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22 Withcare Goldman Sachs predicts that China will overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by 2027. That is a reversal from 2009, when 45% opted for the U.S. and 34% for China. aLPi asia & Far east OFFice With Japan facing one of the gravest crises of its history and still struggling to come out of, analysts think China will overtake Japan as the second largest economy this year. ASIA&FAR EAST
China became the second-largest economy last year, overtaking Japan, which had held that position since 1968. China’s 2010 GDP came in at $5.88 trillion compared to Japan’s $5.47 trillion. By some economic measures, the gaps between the world’s leaders are even wider: China’s per-capita GDP is about $4,000, compared with Japan’s $42,000 and the USA’s $47,000. 1. China will quickly overtake the United States as the world’s most powerful economy. China’s stunning economic rise is one of the biggest stories of this generation. In just three decades since beginning to embrace market economics, China has left its desperate poverty behind to become the world’s top exporting nation. The transformation has occurred so quickly that myths and misperceptions abound about the challenges and opportunities that China poses to America and the rest of the world. This year, China’s economy is expected to produce about $5 trillion in goods and services. That would put it ahead of Japan as the world’s second-biggest national economy, but it would still be barely one-third the size of the $14 trillion U.S. economy and well behind the European Union, if taken as a whole. One reason China’s economy is so big is simply that it has 1.3 billion people. But China’s per capita gross domestic product is only one-seventh the U.S. level. And in household living standards, China lags even further. In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China’s per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice.. India has a tough time seeking any recognition for its achievements. That is India’s Prime Minister view also. He expressed his misgivings about it recently. China gets all the cheers, even though their achievements are a bit phony. With $1.5 Trillion economy in Year 2012, the third largest in the world, India will be in the lead over and above most of Europe and Japan. With high valued merchandise and services exports of $300 Billion, India will be in a better shape than China, financially. China may have $800 Billion in merchandise exports, but these are low margin low value merchandise with poor quality and poor durability rating. Their export numbers may look attractive, but return is poor. Low return is the price they have to pay for a huge capital input. In the end it leaves them nothing to crow about. All arguments about poverty and under privileged people in India, although true, are a broad sword, which the West uses to discredit India. They miss out on achievements and successes. They have to look at their own poverty and under-privileged class before they criticize India India’s economy expanded 7.9 percent in the second quarter of 2009-10 and is expected to grow over 7 percent in the whole fiscal. According to the key policy makers of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government, India would return to 9 percent growth trajectory in two-three years. India’s economy expanded 7.9 in the second quarter of 200 is expected to grow over 7 he whole fiscal. Accordin of Prime 23
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