Annual Report 2012 - Knorr-Bremse AG.

34
Outlook
In the next two years, Knorr-Bremse is expecting to see
further volatility in markets around the world. In regional
terms the markets will probably continue to show divergent
developments. In Europe and the USA, high levels
of sovereign debt and the austerity policies adopted by
many countries are preventing any substantial growth
stimulus. And while forecasts predict continuing strong
growth for the emerging markets in South America and
Asia in particular, growth rates are expected to be far
lower than in recent years.
Against this backdrop, we are anticipating further moderate
global growth, albeit exposed to high risks and uncertainties
in the regional markets. The emerging markets
of Asia will probably continue to account for the
lion’s share of global economic growth in 2013 and 2014.
In industrialized countries, opportunities may arise by
agreement being reached on long-term measures to resolve
the sovereign debt crisis, leading to an easing of
restraints on capital expenditure at many companies in
these countries, which could provide additional impetus
for global growth.
In the European rail vehicle market, we are currently anticipating
a largely stable market environment for the
next two years. While the negative effects of the economic
crisis are evident in Spain, Portugal and Italy, Germany
presents a stable, high-level volume of procurement
across the various market segments. In Russia, the
UK and South Africa, which also forms part of the Group’s
“European” region, planned investments in a variety of
rail transportation projects are expected to generate further
growth. The rapidly progressing Middle Eastern region
will move further into the spotlight in view of the
projected expansion of the rail network.
In the European commercial vehicle sector, the market is
expected to shrink in 2013 and 2014. The volume of
trucks built in 2013 will probably be slightly down on the
prior-year level. In fiscal 2013, the main challenge for the
Commercial Vehicle Systems division in Europe will be
posed by the prevailing high level of uncertainty over
economic developments which, given the pronounced
dependency of the commercial vehicle sector on the
state of the economy, will be reflected in the order books.
In one response to the higher level of market volatility,
activities in markets of the future, such as Russia, China
and India, will be stepped up − markets that are served in
part from Europe, thereby helping to boost the region’s
stability. In addition, selective expansion into new fields
of activity is set to help drive the growth of the company’s
business in the medium term. In all growth projects,
the focus is on boosting customer benefits and extending
our technology leadership, with the quality and reliability
of all products taking top priority.
In the North American OEM rail vehicle market, Knorr-
Bremse is anticipating different developments in the
freight and passenger sectors in 2013 and 2014. In the
freight car segment, unit output is currently expected to
show a downturn, due to falling worldwide demand for
commodities and a sustained improvement in asset utilization
of the existing fleet. In the locomotive segment,
procurement volumes look set to remain stable. The
mass transit segment will see major expansion and modernization
projects driven forward in San Francisco and
New York City, for example, so that positive market development
in this segment can be forecast in the next few
years.
Knorr-Bremse is anticipating a moderate weakening of
the North American commercial vehicle market in 2013,
although the necessary replacement purchases could
provide growth opportunities beginning in 2014. Aftermarket
replacement purchases could generate growth
in 2013, offsetting some of the truck build weakness expected.
A US-based stability mandate expected to be
effective in 2015 or 2016 continues to offer growth opportunities
for Bendix ESP, as fleets recognize the value of
full electronic stability compared to roll over only.