provides the shon run coefficiietits <strong>of</strong> the instability equation including errorcorrection<br />
tern.<br />
TAHL.1 h I STtMATl'S 01 SHOKI-RlIN INDIAN ~kAF001~ tXI'OHIS INSIAHII I1Y MOIICI<br />
The international seafood market is governed by both price and non-price factors.<br />
In the post-WTO scheme <strong>of</strong> globalised scenario, product improvement and<br />
diflerentiation is more <strong>of</strong> a norm than an exception. Therefore, the short-term<br />
coefiicients are smaller than their long run counter parts. This suggests that the<br />
impact <strong>of</strong> these variables causing instability in <strong>Indian</strong> seafood exports requires tlme