Annual Report 2012 - Knorr-Bremse AG.
Annual Report 2012 - Knorr-Bremse AG.
Annual Report 2012 - Knorr-Bremse AG.
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34<br />
Outlook<br />
In the next two years, <strong>Knorr</strong>-<strong>Bremse</strong> is expecting to see<br />
further volatility in markets around the world. In regional<br />
terms the markets will probably continue to show divergent<br />
developments. In Europe and the USA, high levels<br />
of sovereign debt and the austerity policies adopted by<br />
many countries are preventing any substantial growth<br />
stimulus. And while forecasts predict continuing strong<br />
growth for the emerging markets in South America and<br />
Asia in particular, growth rates are expected to be far<br />
lower than in recent years.<br />
Against this backdrop, we are anticipating further moderate<br />
global growth, albeit exposed to high risks and uncertainties<br />
in the regional markets. The emerging markets<br />
of Asia will probably continue to account for the<br />
lion’s share of global economic growth in 2013 and 2014.<br />
In industrialized countries, opportunities may arise by<br />
agreement being reached on long-term measures to resolve<br />
the sovereign debt crisis, leading to an easing of<br />
restraints on capital expenditure at many companies in<br />
these countries, which could provide additional impetus<br />
for global growth.<br />
In the European rail vehicle market, we are currently anticipating<br />
a largely stable market environment for the<br />
next two years. While the negative effects of the economic<br />
crisis are evident in Spain, Portugal and Italy, Germany<br />
presents a stable, high-level volume of procurement<br />
across the various market segments. In Russia, the<br />
UK and South Africa, which also forms part of the Group’s<br />
“European” region, planned investments in a variety of<br />
rail transportation projects are expected to generate further<br />
growth. The rapidly progressing Middle Eastern region<br />
will move further into the spotlight in view of the<br />
projected expansion of the rail network.<br />
In the European commercial vehicle sector, the market is<br />
expected to shrink in 2013 and 2014. The volume of<br />
trucks built in 2013 will probably be slightly down on the<br />
prior-year level. In fiscal 2013, the main challenge for the<br />
Commercial Vehicle Systems division in Europe will be<br />
posed by the prevailing high level of uncertainty over<br />
economic developments which, given the pronounced<br />
dependency of the commercial vehicle sector on the<br />
state of the economy, will be reflected in the order books.<br />
In one response to the higher level of market volatility,<br />
activities in markets of the future, such as Russia, China<br />
and India, will be stepped up − markets that are served in<br />
part from Europe, thereby helping to boost the region’s<br />
stability. In addition, selective expansion into new fields<br />
of activity is set to help drive the growth of the company’s<br />
business in the medium term. In all growth projects,<br />
the focus is on boosting customer benefits and extending<br />
our technology leadership, with the quality and reliability<br />
of all products taking top priority.<br />
In the North American OEM rail vehicle market, <strong>Knorr</strong>-<br />
<strong>Bremse</strong> is anticipating different developments in the<br />
freight and passenger sectors in 2013 and 2014. In the<br />
freight car segment, unit output is currently expected to<br />
show a downturn, due to falling worldwide demand for<br />
commodities and a sustained improvement in asset utilization<br />
of the existing fleet. In the locomotive segment,<br />
procurement volumes look set to remain stable. The<br />
mass transit segment will see major expansion and modernization<br />
projects driven forward in San Francisco and<br />
New York City, for example, so that positive market development<br />
in this segment can be forecast in the next few<br />
years.<br />
<strong>Knorr</strong>-<strong>Bremse</strong> is anticipating a moderate weakening of<br />
the North American commercial vehicle market in 2013,<br />
although the necessary replacement purchases could<br />
provide growth opportunities beginning in 2014. Aftermarket<br />
replacement purchases could generate growth<br />
in 2013, offsetting some of the truck build weakness expected.<br />
A US-based stability mandate expected to be<br />
effective in 2015 or 2016 continues to offer growth opportunities<br />
for Bendix ESP, as fleets recognize the value of<br />
full electronic stability compared to roll over only.