Global Purchasing Managers Indexes - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
Global Purchasing Managers Indexes - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
Global Purchasing Managers Indexes - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
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<strong>Global</strong> Economic Indicators:<br />
<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong><br />
<strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
July 31, 2014<br />
<strong>Dr</strong>. <strong>Ed</strong>ward Yardeni<br />
516-972-7683<br />
eyardeni@yardeni.com<br />
Debbie Johnson<br />
480-664-1333<br />
djohnson@yardeni.com<br />
Mali Quintana<br />
480-664-1333<br />
aquintana@yardeni.com<br />
Please visit our sites at<br />
www.yardeni.com<br />
blog.yardeni.com<br />
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents<br />
Table Of Contents<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Composite <strong>Indexes</strong> 1<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Manufacturing PMIs 2<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Non-Manufacturing PMIs 3<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs 4-7<br />
Super PMIs 8<br />
Flash Estimates 9-10<br />
July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
60<br />
Figure 1.<br />
JP MORGAN GLOBAL COMPOSITE OUTPUT PMI<br />
(50+ = expansion, sa)<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Composite <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
60<br />
55<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
40<br />
35<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014<br />
Source: JP Morgan, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
yardeni.com<br />
35<br />
60<br />
Figure 2.<br />
HSBC EMERGING MARKETS COMPOSITE PMI<br />
(50+ = expansion, sa)<br />
60<br />
55<br />
55<br />
Jun<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014<br />
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
yardeni.com<br />
40<br />
Page 1 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
70<br />
65<br />
Figure 3.<br />
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Manufacturing PMIs<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
Jun<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
Manufacturing PMIs<br />
United States (55.3)<br />
United Kingdom (57.5)<br />
Eurozone (51.8)<br />
Japan (50.5)<br />
yardeni.com<br />
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
65<br />
Figure 4.<br />
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*<br />
65<br />
60<br />
60<br />
55<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Jul<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
Manufacturing PMIs<br />
China (51.7)<br />
India (51.5)<br />
Brazil (48.7)<br />
Russia (49.1)<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
yardeni.com<br />
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
30<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
Page 2 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
70<br />
65<br />
Figure 5.<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
60<br />
55<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
United States (56.0)<br />
United Kingdom (57.7)<br />
Eurozone (52.8)<br />
Japan (49.0)<br />
yardeni.com<br />
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
70<br />
Figure 6.<br />
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*<br />
70<br />
65<br />
65<br />
60<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
China (53.1)<br />
India (54.4)<br />
Brazil (51.4)<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
yardeni.com<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
35<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
Page 3 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
Figure 7.<br />
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*<br />
Eurozone<br />
United States<br />
Jun<br />
Jun<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
Manufacturing<br />
Non-Manufacturing<br />
40<br />
30<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
30<br />
65<br />
70<br />
55<br />
Japan<br />
Germany<br />
60<br />
45<br />
Jul<br />
Jun<br />
50<br />
35<br />
40<br />
25<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
30<br />
65<br />
70<br />
60<br />
55<br />
France<br />
60<br />
50<br />
Jul<br />
Jun<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
China<br />
40<br />
35<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
30<br />
70<br />
60<br />
60<br />
United<br />
Kingdom<br />
Jun<br />
Italy<br />
Jun<br />
50<br />
50<br />
40<br />
40<br />
30<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
yardeni.com<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
30<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
Page 4 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
65<br />
55<br />
45<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
Figure 8.<br />
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*<br />
United<br />
States<br />
Jun<br />
Eurozone<br />
Jun<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
Composite of Manufacturing<br />
and Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
35<br />
30<br />
60<br />
70<br />
50<br />
Japan<br />
Jun<br />
Germany<br />
Jun<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
40<br />
30<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
30<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Jun<br />
France<br />
Jun<br />
60<br />
50<br />
45<br />
China<br />
40<br />
40<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
30<br />
65<br />
60<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
United<br />
Kingdom<br />
Jun<br />
Italy<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
40<br />
35<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
yardeni.com<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
35<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
Page 5 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
Figure 9.<br />
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*<br />
China<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Jul<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
Manufacturing<br />
Non-Manufacturing<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
70<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
35<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
India<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
40<br />
35<br />
65<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
35<br />
65<br />
60<br />
Brazil<br />
60<br />
55<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
Jun<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
40<br />
35<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
35<br />
Page 6 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
65<br />
60<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
Figure 10.<br />
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*<br />
China<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
65<br />
60<br />
Composite of Manufacturing<br />
and Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
India<br />
40<br />
35<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
60<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
Brazil<br />
40<br />
60<br />
55<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Jun<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
40<br />
Page 7 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
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Super PMIs<br />
65<br />
60<br />
Figure 11.<br />
GLOBAL SUPER PMIs*<br />
(unweighted average)<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
65<br />
60<br />
Average of Manufacturing<br />
& Non-Manufacturing<br />
US, UK, & Eurozone<br />
US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, & China<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
GLOBAL SUPER M-PMIs*<br />
(unweighted average)<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
US, UK, & Eurozone<br />
US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, & China<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
35<br />
30<br />
65<br />
60<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
GLOBAL SUPER NM-PMIs*<br />
(unweighted average)<br />
30<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
US, UK, & Eurozone<br />
US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, & China<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in activity.<br />
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
35<br />
Page 8 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
Flash Estimates<br />
60<br />
Figure 12.<br />
J.P. MORGAN GLOBAL PMI<br />
(sa)<br />
60<br />
55<br />
Jun<br />
55<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
Composite Output (55.4)<br />
Manufacturing (52.7)<br />
Services (55.8)<br />
40<br />
35<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.<br />
yardeni.com<br />
35<br />
65<br />
Figure 13.<br />
EUROZONE: PURCHASING MANAGERS<br />
FINAL + FLASH ESTIMATE*<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
Composite Output <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Eurozone (54.0)<br />
Germany (55.9)<br />
France (49.4)<br />
Jul<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
40<br />
35<br />
yardeni.com<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
35<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.<br />
Page 9 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
70<br />
65<br />
Figure 14.<br />
Flash Estimates<br />
EUROZONE: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES<br />
FINAL + FLASH ESTIMATE*<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
60<br />
55<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Jul<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
Manufacturing PMIs<br />
Eurozone (51.9)<br />
Germany (52.9)<br />
France (47.6)<br />
yardeni.com<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
Figure 15.<br />
EUROZONE: NON-MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS<br />
FINAL + FLASH ESTIMATE*<br />
Non-Manufacturing PMIs<br />
Eurozone (54.4)<br />
Germany (56.6)<br />
France (50.4)<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
Jul<br />
55<br />
50<br />
50<br />
45<br />
45<br />
40<br />
40<br />
35<br />
yardeni.com<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
35<br />
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.<br />
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.<br />
Page 10 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Purchasing</strong> <strong>Managers</strong> <strong>Indexes</strong><br />
Yardeni Research, Inc.<br />
www.yardeni.com
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