Small/Mid Cap Strategy and Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...

Regional Small/Mid Cap Strategy Q2 2008
Earnings Guide
H ONG K ONG 2nd LINERS : EARNINGS GUIDE
FYE Mkt Mkt Price Target Share Price Avg CAGR EV/ P/BV P/Sales Div Yld
Latest
Company Cap Cap (HK$) Price % Performance (%) 6-mth PAT/MI (HK$m) EPS (HK$) 07-09 PE (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) Report Data (%)
Disclosure
(HK$bn) (US$m) 25-Mar (HK$) Upside Rcmd 3M 6M 12M Vol (m) 07E 08F 09F 08F 09F (%) 08F 09F 08F 09F 08F 08F 08F 09F Gear ROA ROE Analyst Legend
E-Commerce
Tradelink * Dec 1 95 0.95 1.50 58 B (7) (10) (33) 1 76 91 103 0.12 0.13 17 8.1 7.2 3.0 5.6 2.3 3.1 10.2 11.7 cash 13% 22.9% Steven Liu
Sector 1 95 76 91 103 8.1 7.2
Hotel
HK & Shanghai Hotels * Dec 18 2256 12.14 14.84 22 B (7) (8) 2 1 901 946 1004 0.66 0.70 5 18.5 17.4 11.4 10.9 0.6 3.2 1.6 1.8 9% 4% 5.1% Jeff Yau
Sector 18 2256 901 946 1004 18.5 17.4
Industrial
AMVIG Dec 6 832 6.60 15.00 127 B (29) (37) 22 1 357 612 715 0.62 0.73 30 10.6 9.1 7.5 6.2 1.6 1.8 3.8 4.4 cash 13% 17.7% Patricia Yeung
Chen Hsong * Mar 2 286 3.55 7.80 120 B (20) (35) (25) 1 312 359 414 0.57 0.66 15 6.2 5.4 3.9 3.2 1.0 0.9 7.3 8.4 cash 11% 15.5% Patricia Yeung
Cosco International Dec 6 743 3.90 8.62 121 B (38) (40) 16 5 661 655 759 0.46 0.53 7 8.5 7.4 6.3 5.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 cash 19% 32.5% Gideon Lo
Huabao * Mar 18 2282 5.77 9.00 56 B (17) (10) 40 4 567 763 1015 0.25 0.33 29 23.1 17.4 19.9 14.2 10.8 13.0 1.3 1.7 cash 49% 63.4% Patricia Yeung
L.K. Technology Mar 1 136 1.04 1.15 11 H (1) 20 (11) 1 95 127 155 0.13 0.16 18 8.2 6.7 5.7 4.8 27.3 0.9 3.7 4.5 61% 11% 25.8% Patricia Yeung
Lee and Man Paper * FD Mar 14 1794 12.24 14.20 16 B (62) (61) (27) 4 1010 1482 1898 1.31 1.67 29 9.4 7.3 9.9 8.1 1.8 1.6 3.2 4.1 24% 16% 19.9% Patricia Yeung
Nine Dragons * Jun 30 3830 6.86 8.30 21 B (65) (72) (58) 12 2201 2585 3539 0.60 0.82 25 11.4 8.3 11.6 8.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.4 42% 11% 21.0% Patricia Yeung
Peace Mark * Mar 6 825 6.14 13.87 126 H (44) (40) (15) 3 283 379 503 0.41 0.54 38 15.0 11.4 10.8 8.0 3.0 1.7 2.8 3.7 7% 8% 16.1% Mavis Hui
Shenzhou Intl Dec 3 334 2.08 4.45 114 H (40) (43) (35) 0 484 554 670 0.44 0.54 18 4.7 3.9 4.0 3.2 1.0 0.7 10.0 12.1 2% 15% 20.7% Patricia Yeung
Symphony FD Dec 1 142 0.63 1.14 81 H (27) (31) (46) 2 154 162 191 0.10 0.11 11 6.5 5.5 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.5 6.2 7.3 cash 11% 14.4% Patricia Yeung
Top Form Jun 1 80 0.58 0.90 55 S (35) (47) (54) 2 117 131 135 0.12 0.13 7 4.8 4.6 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 10.5 10.8 cash 17% 26.4% Patricia Yeung
Victory City * Mar 1 177 2.06 3.50 70 B (12) (12) (34) 1 306 336 388 0.51 0.59 12 4.1 3.5 5.0 4.3 0.6 0.3 7.4 8.5 86% 7% 17.6% Patricia Yeung
Sector 82 10630 6190 7533 9666 9.9 9.8
Infrastructure, Environmental
China Everbright Intl * Dec 8 1063 2.63 4.27 62 B (27) (12) 33 14 338 555 513 0.18 0.16 5 14.9 16.1 12.6 12.7 2.8 4.3 1.0 1.0 40% 9% 15.2% Patricia Yeung
Sector 8 1063 338 555 513 14.9 16.1
Internet
Tencent Dec 77 9864 42.65 31.60 (26) H (22) (12) 75 4 1724 2280 3219 1.26 1.81 37 33.9 23.6 26.2 n.a. 11.4 15.9 1.0 n.a. cash 26% 31.8% Steven Liu
Sector 77 9864 1724 2280 3219 33.9 23.6
Leisure
Star Cruises @ Dec 11 1426 0.19 0.57 199 B (41) (51) (30) 1 (127) (70) 27 (0.01) 0.00 n.a. n.a. 48.3 11.3 9.2 1.1 0.5 n.a. n.a. 153% nm nmo / Lee Len Chong
Sector 11 1426 (127) (70) 27 n.a. 48.3
Machinery
China Infra Machinery Dec 8 1053 7.50 17.65 135 B (49) (66) (55) 4 730 903 1166 0.83 1.07 26 9.0 7.0 6.5 5.1 2.2 1.2 3.3 3.3 4% 25% 42.6% HK Research
Sector 8 1053 730 903 1166 9.0 7.0
Media
Next Media FD Mar 7 948 3.05 3.66 20 B 0 31 6 2 358 400 435 0.17 0.17 6 18.4 18.4 10.5 9.4 1.8 7.5 4.6 4.6 cash 8% 13.0% Mavis Hui
QJY Media * Sep 1 108 4.60 6.50 41 B 11 (1) 119 3 139 196 275 0.32 0.44 30 14.3 10.3 11.4 8.1 2.3 2.1 1.4 1.9 cash 16% 16.2% Mavis Hui
SCMP Group Dec 4 551 2.74 3.04 11 H 1 5 (2) 4 294 333 371 0.21 0.24 12 12.8 11.5 8.8 8.0 2.3 3.3 6.6 7.4 cash 13% 16.4% Mavis Hui
TVB * Dec 19 2416 42.80 51.91 21 B (10) (10) (14) 1 1277 749 931 3.17 3.58 11 13.5 12.0 8.3 7.5 3.2 4.1 4.6 5.2 cash 21% 24.0% Mavis Hui
Sector 12 1607 2069 1677 2012 13.2 13.3
Oil and Gas
Sinopec Shanghai Petro Dec 6 802 2.67 5.25 97 H (41) (56) (31) 28 1235 1552 2231 0.22 0.31 34 12.4 8.6 6.3 4.7 0.9 0.3 2.9 4.2 23% 3% 4.4% Gideon Lo
Sector 6 802 1235 1552 2231 12.4 8.6
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
China Pharmaceutical Dec 3 432 2.18 2.80 28 FV (19) (51) 66 5 495 304 293 0.20 0.19 (23) 11.0 11.4 4.9 4.6 1.0 0.7 1.8 1.7 36% 9% 17.4% Gideon Lo
Guangzhou Pharm Dec 1 153 5.40 7.10 31 B (21) (39) (8) 1 285 393 474 0.48 0.58 29 11.1 9.2 6.7 5.9 1.2 0.3 2.9 3.5 13% 4% 7.8% Gideon Lo
Hua Han Bio-Pharma * Jun 1 150 1.32 2.15 63 B (35) (44) (45) 0 131 144 189 0.16 0.21 20 8.1 6.2 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.9 3.2 cash 9% 13.5% Gideon Lo
Mingyuan Medicare Dec 3 418 1.12 1.65 47 B 5 (9) 50 9 116 163 224 0.06 0.07 34 20.2 14.9 14.2 10.4 4.1 8.7 1.7 2.3 cash 9% 13.9% Gideon Lo
Sino Biopharmaceutical * Dec 3 428 1.47 2.73 86 B 2 (10) 17 1 224 294 377 0.13 0.17 30 11.3 8.8 5.0 4.0 1.6 2.1 5.3 6.8 cash 9% 10.6% Gideon Lo
Tong Ren Tong Tech * FD Dec 1 116 10.30 10.10 (2) FV (23) (41) (25) 0 169 188 205 0.99 1.08 10 10.4 9.5 6.2 5.5 1.3 1.3 4.8 5.2 cash 9% 12.4% Gideon Lo
Sector 13 1698 1420 1486 1763 12.1 10.3
Properties-China
China Resources Land Dec 47 6103 11.74 9.86 (16) H (26) (21) 38 17 1007 1742 2859 0.56 0.90 67 21.0 13.0 28.7 n.a. 1.1 8.6 1.2 2.1 29% 9% 17.7% HK Research
Coastal Greenland Ltd FD* Mar 3 432 1.20 2.39 99 B (26) (45) (5) 4 230 459 n.a. 0.21 n.a. n.a. 5.8 n.a. 7.4 n.a. 0.6 0.7 4.3 n.a. 122% 5% 7.3% HK Research
Guangzhou Investment Dec 11 1405 1.53 2.92 91 B (32) (34) (15) 43 1154 1656 1656 0.23 n.a. n.a. 6.6 n.a. 4.8 n.a. 0.4 0.9 4.6 n.a. 32% 2% 6.4% HK Research
HKC Holdings Dec 12 1609 1.54 3.00 95 B (31) (41) 9 28 669 66 409 0.01 0.05 (37) 191.0 30.9 327.5 14.2 0.6 28.8 3.9 3.9 25% 8% 14.8% Jeff Yau
R&F Properties Dec 18 2382 18.20 31.00 70 B (28) (46) 17 21 3194 4550 2064 1.41 0.85 (7) 12.9 21.3 10.1 n.a. 0.9 2.9 2.3 10.7 Cash 23% 35.1% HK Research
Road King Dec 6 775 7.99 17.50 119 B (34) (48) (34) 1 1140 1360 444 1.85 0.60 (38) 4.3 13.2 6.1 8.1 0.4 1.0 9.3 n.a. 30% 9% 11.7% HK Research Note 2
Shimao Property Dec 38 4838 11.38 26.00 128 B (31) (42) (8) 14 3031 4200 5761 1.27 2.00 47 8.9 5.7 8.1 5.3 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.3 18% 11% 19.8% Carol Wu
SPG Land Dec 3 401 3.00 8.92 197 B (53) (48) (35) 1 453 598 937 0.54 0.84 44 5.6 3.6 7.1 3.9 0.3 1.2 0.7 1.1 9% 8% 27.5% Ken Chen Note 2
Sector 139 17944 10879 14631 14129 12.0 11.0
Properties-HK
Far East Consortium * Mar 4 527 2.54 4.65 83 B (35) (19) (13) 5 539 591 659 0.37 0.41 5 6.9 6.2 8.1 3.5 0.4 2.2 5.5 5.9 77% 7% 10.0% Jeff Yau
Great Eagle Dec 13 1683 21.60 36.00 67 B (23) (26) (19) 2 1198 819 1345 1.36 1.85 (3) 15.9 11.7 11.7 n.a. 0.4 3.5 3.7 n.a. 35% 1% 1.8% Jeff Yau
Hongkong Land ^ @ Dec 72 9250 4.03 n.a. n.a. B (17) (8) (9) 6 345 452 670 0.20 0.29 39 20.5 13.8 21.8 n.a. 0.7 8.4 3.7 4.5 26% 2% 3.0% Jeff Yau
Hysan Development * Dec 23 2975 22.25 24.05 8 B (1) 1 3 4 1158 984 1067 0.95 1.03 (3) 23.5 21.6 22.2 n.a. 0.6 15.3 2.7 2.9 10% 3% 4.0% Jeff Yau
Kerry Properties * Dec 64 8245 44.90 55.40 23 B (26) (22) 16 3 2589 3346 3396 2.35 2.38 11 19.1 18.8 16.0 15.7 0.7 5.1 2.6 2.6 27% 8% 7.7% Jeff Yau
Hang Lung Group *^ Jun 47 6009 34.95 44.30 27 B (10) (17) 31 2 4786 3657 4302 2.74 3.23 (5) 12.7 10.8 8.1 4.4 1.1 3.3 1.9 2.1 28% 5% 11.8% Jeff Yau
Tai Cheung * Mar 3 323 4.06 6.18 52 B (40) (33) (14) 1 272 283 597 0.46 0.97 48 8.9 4.2 14.8 4.2 0.3 7.7 5.2 7.4 7% 6% 6.8% Jeff Yau
Sector 225 29013 10886 10133 12035 16.4 16.1
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