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Phil Jordan, Joerg Arnscheidt and Hugo McGrogan References Arnscheidt, J., Jordan, P., Leeming, R., Li, S., McCormick, S., McFaul, R., McGrogan, H., Neal, M., Sims, J.T., Defining the sources of low flow phosphorus transfers in complex catchments, Science of the Total Environment, 382, pp 1 -13, 2007a Arnscheidt, J., Jordan, P., McGrogan H., McCormick, S. and Ward, C., High resolution monitoring to characterise phosphorus transfers in complex catchments, in Heckrath, G., Rubæk, G.H. and Kronvang, B. (Eds.), Diffuse phosphorus loss – risk assessment, mitigation options and ecological effects in river basins (IPW5), University of Aarhus, Denmark, pp 149-151, 2007b Douglas, R.W., Menary, W. and Jordan, P., Phosphorus and sedimenttransfers in a grassland river catchment, Nutrient Cycling in Agro-ecosystrems, 77, pp 199-212, 2007 Jordan P., Arnscheidt J., McGrogan H., and McCormick S., Characterising phosphorus transfers in rural catchments using a continuous bank-side analyser, Hydrology and Earth Systems Science, 11, pp 372-381, 2007a Jordan, P., Arnscheidt, J. and McGrogan, H., High Resolution Water Quality Monitoring: New Equipment, New Data, New Insights, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Supl. Abstract H51N-07 INVITED, 2007b Nasr, A., Bruen, M., Jordan, P., Kiely, G., Moles, R., Byrne, P., A comparison of SWAT, HSPF and SHETRAN/GOPC for modelling phosphorus export from three catchments in Ireland, Water Research, 41, pp 1065-1073, 2007 4.4 LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY Northern Ireland Countryside Survey During the Summer of 2007, as part of the Northern Ireland Countryside Survey research project, a team of six field surveyors mapped the distribution of habitats in 287 quarter kilometre sample grid squares.The field sampling programme was devised and organised by Thomas McCann (Research Associate). Field surveyors were: Angella Curelli, Dries Elst, Kathryn O’Callaghan, Lynne Peoples, Neil Thurgate and Geraldine Fox. David Rogers (Research Associate) was responsible for setting up a GIS system linking field maps and data recorded on a PDA/GPS system, to OSNI digital maps and colour aerial photographs of the sample grid squares. The two web sites below give context to the project, which is a four-year EHS-funded project (2007-2010) to assess ecological change. http://www.ehsni.gov.uk/biodiversity/nh-research/nicountrysidesurvey-2.htm http://www.science.ulster.ac.uk/nics/ Analysis of the 2007 field data has started, with the aim of quantifying habitat change as part of a time-series of similar sample records extending from a baseline in the late 1980s and a resurvey in 1998. The research has applications for informing biodiversity management in NI, for example linked to reporting government progress on the European Habitats Directive and in guiding the development of agri-environment schemes. Alan Cooper 20
4.5 GEOPHYSICS RESEARCH A major focus of geophysics research this year has been our NERC funded project to model the next likely earthquake and tsunami to affect Sumatra. As details of the next earthquake are unknowable, in practice we model a suite of possible earthquakes and their consequent tsunamis. Our starting point is illustrated in Figure 1 where we show the regions that ruptured in the 2004 and 2005 earthquakes, the stress changes caused by these events, and the approximate rupture areas of previous large earthquakes. The area of greatest concern for the occurrence of a tsunamigenic earthquake is near Siberut Island as it has experienced a significant stress increase and hence we assume that the next large earthquake will initiate somewhere in this region and propagate primarily to the south. Figure 1: Previous earthquake history on the subduction zone off the coast of Sumatra. Blue patches to the north represent a portion of the area that slipped in the great 2004 earthquake as well as the rupture zone of the 2005 event. Purple rectangle immediately south indicates a portion of the trench under the Batu Islands that is believed to be slipping aseismically (i.e. without experiencing large earthquakes) and hence is unlikely to participate in the next large event. Dotted ovals outline the portions of the subduction zone that experienced large earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. 21
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Page 15 and 16: 4.3 FRESHWATER SCIENCE Toxic metals
Page 17 and 18: A comparison of the sediment toxici
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