National Electric Transmission Congestion Study - W2agz.com

5.2. Congestion Areas in the
Eastern Interconnection
Metropolitan New York –
Mid-Atlantic Critical Congestion
Area
The area from greater New York City south along
the coast to northern Virginia is one continuous
congestion area, covering part or all of the states of
New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware,
Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia.
This area requires billions of dollars of investment
in new transmission, generation, and demand-side
resources over the next decade to protect grid reliability
and ensure the area’s economic vitality.
Planning for the siting, financing, and construction
of these facilities is urgent.
Indicators of this area’s importance as a population
and economic center include:
• 55 million people (19% of the Nation’s 2005
population) 30
• $2.3 trillion dollars of gross state product (18%
of the 2005 gross national product) 31
• 561 terawatt-hours of electricity consumption
(16% of the national total in 2004) 32
• 547 terawatt-hours of electricity generation (14%
of the national total in 2004) 33
• 140 gigawatts of generation capacity (15% of the
Nation’s 2004 total). 34
The region also includes the Nation’s capital and
the world’s leading financial and communications
centers, and many other facilities critical to national
security and defense. Electricity demand in this area
is growing: PJM, for example, says that “weathernormalized
summer peak in the PJM region is forecast
to increase at an average rate of 1.7% per year
over the next ten years” 35 (through 2015), ranging
from 1.1 to 2.5% among utilities. Inability of the
grid to sustain reliable, affordable electricity deliveries
to the area would compromise the safety and
well-being of the Nation as well as the millions who
live and work in the region.
Transmission congestion problems are worsening
across this area:
• In southeastern New York, metropolitan New
York City and Long Island face 1.7% annual load
growth, and require continuing additional generation
(possibly as early as 2008). 36 Although a
growth rate of 1.7% might not be considered high
in some areas, in absolute terms here it means satisfying
substantial quantities of new demand
each year in an area that is already very densely
developed. The New York City Building Congress
recently estimated that the City will need to
add (or gain access to) between 6,000 and 7,000
MW of electricity resources over the next two decades.
37 The City’s population is expected to
reach 9 million by 2030. 38
• Southeastern New York also needs improved
voltage support that will require transmission reinforcements
in the Lower Hudson Valley, more
generation and demand-side management as
early as 2008, and as much as 2,250 MW of new
capacity or load reduction by 2015. 39 Even with
such improvements, southeast New York state
will remain substantially dependent upon the
transmission system to meet its capacity and
energy needs. Several specific transmission,
generation and demand-side measures have been
30 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GCTTable_bm=y&-geo_id=&-ds_name=
PEP_2005_EST&-_lang=en&-_caller=geoselect&-redoLog=false&-format=US-19&-mt_name=PEP_2005_EST_GCTT1_US9.
31 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Economic Accounts, http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm.
32 Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Annual 2004, Data Tables, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epa_sprdshts.
html.
33 Ibid.
34 Ibid.
35 See PJM comments in response to DOE’s February 2, 2006 Notice of Inquiry.
36 Lynch, Mark S., “ISO Power Trends 2005,” April 20, 2005 presentation.
37 See comments by the City of New York in response to DOE’s February 2, 2006 Notice of Inquiry.
38 See demographic projections reported in the New York Times at section 1, p. 33, February 19, 2006; cited in comments by City of New York.
39 NYISO, “The NYISO Issues Reliability Needs Assessment,” September 21, 2005.
U.S. Department of Energy / National Electric Transmission Congestion Study / 2006 41