BRIEFING FOR TROPICAL STORM SANDY - October 22 ... - ODPEM
BRIEFING FOR TROPICAL STORM SANDY - October 22 ... - ODPEM
BRIEFING FOR TROPICAL STORM SANDY - October 22 ... - ODPEM
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<strong>BRIEFING</strong> <strong>FOR</strong> THE ACTING PRIME<br />
MINISTER PETER PHILLIPS<br />
AND MINISTER OF LOCAL<br />
GOVERNMENT AND COMMUNITY<br />
DEVELOPMENT HON. NOEL ARSCOT.<br />
<strong>TROPICAL</strong> <strong>STORM</strong> SA NDY<br />
The briefing for Tropical Storm Sandy is intended to provide information regarding the<br />
preparations currently in place by National disaster response mechanism as at <strong>October</strong><br />
<strong>22</strong> nd 2012.
INTRODUCTION<br />
The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season as is customary began June 1 and continues<br />
through to November 30. At this time of year in the latter part of the Hurricane<br />
season, storms usually develop in the western Caribbean region then tend to take the<br />
Northern – eastern track as they travel towards the North. However, when these<br />
storms form in the western Caribbean their pattern of significant rainfall has been<br />
known to cause flooding and significant damage to life and property.<br />
In recent years Jamaica has been fortunate to escape direct landfall from hurricanes, its<br />
last being Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. However, on its current track the centre of tropical<br />
storm Sandy is projected to move towards Jamaica, from south to north, near midday<br />
on Wednesday. At this stage it is imperative for us to address our preparedness in an<br />
effort to be well poised for effective response.<br />
This document is intended to provide an update as at Tuesday <strong>October</strong> <strong>22</strong> nd 2012 of<br />
the state of preparedness in Jamaica for the impact of Tropical Storm Sandy. A scenario<br />
has been developed to guide decision for shelter activation and priority areas for<br />
emergency response.<br />
National Emergency Operations<br />
The Actions taken as outlined in the Hurricane SOP’s for actions in the pre- Impact stage.<br />
These include: <strong>October</strong> <strong>22</strong> nd 2012<br />
1. All PDCs have been notified/alerted and advised to alert all local agencies and<br />
communities.<br />
2. Key agencies JCF, JDF, JDFCG, Marine Police, JFB, NWA, Port Authority, Airport<br />
Authority, Red Cross, MLSS have been notified.<br />
3. <strong>ODPEM</strong> operational duty teams established<br />
4. NEOC to be equipped for activation at 3:00PM tomorrow Tuesday <strong>October</strong> 23 rd<br />
2012.<br />
5. Radio Checks with parishes and HAM Radio Operations and other radio<br />
personnel to be completed tomorrow Tuesday 23 rd <strong>October</strong> 2012<br />
6. National Response Team meeting Scheduled for 11 am Tuesday 23 rd <strong>October</strong> at<br />
the Ministry of Finance. Members of the national disaster committee have been<br />
notified.<br />
7. Relief supplies prepositioned in parishes<br />
8. Arrangements for food supplies activated<br />
9. Registration and Distribution centres to be identified by Parish Disaster<br />
committees
10. <strong>ODPEM</strong> to brief United Nations Emergency Technical Team (UNETT) conducting<br />
pre planning actions to support the national response.<br />
Damage Assessment (Post Impact)<br />
National Emergency Response GIS team (NERGIST) has been activated.<br />
ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN OCTOBER 23 ND 2012<br />
TELECOMMUNICATIONS<br />
A contract person from JARA is to be assigned to communicate with <strong>ODPEM</strong> for parishes<br />
that we anticipate will be significantly affected and without established CB associations.<br />
This should be completed by Tuesday 23 rd <strong>October</strong> 2012<br />
INTERNATIONAL SPACE CHARTER<br />
Contact to be made with the international space agency to provide acquisition of<br />
RADARSAT images for areas that may be impacted. These include the parishes on the<br />
projected track Clarendon, St. Catherine, Kingston and St. Andrew St. Ann, St. Thomas,<br />
Portland and St. Mary. Images will be taken of the island before and after the impact<br />
of tropical storm Sandy to assist with the Damage Assessment process.
STATE OF PREPAREDNESS<br />
As at Monday <strong>22</strong> nd <strong>October</strong> 2012 @ 7 pm<br />
Jamaica Defence Force<br />
Commenced implementation of severe weather preparations by initiating the securing<br />
of critical assets and infrastructure<br />
Morant Cay has been evacuated and Pedro Cays fisher folk have been warned to<br />
commence preparation for evacuation;<br />
JDF CG personnel at Pedro will be evacuated by Tuesday 23 Oct 12<br />
Critical stores and equipment are being inventoried and serviced in advance of the<br />
weather system<br />
Jamaica Constabulary Force<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Summary of JCF Preparedness<br />
Hurricane Standing Orders activated.<br />
Personnel placed on alert<br />
Shelters identified<br />
Tractors and trucks positioned at Area levels (Kingston, St. James, St. Ann, Manchester)<br />
Standby generators at stations being checked. 2000 gallons of diesel on reserve.<br />
Repeaters sites ( discussed with JDF) ridgers will in place to fix antennas if required<br />
Base radios and portable available and serviceable<br />
Anti-looting/vandalism plan in place<br />
M R personnel pre-positioned in Areas 1, 3, 4 & 5.<br />
Wet weather gears--most people equipped<br />
Instructions issued for vehicles to be fueled<br />
Instruction issued for contact to be made with parish disaster coordinators and local<br />
authority<br />
Plan to secure Assets<br />
Divisional Commanders are to make plans to secure vital installations.<br />
Ministry of Health
The Ministry of Health has advised its Head Office staff, Regional Health Authorities,<br />
Parish Health Departments and health institutions of the Tropical Storm Watch. The<br />
MOH National Emergency Operations Centre is already activated to direct, control and<br />
coordinate the response to the dengue outbreak.<br />
Plans have been reviewed and actions being taken at all levels include:1. Securing<br />
facilities, equipment and supplies<br />
2. Securing patients, staff and vital records<br />
3. Patients who can be discharged are being sent home<br />
4. All vehicles are being fuelled and made ready. Staff rosters are in place for all health<br />
facilities and health EOCs at the regions, parishes and hospitals will be activated once<br />
advised.
PARISH UPDATES PREPARATIONS <strong>FOR</strong> <strong>TROPICAL</strong> <strong>STORM</strong> <strong>SANDY</strong><br />
STATE OF PREPAREDNESS <strong>FOR</strong> PARISHES TO DATE<br />
As at Monday <strong>22</strong> nd <strong>October</strong> 2012 @ 7 pm<br />
Clarendon<br />
Zonal Team members in four (4) locations in position<br />
Kellits:<br />
Rocky Point:<br />
Four Paths<br />
Milk River<br />
Mitchel Town:<br />
Shelter Managers have been notified<br />
Resource requirements: - adequate supplies in place<br />
Manchester<br />
Zonal Committees<br />
Porus:<br />
Devon:<br />
Alligator Pond:<br />
Shelter: Shelter Managers on standby<br />
Resource requirements: None required<br />
St. Elizabeth<br />
Zonal Committees<br />
New River :<br />
Ginger Hill:<br />
New Market:<br />
Flagaman:<br />
Black River:<br />
Resource Required : None<br />
Westmoreland<br />
Zonal Committees<br />
McNeil Lands<br />
Resource Required: Mattresses
Kingston and St. Andrew<br />
Zonal Committees:<br />
Resource required: Tarpaulin, Plastic Sheeting, Mattresses<br />
Shelter Managers have been notified<br />
<strong>TROPICAL</strong> <strong>STORM</strong> <strong>SANDY</strong> PRE- IMPACT SCENARIO JAMAICA<br />
Meteorological Update<br />
TS Watch for Jamaica<br />
Tropical Depression #18 has been upgraded to TS Sandy. The system is currently moving<br />
southwestward and is forecast to move little in the next 24 hours. However, upper<br />
atmospheric systems will influence the Depression to begin a northward track by Tuesday<br />
and move toward Jamaica. The environment is highly conducive for strengthening and<br />
the system could reach near hurricane-strength just before it arrives in Jamaica on<br />
Wednesday.<br />
Satellite Image<br />
<strong>STORM</strong> <strong>FOR</strong>ECAST<br />
Monday at 10:00 a.m. (Current)<br />
Position: 13.5N, 78.5W<br />
Centre approximately 515 km (320 miles) south-southwest of Kingston<br />
Maximum sustained winds: 25 knots, gusting 35 knots.<br />
Tuesday at 7:00 a.m.<br />
Position: 14.3N, 78.1W<br />
Centre approximately 440 km (270 miles) southwest of Kingston
Maximum sustained winds: 45 knots, gusting 55 knots.<br />
Tuesday at 7:00 p.m.<br />
Position: 15.7N, 77.6W<br />
Centre approximately 270 km (168 miles) southwest Kingston<br />
Maximum sustained winds: 55 knots, gusting 65 knots<br />
Wind field: 50-knot winds possible in eastern half about to 30-40 nautical miles (approx.<br />
35-46 miles).<br />
34-knot winds possible in all quadrants but extends out to 60-80 nautical miles (approx.<br />
70-81 miles) in the direction of Jamaica (northern quadrant).<br />
Wednesday at 7:00 a.m.<br />
Position: 17.4N, 77.0W<br />
Centre approximately 70 km (44 miles) south-southwest of Kingston.<br />
Maximum sustained winds: 60 knots, gusting 75 knots<br />
Wind field: 50-knot winds possible in all quadrants but about to 30-40 nautical miles<br />
(approx. 35-46 miles) in northern half.<br />
34-knot winds possible in all quadrants extending outward to 70-90 nautical miles<br />
(approx. 81-104 miles).<br />
Wednesday at 12:00 noon (possible time of landfall)<br />
Position: Centre makes landfall over Kingston Harbour.<br />
5 Day forecast<br />
Source: NOAA
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OVER JAMAICA<br />
Given the anticipated development into a tropical storm several associated effects are<br />
anticipated; rainfall, storm surge and wind effects.<br />
The current track of the hurricane has the eye making landfall south-east of the island at<br />
approximately midday somewhere in the in the vicinity of Kingston Harbour. The entire<br />
island is expected to receive strong winds with a concentration in the east to south-eastern<br />
end of the island.<br />
The forecast track is not comparable to any that have affected Jamaica but Hurricane<br />
Wilma tracked south west of the island before it moved in a northeasterly direction
RAINFALL /FLOODING<br />
The NMS is forecasting 200 mm (8 inches) generally Tuesday but up to 300 mm (12<br />
inches) on Wednesday. This amount of rainfall will result in flash flooding and the low<br />
lying communities are to be on high alert. Similar amounts of rainfall were received<br />
during the passage of hurricane Gustav. The table shows areas that received between<br />
200mm (8inches) and over 300mm (12 inches +).<br />
The level of flooding anticipated is comparable to Gustav for the following rainfall<br />
stations:<br />
Rainfall Data For Selected stations during the passage of Tropical Storm Gustav
Parish Station Highest 24 Hour Total(<br />
Gustav)mm<br />
Highest 24 Hour<br />
Total( TD 16)mm<br />
Kingston Lawrence Tavern 290<br />
Mavis Bank 419<br />
Norman Manley Airport 264.9 4<strong>22</strong><br />
Stony Hill 256.9<br />
St. Mary Castleton 234.3<br />
Portland Moore Town 262.3<br />
Shirley Castle 238.0<br />
Fruitful Vale 277.9<br />
CASE 49.8<br />
Fair Prospect 265.2<br />
Happy Grove <strong>22</strong>6.5<br />
St. Thomas Duckenfield 320.7<br />
Ramble 298.4<br />
Nutts River 303.6<br />
Belvedere 215.4<br />
St. Catherine Worthy Park <strong>22</strong>5.0 308<br />
New Works 243.0<br />
Wakefield 243.0<br />
Swansea 465.5<br />
Clarendon Beckford Kraal 214.0 626<br />
Verna field 112.0<br />
Key assumptions for identifying areas to be impacted by flooding:<br />
the entire island will be covered by Tropical Storm Sandy so all sections of the<br />
island will receive rainfall<br />
Areas located closer to the eye of the systems will receive more intense showers<br />
Rainfall will range between 200mm – 300mm<br />
Parishes Likely to Be Worst Affected<br />
Given the assumptions the following parishes are likely to be more severely impacted by<br />
the system:<br />
a. Clarendon,<br />
b. St Ann,<br />
c. KSA<br />
d. Portland
e. St Thomas<br />
f. St Mary and<br />
g. St Catherine<br />
Parish<br />
Population<br />
Clarendon 72891<br />
Specifically communities that have a history of flooding in<br />
these parishes may be affected by flooding and are<br />
illustrated in the map below.<br />
St Ann 24,835<br />
KSA 30457<br />
Portland 32528<br />
St Catherine 143,104<br />
St Thomas 33,141<br />
St Mary 31,927<br />
TOTAL 368,883<br />
Clarendon<br />
Communities that lie within the flood zone of the Rio Minho River could become<br />
impacted mainly by flooding. These communities are located in the southern half of<br />
Clarendon. Conversely, communities in northern Clarendon may be impacted by<br />
landslide.<br />
Parish Communities Impact Population<br />
Clarendon Alley Flooding<br />
Rocky Point<br />
Flooding<br />
Water Lane Flooding 2063<br />
Rocky Point Flooding 5148<br />
Portland Cottage Flooding 2665<br />
York Town Flooding 4271<br />
Old Denbigh Flooding 2586<br />
Glenmuir Flooding 4065<br />
Palmers Cross Flooding 8068<br />
Paisley Flooding 2509<br />
Hazard Flooding 3372<br />
Curatoe Hill Flooding 3949<br />
Mineral Heights Flooding 3751<br />
Hayes Flooding 15375<br />
Gimme-me-bit Flooding 2018<br />
Race Course Flooding 4055
Banks Flooding 1541<br />
Lionel Town Flooding 3567<br />
Mitchell Town Flooding 1749<br />
Longwood Flooding 1089<br />
Alley Flooding 1050<br />
TOTAL 72891
St Ann<br />
Communities in St Ann could become inundated. The impacts could be concentrated in<br />
the following communities based on history and frequency.<br />
Parish Communities Impact Population<br />
St Ann Ocho Rios Flooding 5882<br />
Parry Town Flooding 1786<br />
Shaw Park Flooding -<br />
Chester Flooding -<br />
Lime Hall Flooding 6066<br />
Moneague Flooding 4215<br />
Cave Valley Flooding 2872<br />
Walkers Wood Flooding 1593<br />
Bohemia Flooding <strong>22</strong>54<br />
Borobridge Flooding 167<br />
TOTAL 24835<br />
Kingston & St Andrew<br />
Recently with the passage of a trough on September 29, 2012 and number of<br />
communities in KSA were impacted. A number of communities, due to repeated impacts,<br />
are threatened and based on current condition, significant devastation could occur. These<br />
include Grovedale Avenue, Sandy Park and Tavern/Kintyre.<br />
Infrastructure/Communities Impacted on September 29, 2012 (Trough)<br />
Kingston & Havendale – Coolshade Flooded<br />
St Andrew Drive<br />
Hagley Park to Three Miles Flooded<br />
Maxfield Avenue<br />
Flooded<br />
Tavern & Kintyre<br />
Footbridge that links both<br />
communities washed away<br />
Sandy Gully (Grovedale &<br />
Drumblair)<br />
Gully severely scoured and has<br />
worsened significantly since<br />
TS Gustav. 1 household<br />
evacuated & others threatened<br />
Sandy Park/Liguanea Gully severely scoured –<br />
houses threatened<br />
Other Communities in KSA likely to be impacted are:<br />
Parish Communities Impact Population<br />
KSA Tavern Flooding 1176<br />
Kintyre Flooding 1609
Bull Bay: Flooding 17810<br />
7 - 10 Miles Flooding<br />
10 Miles Flooding<br />
Taylor Land/Weise Flooding<br />
Road<br />
New Haven Flooding 4881<br />
Gordon Town/Mammee Flooding 3396<br />
River<br />
Grovedale & Sandy Park Flooding<br />
TOTAL 30,457<br />
Portland<br />
Parish Communities Impact Population<br />
Portland Anchovy<br />
Buff Bay 4911<br />
Port Antonio 4939<br />
Burbank<br />
Bybrook 709<br />
Windsor 1924<br />
Spring Garden<br />
Chepstowe 1073<br />
Breastworks 3<strong>22</strong>3<br />
Rio Grande Valley<br />
St Margaret’s Bay<br />
Millbank &<br />
surrounding<br />
communities<br />
Swift River 393<br />
Fellowship/Berridale 1891<br />
Non Such 2763<br />
Prospect land<br />
6354<br />
Settlement<br />
Fruitfulvale 2366<br />
Sherwood Forest 1980<br />
TOTAL 32,528<br />
St Catherine<br />
Parish Communities Impact Population<br />
St. Catherine Nightingale Grove Flooding<br />
Bushy Park Flooding 3,373
Hill Run/Hartlands Flooding<br />
Waterloo<br />
Flooding<br />
Flooding<br />
Red Pond/Bullet Tree Flooding<br />
Bog Walk Flooding 14,071<br />
Linstead Flooding 39,157<br />
Old Harbour Flooding 35,405<br />
Old Harbour Bay Flooding 6,623<br />
Spanish Town Flooding <strong>22</strong>,075<br />
Lauriston<br />
Thompson Pen<br />
Fairview<br />
Flooding 2150<br />
1448<br />
5176<br />
St Johns Road<br />
Winters Pen<br />
Railway Lane<br />
Jobs Lane<br />
Waterloo<br />
Flooding<br />
Sligoville Flooding 4,903<br />
Winters Pen<br />
Flooding<br />
Omeally<br />
Landslide<br />
Free Town<br />
Flooding<br />
Barry<br />
Flooding<br />
Keystone Flooding 3,460<br />
Ginger Ridge<br />
Old Harbour Road 5,263<br />
TOTAL 143,104<br />
St Thomas<br />
Parish Communities impact Population<br />
St Thomas Cedar Valley 7388<br />
Wheelersfield 974<br />
Golden Grove 2613<br />
Trinityville 2334<br />
Poor Man’s Corner 3965<br />
Yallahs 9852<br />
Danvers Pen 1560<br />
Bath 2139<br />
Easingston 2316<br />
TOTAL 33141
Parish Communities Impact Population<br />
St Mary Mango Valley Flooding 762<br />
Oracabessa Landslide 8106<br />
Jacks River Flooding 1627<br />
Sandside Flooding 1884<br />
Dover Flooding 483<br />
Broadgate Flooding 1210<br />
Devon Pen Landslide 75<br />
Annotto Bay Flooding 5669<br />
Highgate Flooding 9500<br />
Robins Bay Flooding 528<br />
Baileysvale Flooding/Landslide 2083<br />
TOTAL 31,927<br />
<strong>STORM</strong> SURGE<br />
Given the approach of the storm from directly south, communities along the southern<br />
coastline could be impacted by storm surge.<br />
The NMS is forecasting that surge heights could be in the vicinity of 1-2 metres on<br />
Wednesday morning mainly along the southeastern coastline<br />
Communities in St Catherine, KSA and Clarendon are likely to be affected.<br />
Parish Communities Population<br />
St Catherine Old Harbour Bay 7388<br />
Hellshire<br />
Port Henderson<br />
Road/For Augusta<br />
Clarendon Portland Cottage 2665<br />
Hunters Village<br />
Mitchell Town 1749<br />
KSA<br />
Caribbean Terrace<br />
TOTAL 11, 802
Clarendon<br />
Based on the storm surge models prepared in 2010 by Smith Warner International and<br />
PIOJ. The following communities are located in the 1:25 year storm surge boundary:<br />
Mitchell Town,<br />
Hunters Village,<br />
Harmony Hall,<br />
Portland Cottage,<br />
Retirement and Lowe’s Corner.<br />
Surge heights in the 25 year boundary could be up to 2.9m.<br />
Historically, Portland Cottage has been affected twice by storm surge. Given that the<br />
system could be generating waves from directly south, other areas could be impact<br />
however, the forecast of for smaller surges.
St Catherine<br />
Historically<br />
Old Harbor Bay,<br />
Hellshire and<br />
Port Henderson Road has been affected by storm surges.<br />
Of the three communities, Old<br />
Harbour was the worst to be affected<br />
in 2004 by the passage of Hurricane<br />
Ivan with surge height estimated to<br />
be as much as 4m. Surge height is<br />
not expected to be as significant and<br />
so the distance propagated inland<br />
may not be as deep as Hurricane<br />
Ivan.<br />
Flood Extent Associated with Hurricane Ivan, 2004<br />
WIND<br />
Tropical storm force winds are likely mainly across central and eastern parts of the<br />
island; stronger across eastern parishes where the centre is forecast to track. Effects<br />
mainly for central and eastern parishes: trees down to major damage possible across<br />
particularly over eastern parishes. For other sections of the island: trees swaying.<br />
Down utility poles and wires and traffic lights could be affected. Despite the tropical<br />
storm forecast, strong gusts could affect roofs and crops.<br />
MICRO-BURSTS<br />
In previous tropical weather systems, micro-bursts have been known to occur. No precise<br />
location can be forecast for this phenomenon. During the trough of September 29, a<br />
microburst occurred in the Cockpit area of Clarendon.
SUMMARY<br />
Central and eastern parishes are projected to take the worst hit from the storm<br />
Flooding is expected to affect approximately 368,883 persons with expected rainfall greater than 200mm<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
St Catherine is project to have the largest population affected<br />
Approximately 12,000 persons are expected to be affected by storm surge in KSA, St Catherine & Clarendon<br />
Micro-bursts maybe expected with the storm<br />
2. EXISTING COMMUNITY RESPONSE TEAMS ACTIVATED IN COMMUNITIES LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED<br />
Existing Community Emergency Response Teams<br />
SOUTHERN REGION<br />
Clarendon 1. Four Paths<br />
2. Mitchell Town<br />
3. Rocky Point<br />
4. Kellits<br />
5. Milk River<br />
6. Amity Hall<br />
7. Toll Gate<br />
Manchester 1. Devon<br />
2. Alligator Pond<br />
3. Asia
4. Marlie Hill<br />
St. Elizabeth 1. Flagaman<br />
2. Black River<br />
3. New River (Santa Cruz)<br />
4. Ginger Hill<br />
5. Thornton<br />
WESTERN REGION<br />
Westmoreland 1. Whitehouse<br />
2. Smithfield<br />
3. McNeil Lands<br />
4. New Roads<br />
5. Little London<br />
6. Hatfield<br />
Hanover 1. Green Island<br />
2. Brissett<br />
3. Chigwell<br />
4. Sandy Bay<br />
Trelawny 1. Zion (Martha Brae)<br />
2. Clarkes Town<br />
3. Salt Marsh<br />
4. Rio Bueno<br />
St James 1. Adlephi<br />
2. Jonhs Hall<br />
3. Tangle River<br />
4. Comfort Hall
5. Bullock Heights<br />
6. Sommerton