Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity ...

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IAOLC 5 JOllANSrN COINTt(iKAIl0N TESl RtSIJLTS
I ra~c 5 per rmt I pcr cca Mux-I IEC~ 5 per ccnl
II~PULCEIC~ Llgon rlaltrlrc crtt~irl crbllcal \lul~slic sr~llc~l l lvr csnt
no ol ('I($1 vnlac h., valuc valur A,. valvr crlllcal valllc
(11 I21 (3) I4l
1% (bl 17) IBl -
Nunc 0937 13q6X V4 15 103 18 58 I2 39 17 45 111
Atinnst 1 0171 77 56 b8q2 7607 309( 3146 3871
Atnli,rl2 II hh3 46 61 4721 $4 46 22 84 2707 32 24
A1moql3 0 66 23 76 QOX 21 65 17 56 21197 2( 52
Almon4 0242 621 1541 2004 qR1 1407 1863
- M -. nmo,l - 5 .. - - 0 -- 018 I -
~
1~7h I1 3811 3 76
6 65 .
Ilh/ex = -15.462' Icc I 4.902' /yct0.03'l,!/grlp t 0.774' l,infgd/~ I 0.610' I,r,\lrpr
(2.214) (I 728) (0 102) (0 093) (0077) .. (10)
lo thc abobe long-rut1 model all coefficients liave the ant~cipated signs indicattng
yc. !i/pf/i,. ~rnfydp arrd mhla. have positwe effect on the tnstahility in cxpons and cc
have negative effect Thus one untt increase in the geographic concentration lndicates
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4.9 ltntts incrcasc 111 the tnstahil~t! index of lnd~an seafood exports. 1 he lnipact of
instahilttv doe to non-fiqheries GIN' is more comoared to ~nstah!l~tv In fisher~es GDP
as reflected by the magnitude of coeficients. Similarly. instahllity in shrimp
production also has a postttvc Impact on instahtlity tndex
Ilowever, commod~ty concentration appears to have a negative effect on the
instabilih. in seafood exports indtcarina that tf commoditv concentration decreases bv
one unit the instability of exports wtll increase by 15.46 tirnea. In this conlext this
may be interpreted as a fall in the proportion of high value frozen shrimp in favour of
lower value items in the composition of Indian seafood exports ovcr ttme Table 6
provides the shon run coefficiietits of the instability equation including errorcorrection
tern.
TAHL.1 h I STtMATl'S 01 SHOKI-RlIN INDIAN ~kAF001~ tXI'OHIS INSIAHII I1Y MOIICI
The international seafood market is governed by both price and non-price factors.
In the post-WTO scheme of globalised scenario, product improvement and
diflerentiation is more of a norm than an exception. Therefore, the short-term
coefiicients are smaller than their long run counter parts. This suggests that the
impact of these variables causing instability in Indian seafood exports requires tlme