National Electric Transmission Congestion Study - W2agz.com

proposed to address these problems, including a
new line (or lines) to bring additional power
(principally hydro) down from Canada.
• As a whole, New York state depends on
high-cost oil and gas for about 35% of its power
production; the U.S. average is about 21%. 40 Accordingly,
New Yorkers would benefit from improved
access to low-cost power. Power moves
across the state—whether for reliability or economics—from
the northwest to the southeast,
and all flows from the west and north must pass
through a central set of transmission facilities located
between western and downstate New York.
• In New Jersey, transmission constraints limit
imports from the west and south, causing most of
the state to face some of the highest electricity
prices in the mid-Atlantic area. Several old, inefficient
power plants have been retired recently,
reducing local generation and degrading reliability.
Major transmission upgrades are needed
within 8 years, to bring in power for both reliability
and cost reduction. A new merchant transmission
line (the Neptune line) will go into service in
2007, and will move electricity from New Jersey
into Long Island; the line will ease Long Island’s
supply needs, but it may exacerbate New Jersey’s
local reliability and supply problems. Further,
some New York parties are looking to the New
Jersey – New York interface (and the PJM network
beyond it) as a possible means of accessing
low-cost generators in the Midwest to support
New York City. This could increase wholesale
power prices in New Jersey and elsewhere in
eastern PJM.
• The Delaware River path, an important conduit
from Wilmington and Philadelphia north to upper
New Jersey, faces numerous projected violations
of reliability criteria on the transmission
lines that supply densely populated areas of New
Jersey in every year from 2005 through 2010.
• PJM estimates that congestion costs caused by
transmission constraints in the Allegheny Mountain
area alone have totaled more than $1.3 billion
over the past three years. 41 Further, PJM says
that “more than 9400 MW of new generation, of
which approximately 6700 MW are coal-fired
units located in western Pennsylvania, western
Maryland, eastern Kentucky, Ohio, and West
Virginia, are pending in PJM’s interconnection
queue, with commercial operation dates of
2006-2012.” 42 Addition of this generation capacity,
though needed, will create additional congestion
unless new transmission is also developed.
• Retirements of generation are up sharply in
the mid-Atlantic area. PJM says that over 1700
MW of capacity were retired between January 1,
2003 and late June 2005, and almost another
1700 MW are now proposed for retirement. More
than 45% of these units are or were more than 40
years old. 43 Several older, high-polluting power
plants are suitable for retirement but are being
kept on-line to protect urban voltages. As in other
parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, few efficient
new power plants have been built close to the
load centers in the past decade.
• The Delmarva Peninsula has long been a load
pocket with significantly higher power prices and
lower reliability than the adjoining areas. 44 Although
the Delmarva area is not densely populated,
it is now experiencing rapid population and
load growth. Recent small-scale transmission upgrades
have been helpful but will not be sufficient
to meet the peninsula’s future needs. Recently
Pepco Holdings, Inc. proposed a new
transmission line that would bring new capacity
and energy to the peninsula from the south by
crossing the Chesapeake Bay.
• In the Baltimore – Washington, DC area, PJM
finds that without transmission upgrades, critically
important loads in the Washington, DC –
40 Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Annual 2004.
41 PJM comments in response to DOE’s February 2, 2006 Notice of Inquiry.
42 Ibid.
43 Ibid.
44 Ibid.PJMsays...“load growth in the Delmarva Peninsula is projected to be 2.7% per year or an increase of 573MW, over the next five years,
but planned generation additions are minimal. Only 60MW were added to the peninsula in 2004 and only another 150MW are being studied in
PJM’s interconnection process. Longer term forecasts indicate continuing, significant load growth in this area.”
42 U.S. Department of Energy / National Electric Transmission Congestion Study / 2006