BRIEFING FOR TROPICAL STORM SANDY - October 22 ... - ODPEM

BRIEFING FOR THE ACTING PRIME
MINISTER PETER PHILLIPS
AND MINISTER OF LOCAL
GOVERNMENT AND COMMUNITY
DEVELOPMENT HON. NOEL ARSCOT.
TROPICAL STORM SA NDY
The briefing for Tropical Storm Sandy is intended to provide information regarding the
preparations currently in place by National disaster response mechanism as at October
22 nd 2012.

INTRODUCTION
The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season as is customary began June 1 and continues
through to November 30. At this time of year in the latter part of the Hurricane
season, storms usually develop in the western Caribbean region then tend to take the
Northern – eastern track as they travel towards the North. However, when these
storms form in the western Caribbean their pattern of significant rainfall has been
known to cause flooding and significant damage to life and property.
In recent years Jamaica has been fortunate to escape direct landfall from hurricanes, its
last being Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. However, on its current track the centre of tropical
storm Sandy is projected to move towards Jamaica, from south to north, near midday
on Wednesday. At this stage it is imperative for us to address our preparedness in an
effort to be well poised for effective response.
This document is intended to provide an update as at Tuesday October 22 nd 2012 of
the state of preparedness in Jamaica for the impact of Tropical Storm Sandy. A scenario
has been developed to guide decision for shelter activation and priority areas for
emergency response.
National Emergency Operations
The Actions taken as outlined in the Hurricane SOP’s for actions in the pre- Impact stage.
These include: October 22 nd 2012
1. All PDCs have been notified/alerted and advised to alert all local agencies and
communities.
2. Key agencies JCF, JDF, JDFCG, Marine Police, JFB, NWA, Port Authority, Airport
Authority, Red Cross, MLSS have been notified.
3. ODPEM operational duty teams established
4. NEOC to be equipped for activation at 3:00PM tomorrow Tuesday October 23 rd
2012.
5. Radio Checks with parishes and HAM Radio Operations and other radio
personnel to be completed tomorrow Tuesday 23 rd October 2012
6. National Response Team meeting Scheduled for 11 am Tuesday 23 rd October at
the Ministry of Finance. Members of the national disaster committee have been
notified.
7. Relief supplies prepositioned in parishes
8. Arrangements for food supplies activated
9. Registration and Distribution centres to be identified by Parish Disaster
committees

10. ODPEM to brief United Nations Emergency Technical Team (UNETT) conducting
pre planning actions to support the national response.
Damage Assessment (Post Impact)
National Emergency Response GIS team (NERGIST) has been activated.
ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN OCTOBER 23 ND 2012
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
A contract person from JARA is to be assigned to communicate with ODPEM for parishes
that we anticipate will be significantly affected and without established CB associations.
This should be completed by Tuesday 23 rd October 2012
INTERNATIONAL SPACE CHARTER
Contact to be made with the international space agency to provide acquisition of
RADARSAT images for areas that may be impacted. These include the parishes on the
projected track Clarendon, St. Catherine, Kingston and St. Andrew St. Ann, St. Thomas,
Portland and St. Mary. Images will be taken of the island before and after the impact
of tropical storm Sandy to assist with the Damage Assessment process.

STATE OF PREPAREDNESS
As at Monday 22 nd October 2012 @ 7 pm
Jamaica Defence Force
Commenced implementation of severe weather preparations by initiating the securing
of critical assets and infrastructure
Morant Cay has been evacuated and Pedro Cays fisher folk have been warned to
commence preparation for evacuation;
JDF CG personnel at Pedro will be evacuated by Tuesday 23 Oct 12
Critical stores and equipment are being inventoried and serviced in advance of the
weather system
Jamaica Constabulary Force
Summary of JCF Preparedness
Hurricane Standing Orders activated.
Personnel placed on alert
Shelters identified
Tractors and trucks positioned at Area levels (Kingston, St. James, St. Ann, Manchester)
Standby generators at stations being checked. 2000 gallons of diesel on reserve.
Repeaters sites ( discussed with JDF) ridgers will in place to fix antennas if required
Base radios and portable available and serviceable
Anti-looting/vandalism plan in place
M R personnel pre-positioned in Areas 1, 3, 4 & 5.
Wet weather gears--most people equipped
Instructions issued for vehicles to be fueled
Instruction issued for contact to be made with parish disaster coordinators and local
authority
Plan to secure Assets
Divisional Commanders are to make plans to secure vital installations.
Ministry of Health

The Ministry of Health has advised its Head Office staff, Regional Health Authorities,
Parish Health Departments and health institutions of the Tropical Storm Watch. The
MOH National Emergency Operations Centre is already activated to direct, control and
coordinate the response to the dengue outbreak.
Plans have been reviewed and actions being taken at all levels include:1. Securing
facilities, equipment and supplies
2. Securing patients, staff and vital records
3. Patients who can be discharged are being sent home
4. All vehicles are being fuelled and made ready. Staff rosters are in place for all health
facilities and health EOCs at the regions, parishes and hospitals will be activated once
advised.

PARISH UPDATES PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM SANDY
STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR PARISHES TO DATE
As at Monday 22 nd October 2012 @ 7 pm
Clarendon
Zonal Team members in four (4) locations in position
Kellits:
Rocky Point:
Four Paths
Milk River
Mitchel Town:
Shelter Managers have been notified
Resource requirements: - adequate supplies in place
Manchester
Zonal Committees
Porus:
Devon:
Alligator Pond:
Shelter: Shelter Managers on standby
Resource requirements: None required
St. Elizabeth
Zonal Committees
New River :
Ginger Hill:
New Market:
Flagaman:
Black River:
Resource Required : None
Westmoreland
Zonal Committees
McNeil Lands
Resource Required: Mattresses

Kingston and St. Andrew
Zonal Committees:
Resource required: Tarpaulin, Plastic Sheeting, Mattresses
Shelter Managers have been notified
TROPICAL STORM SANDY PRE- IMPACT SCENARIO JAMAICA
Meteorological Update
TS Watch for Jamaica
Tropical Depression #18 has been upgraded to TS Sandy. The system is currently moving
southwestward and is forecast to move little in the next 24 hours. However, upper
atmospheric systems will influence the Depression to begin a northward track by Tuesday
and move toward Jamaica. The environment is highly conducive for strengthening and
the system could reach near hurricane-strength just before it arrives in Jamaica on
Wednesday.
Satellite Image
STORM FORECAST
Monday at 10:00 a.m. (Current)
Position: 13.5N, 78.5W
Centre approximately 515 km (320 miles) south-southwest of Kingston
Maximum sustained winds: 25 knots, gusting 35 knots.
Tuesday at 7:00 a.m.
Position: 14.3N, 78.1W
Centre approximately 440 km (270 miles) southwest of Kingston

Maximum sustained winds: 45 knots, gusting 55 knots.
Tuesday at 7:00 p.m.
Position: 15.7N, 77.6W
Centre approximately 270 km (168 miles) southwest Kingston
Maximum sustained winds: 55 knots, gusting 65 knots
Wind field: 50-knot winds possible in eastern half about to 30-40 nautical miles (approx.
35-46 miles).
34-knot winds possible in all quadrants but extends out to 60-80 nautical miles (approx.
70-81 miles) in the direction of Jamaica (northern quadrant).
Wednesday at 7:00 a.m.
Position: 17.4N, 77.0W
Centre approximately 70 km (44 miles) south-southwest of Kingston.
Maximum sustained winds: 60 knots, gusting 75 knots
Wind field: 50-knot winds possible in all quadrants but about to 30-40 nautical miles
(approx. 35-46 miles) in northern half.
34-knot winds possible in all quadrants extending outward to 70-90 nautical miles
(approx. 81-104 miles).
Wednesday at 12:00 noon (possible time of landfall)
Position: Centre makes landfall over Kingston Harbour.
5 Day forecast
Source: NOAA

POSSIBLE IMPACTS OVER JAMAICA
Given the anticipated development into a tropical storm several associated effects are
anticipated; rainfall, storm surge and wind effects.
The current track of the hurricane has the eye making landfall south-east of the island at
approximately midday somewhere in the in the vicinity of Kingston Harbour. The entire
island is expected to receive strong winds with a concentration in the east to south-eastern
end of the island.
The forecast track is not comparable to any that have affected Jamaica but Hurricane
Wilma tracked south west of the island before it moved in a northeasterly direction

RAINFALL /FLOODING
The NMS is forecasting 200 mm (8 inches) generally Tuesday but up to 300 mm (12
inches) on Wednesday. This amount of rainfall will result in flash flooding and the low
lying communities are to be on high alert. Similar amounts of rainfall were received
during the passage of hurricane Gustav. The table shows areas that received between
200mm (8inches) and over 300mm (12 inches +).
The level of flooding anticipated is comparable to Gustav for the following rainfall
stations:
Rainfall Data For Selected stations during the passage of Tropical Storm Gustav

Parish Station Highest 24 Hour Total(
Gustav)mm
Highest 24 Hour
Total( TD 16)mm
Kingston Lawrence Tavern 290
Mavis Bank 419
Norman Manley Airport 264.9 422
Stony Hill 256.9
St. Mary Castleton 234.3
Portland Moore Town 262.3
Shirley Castle 238.0
Fruitful Vale 277.9
CASE 49.8
Fair Prospect 265.2
Happy Grove 226.5
St. Thomas Duckenfield 320.7
Ramble 298.4
Nutts River 303.6
Belvedere 215.4
St. Catherine Worthy Park 225.0 308
New Works 243.0
Wakefield 243.0
Swansea 465.5
Clarendon Beckford Kraal 214.0 626
Verna field 112.0
Key assumptions for identifying areas to be impacted by flooding:
the entire island will be covered by Tropical Storm Sandy so all sections of the
island will receive rainfall
Areas located closer to the eye of the systems will receive more intense showers
Rainfall will range between 200mm – 300mm
Parishes Likely to Be Worst Affected
Given the assumptions the following parishes are likely to be more severely impacted by
the system:
a. Clarendon,
b. St Ann,
c. KSA
d. Portland

e. St Thomas
f. St Mary and
g. St Catherine
Parish
Population
Clarendon 72891
Specifically communities that have a history of flooding in
these parishes may be affected by flooding and are
illustrated in the map below.
St Ann 24,835
KSA 30457
Portland 32528
St Catherine 143,104
St Thomas 33,141
St Mary 31,927
TOTAL 368,883
Clarendon
Communities that lie within the flood zone of the Rio Minho River could become
impacted mainly by flooding. These communities are located in the southern half of
Clarendon. Conversely, communities in northern Clarendon may be impacted by
landslide.
Parish Communities Impact Population
Clarendon Alley Flooding
Rocky Point
Flooding
Water Lane Flooding 2063
Rocky Point Flooding 5148
Portland Cottage Flooding 2665
York Town Flooding 4271
Old Denbigh Flooding 2586
Glenmuir Flooding 4065
Palmers Cross Flooding 8068
Paisley Flooding 2509
Hazard Flooding 3372
Curatoe Hill Flooding 3949
Mineral Heights Flooding 3751
Hayes Flooding 15375
Gimme-me-bit Flooding 2018
Race Course Flooding 4055

Banks Flooding 1541
Lionel Town Flooding 3567
Mitchell Town Flooding 1749
Longwood Flooding 1089
Alley Flooding 1050
TOTAL 72891

St Ann
Communities in St Ann could become inundated. The impacts could be concentrated in
the following communities based on history and frequency.
Parish Communities Impact Population
St Ann Ocho Rios Flooding 5882
Parry Town Flooding 1786
Shaw Park Flooding -
Chester Flooding -
Lime Hall Flooding 6066
Moneague Flooding 4215
Cave Valley Flooding 2872
Walkers Wood Flooding 1593
Bohemia Flooding 2254
Borobridge Flooding 167
TOTAL 24835
Kingston & St Andrew
Recently with the passage of a trough on September 29, 2012 and number of
communities in KSA were impacted. A number of communities, due to repeated impacts,
are threatened and based on current condition, significant devastation could occur. These
include Grovedale Avenue, Sandy Park and Tavern/Kintyre.
Infrastructure/Communities Impacted on September 29, 2012 (Trough)
Kingston & Havendale – Coolshade Flooded
St Andrew Drive
Hagley Park to Three Miles Flooded
Maxfield Avenue
Flooded
Tavern & Kintyre
Footbridge that links both
communities washed away
Sandy Gully (Grovedale &
Drumblair)
Gully severely scoured and has
worsened significantly since
TS Gustav. 1 household
evacuated & others threatened
Sandy Park/Liguanea Gully severely scoured –
houses threatened
Other Communities in KSA likely to be impacted are:
Parish Communities Impact Population
KSA Tavern Flooding 1176
Kintyre Flooding 1609

Bull Bay: Flooding 17810
7 - 10 Miles Flooding
10 Miles Flooding
Taylor Land/Weise Flooding
Road
New Haven Flooding 4881
Gordon Town/Mammee Flooding 3396
River
Grovedale & Sandy Park Flooding
TOTAL 30,457
Portland
Parish Communities Impact Population
Portland Anchovy
Buff Bay 4911
Port Antonio 4939
Burbank
Bybrook 709
Windsor 1924
Spring Garden
Chepstowe 1073
Breastworks 3223
Rio Grande Valley
St Margaret’s Bay
Millbank &
surrounding
communities
Swift River 393
Fellowship/Berridale 1891
Non Such 2763
Prospect land
6354
Settlement
Fruitfulvale 2366
Sherwood Forest 1980
TOTAL 32,528
St Catherine
Parish Communities Impact Population
St. Catherine Nightingale Grove Flooding
Bushy Park Flooding 3,373

Hill Run/Hartlands Flooding
Waterloo
Flooding
Flooding
Red Pond/Bullet Tree Flooding
Bog Walk Flooding 14,071
Linstead Flooding 39,157
Old Harbour Flooding 35,405
Old Harbour Bay Flooding 6,623
Spanish Town Flooding 22,075
Lauriston
Thompson Pen
Fairview
Flooding 2150
1448
5176
St Johns Road
Winters Pen
Railway Lane
Jobs Lane
Waterloo
Flooding
Sligoville Flooding 4,903
Winters Pen
Flooding
Omeally
Landslide
Free Town
Flooding
Barry
Flooding
Keystone Flooding 3,460
Ginger Ridge
Old Harbour Road 5,263
TOTAL 143,104
St Thomas
Parish Communities impact Population
St Thomas Cedar Valley 7388
Wheelersfield 974
Golden Grove 2613
Trinityville 2334
Poor Man’s Corner 3965
Yallahs 9852
Danvers Pen 1560
Bath 2139
Easingston 2316
TOTAL 33141

Parish Communities Impact Population
St Mary Mango Valley Flooding 762
Oracabessa Landslide 8106
Jacks River Flooding 1627
Sandside Flooding 1884
Dover Flooding 483
Broadgate Flooding 1210
Devon Pen Landslide 75
Annotto Bay Flooding 5669
Highgate Flooding 9500
Robins Bay Flooding 528
Baileysvale Flooding/Landslide 2083
TOTAL 31,927
STORM SURGE
Given the approach of the storm from directly south, communities along the southern
coastline could be impacted by storm surge.
The NMS is forecasting that surge heights could be in the vicinity of 1-2 metres on
Wednesday morning mainly along the southeastern coastline
Communities in St Catherine, KSA and Clarendon are likely to be affected.
Parish Communities Population
St Catherine Old Harbour Bay 7388
Hellshire
Port Henderson
Road/For Augusta
Clarendon Portland Cottage 2665
Hunters Village
Mitchell Town 1749
KSA
Caribbean Terrace
TOTAL 11, 802

Clarendon
Based on the storm surge models prepared in 2010 by Smith Warner International and
PIOJ. The following communities are located in the 1:25 year storm surge boundary:
Mitchell Town,
Hunters Village,
Harmony Hall,
Portland Cottage,
Retirement and Lowe’s Corner.
Surge heights in the 25 year boundary could be up to 2.9m.
Historically, Portland Cottage has been affected twice by storm surge. Given that the
system could be generating waves from directly south, other areas could be impact
however, the forecast of for smaller surges.

St Catherine
Historically
Old Harbor Bay,
Hellshire and
Port Henderson Road has been affected by storm surges.
Of the three communities, Old
Harbour was the worst to be affected
in 2004 by the passage of Hurricane
Ivan with surge height estimated to
be as much as 4m. Surge height is
not expected to be as significant and
so the distance propagated inland
may not be as deep as Hurricane
Ivan.
Flood Extent Associated with Hurricane Ivan, 2004
WIND
Tropical storm force winds are likely mainly across central and eastern parts of the
island; stronger across eastern parishes where the centre is forecast to track. Effects
mainly for central and eastern parishes: trees down to major damage possible across
particularly over eastern parishes. For other sections of the island: trees swaying.
Down utility poles and wires and traffic lights could be affected. Despite the tropical
storm forecast, strong gusts could affect roofs and crops.
MICRO-BURSTS
In previous tropical weather systems, micro-bursts have been known to occur. No precise
location can be forecast for this phenomenon. During the trough of September 29, a
microburst occurred in the Cockpit area of Clarendon.

SUMMARY
Central and eastern parishes are projected to take the worst hit from the storm
Flooding is expected to affect approximately 368,883 persons with expected rainfall greater than 200mm
St Catherine is project to have the largest population affected
Approximately 12,000 persons are expected to be affected by storm surge in KSA, St Catherine & Clarendon
Micro-bursts maybe expected with the storm
2. EXISTING COMMUNITY RESPONSE TEAMS ACTIVATED IN COMMUNITIES LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
Existing Community Emergency Response Teams
SOUTHERN REGION
Clarendon 1. Four Paths
2. Mitchell Town
3. Rocky Point
4. Kellits
5. Milk River
6. Amity Hall
7. Toll Gate
Manchester 1. Devon
2. Alligator Pond
3. Asia

4. Marlie Hill
St. Elizabeth 1. Flagaman
2. Black River
3. New River (Santa Cruz)
4. Ginger Hill
5. Thornton
WESTERN REGION
Westmoreland 1. Whitehouse
2. Smithfield
3. McNeil Lands
4. New Roads
5. Little London
6. Hatfield
Hanover 1. Green Island
2. Brissett
3. Chigwell
4. Sandy Bay
Trelawny 1. Zion (Martha Brae)
2. Clarkes Town
3. Salt Marsh
4. Rio Bueno
St James 1. Adlephi
2. Jonhs Hall
3. Tangle River
4. Comfort Hall

5. Bullock Heights
6. Sommerton