Small/Mid Cap Strategy and Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...

Regional Small/Mid Cap Strategy Q2 2008
Earnings Guide
MALAYSIA: EARNINGS GUIDE
FYE Mkt Mkt Price Target Share Price Avg CAGR EV/EBITDA Price/ Price/ Dividend Yield Net Debt
Company Cap Cap (RM) Price % Performance (%) 6-mth Net Profit (Before EI) EPS (Sen) 07-09 PE (x)
(x) BV x Sales x (%) /Equity ROA ROE Disclosure
(RMm) (US$m) 25-Mar (RM) Upside Rcmd 3M 6M 12M Vol (m) 07 08F 09F 08F 09F (%) 08F 09F 08F 09F 08F 08F 08F 09F 07 07 07 Analyst Legend
Banks
AMMB Hings Mar 9,572 2,996 3.58 5.75 61% B -3 -12 -2 6.4 (204) 616 889 25.1 36.2 n.m 14.3x 9.9x n.a. n.a. 1.4x n.a. 4.0% 5.1% cash (0.1%) (4%) Lim Sue Lin
Bumiputra-Commerce Dec 33,203 10,392 9.85 12.90 31% B -8 -10 -2 7.1 2,793 2,935 3,190 82.1 89.2 19 12.0x 11.0x n.a. n.a. 2.0x n.a. 3.5% 3.5% cash 1.7% 20% Lim Sue Lin
Hong Leong Bank Jun 9,244 2,893 5.85 8.10 38% B -6 -2 -5 0.9 619 796 909 50.4 57.5 21 11.6x 10.2x n.a. n.a. 1.8x n.a. 3.0% 3.1% cash 0.9% 14% Lim Sue Lin
Maybank Jun 43,681 13,672 8.95 8.10 -9% FV -5 -1 -11 5.6 3,178 3,301 3,410 67.8 69.9 3 13.2x 12.8x n.a. n.a. 2.1x n.a. 5.2% 5.0% cash 1.4% 18% Lim Sue Lin
Public Bank-Foreign Dec 36,732 11,497 10.40 13.20 27% B -6 -1 11 1.6 2,124 2,481 2,875 81.7 94.6 16 12.7x 11.0x n.a. n.a. 3.3x n.a. 7.1% 8.6% cash 1.4% 23% Lim Sue Lin
RHB Capital Dec 10,251 3,208 4.76 7.40 55% B -16 -21 0 0.7 775 941 1,026 43.7 47.7 11 10.9x 10.0x n.a. n.a. 1.3x n.a. 2.0% 2.3% cash 1.0% 13% Lim Sue Lin
EON Capital Dec 3,078 963 4.44 6.80 53% H -31 -35 -34 0.6 263 309 345 44.5 49.8 15 10.0x 8.9x n.a. n.a. 0.9x n.a. 2.7% 2.7% cash 0.6% 7% Lim Sue Lin
Sector 145,761 45,621 9,549 11,379 12,644 12.8x 11.5x
Consumer
Eng Kah Dec 185 58 3.00 2.95 -2% H -3 -11 -20 0.1 14 17 20 27.2 32.5 18 11.0x 9.2x 5.7x 4.5x 1.6x 2.3x 6.3% 6.3% cash 13% 15% Azida Nor-Azizi
Parkson Hings Bhd Jun 5,481 1,716 5.55 11.80 113% B -43 -30 4 2.1 159 211 290 21.8 30.0 35 25.4x 18.5x 10.0x 7.5x 5.8x 2.1x 1.2% 1.2% 0.67 4% 18% Team Coverage
Pelikan International Dec 987 309 3.38 5.70 69% B -19 -27 -26 0.3 111 128 143 45.1 50.5 14 7.5x 6.7x 5.9x 5.2x 1.5x 0.8x 3.9% 4.4% 0.44 9% 24% Chong Lee Len
Sector 6,654 2,083 284 356 454 18.7x 14.7x
Manufacturing/ Industrial
Engtex Group Dec 106 33 0.54 1.00 87% B -21 -28 -15 0.5 18 21 22 9.4 9.1 -1 5.7x 5.9x 6.1x 5.9x 0.6x 0.2x 3.4% 3.3% 1.02 4% 11% Azida Nor-Azizi
Evergreen Fibreboard Dec 624 195 1.30 2.50 92% B -24 -26 -1 0.7 112 124 146 25.9 30.4 14 5.0x 4.3x 4.1x 3.1x 1.2x 0.8x 5.8% 6.9% 0.04 15% 29% Juliana Ramli
Hexagon Hings Mar 235 74 1.77 1.90 7% H -22 7 3 0.2 15 17 23 14.6 19.5 31 12.1x 9.1x 5.1x 4.2x 2.6x 2.0x 0.0% 0.0% 0.95 6% 24% Chong Lee Len
Southern Steel Bhd Dec 866 271 2.14 3.00 40% B 20 28 35 0.2 181 146 156 33.5 35.9 -11 6.4x 6.0x 5.0x 4.5x 1.1x 0.3x 3.5% 3.5% 1.03 10% 27% Azida Nor-Azizi
Kinsteel Bhd Dec 1,048 328 1.16 1.70 47% B -11 -15 41 1.9 129 147 183 14.0 17.4 19 8.3x 6.7x 5.8x 4.9x 1.2x 0.6x 1.3% 1.3% 0.56 4% 17% Azida Nor-Azizi
Sector 2,880 901 456 455 529 6.3x 5.4x
Media
Astro Jan 6,653 2,082 3.44 3.00 -13% FV -1 6 -28 2.4 318 63 89 (0.7) 4.6 -47 nm 75.1x 9.7x 7.8x 4.1x 2.6x 1.7% 1.7% cash 5% 9% Ong Boon Leong
Sector 6,653 2,082 318 63 89 105.4x 75.1x
Motor
UMW Hings Dec 6,625 2,073 6.15 6.45 5% H -17 -9 11 1.0 423 501 552 49.1 54.1 14 12.5x 11.4x 6.4x 6.5x 2.1x 0.7x 4.1% 4.4% cash 8% 16% Chong Lee Len
Proton Mar 2,109 660 3.84 3.60 -6% FV 4 -29 -20 1.4 (591) 9 88 1.7 16.0 nm 232.4x 24.1x 1.9x 1.8x 0.4x 0.4x 0.0% 0.0% cash (7%) (11%) Chong Lee Len
APM Automotive Dec 423 133 2.10 2.40 14% B -9 3 -13 0.1 50 58 67 28.9 33.0 15 7.3x 6.4x 2.5x 2.1x 0.7x 0.5x 4.5% 4.5% cash 7% 9% Chong Lee Len
Tan Chong Motor Dec 1,082 339 1.61 1.95 21% H -25 22 34 1.1 106 130 155 19.3 23.0 21 8.4x 7.0x 6.1x 5.2x 0.8x 0.4x 4.5% 4.5% 0.13 5% 9% Chong Lee Len
MBM Resources Dec 654 205 2.70 4.20 56% B -14 -19 -10 0.0 119 115 103 47.7 42.5 -7 5.7x 6.4x 4.4x 4.8x 0.8x 0.6x 4.8% 4.8% 0.04 12% 17% Chong Lee Len
Sector^ 8,784 2,749 107 813 964 10.8x 9.1x
Oil & Gas
Petra Perdana Dec 1,101 345 3.70 4.60 24% B -27 -26 18 0.5 86 97 103 32.7 34.4 9 11.3x 10.7x 8.8x 7.9x 1.8x 1.3x 0.1% 0.1% 1.02 9% 32% June Ng
Wah Seong Dec 1,454 455 2.20 3.00 36% B -30 -28 10 1.1 86 104 107 16.3 16.7 -9 13.5x 13.2x 9.7x 10.0x 4.2x 0.6x 0.8% 0.8% 0.59 6% 20% June Ng
KNM Group Dec 5,451 1,706 5.20 7.60 46% B -30 10 82 4.8 188 391 662 37.8 50.8 67 13.8x 10.2x 11.0x 7.8x 5.9x 2.3x 0.6% 0.6% 0.29 17% 40% June Ng
Tanjung Offshore Dec 392 123 1.92 2.15 12% H -33 -36 -48 0.1 23 34 44 15.5 20.0 38 12.4x 9.6x 9.7x 7.5x 2.4x 1.3x 1.7% 1.9% 0.92 6% 19% June Ng
Alam Maritim Dec 898 281 1.85 3.20 73% B -16 5 37 0.3 51 71 92 14.4 18.9 35 12.8x 9.8x 10.3x 8.3x 3.2x 2.6x 0.6% 0.6% 1.41 8% 26% June Ng
Sector 9,296 2,909 434 697 1,008 13.3x 9.2x
Conglomerates
PPB Group Dec 11,262 3,525 9.50 13.50 42% B -10 7 53 1.1 531 729 782 61.5 66.0 21 15.4x 14.4x 10.1x 9.3x 0.9x 3.5x 3.6% 3.8% cash 72% 87% June Ng
Sime Darby Jun 55,588 17,398 9.25 12.40 34% B -19 -9 11 13.9 2,632 3,201 3,732 53.3 62.1 19 17.4x 14.9x 10.4x 9.0x 2.7x 1.8x 2.6% 3.2% 0.00 Ben Santoso Note 2
Sector 66,850 20,923 3,162 3,930 4,515 17.0x 14.8x
Construction
Gamuda Jul 6,251 1,956 3.12 4.50 44% B -35 -27 -22 10.6 185 343 476 17.3 24.0 59 18.0x 13.0x 21.6x 12.0x 2.0x 3.8x 14.7% 14.7% cash 4% 7% Wong Ming Tek
IJM Corp Mar 4,812 1,506 5.60 10.30 84% B -36 -31 -35 2.6 194 349 390 41.4 46.2 16 13.5x 12.1x 9.2x 8.3x 1.0x 1.1x 1.9% 1.9% 0.30 4% 8% Wong Ming Tek
Malaysian Resource Dec 1,261 395 1.39 2.25 62% B -43 -43 -33 9.3 41 92 111 10.2 12.3 65 13.6x 11.3x 9.1x 8.6x 1.6x 0.9x 1.8% 2.2% 0.39 2% 7% June Ng
Sunway Hings Jun 723 226 1.32 2.40 82% B -29 -12 99 1.6 (10) 102 136 13.8 18.4 nm 9.6x 7.2x 6.0x 5.5x 1.1x 0.6x 0.0% 0.0% 0.89 (0%) (2%) June Ng
TRC Synergy Dec 247 77 1.75 2.95 69% B -30 -5 12 0.4 28 41 49 33.5 39.4 31 5.2x 4.4x 3.2x 2.5x 0.9x 0.4x 4.8% 5.6% 0.12 9% 16% Azida Nor-Azizi
WCT Eng Dec 2,318 726 3.34 5.35 60% B -18 -13 18 1.0 136 217 244 31.2 35.2 34 10.7x 9.5x 5.8x 5.8x 2.6x 0.6x 1.7% 1.7% 0.39 5% 21% Wong Ming Tek
Sector 15,612 4,886 575 1,144 1,406 13.6x 11.1x
Concessionaires
PLUS Expressway Dec 15,500 4,851 3.10 3.95 27% B -4 -3 2 2.7 1,177 1,052 1,114 21.0 22.3 -3 14.7x 13.9x 10.2x 9.9x 2.8x 5.5x 5.1% 5.3% 1.42 9% 25% Wong Ming Tek
Litrak Mar 1,762 551 3.58 4.30 20% B -5 -5 21 0.3 89 100 111 20.5 22.8 12 17.5x 15.8x 10.0x 8.9x 1.9x 6.1x 2.0% 2.0% 0.91 5% 11% Wong Ming Tek
Sector 17,262 5,403 1,267 1,152 1,225 15.0x 14.1x
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