Small/Mid Cap Strategy and Stock Picks - the DBS Vickers ...

Regional Small/Mid Cap Strategy Q2 2008
Earnings Guide
HONG KONG BLUE CHIPS : EARNINGS GUIDE
FYE Mkt Mkt Price Target Share Price Avg CAGR EV/ P/BV P/Sales Div Yld
Latest
Company Cap Cap (HK$) Price % Performance (%) 6-mth PAT/MI (HK$m) EPS (HK$) 07-09 PE (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) Rpt Data (%)
Disclosure
(HK$bn) (US$bn) 25-Mar (HK$) Upside Rcmd 3M 6M 12M Vol (m) 07E 08F 09F 08F 09F (%) 08F 09F 08F 09F 08F 08F 08F 09F Gear ROA ROE Analyst Legend
Banking
Bank of Communications * Dec 203 26 8.79 9.30 6 H -17 -4 14 114 21,235 29,678 32,184 0.62 0.67 23.11 14.2 13.1 n.a. n.a. 2.4 n.a. 2.6 2.8 n.a. 1% 18% Jasmine Lai
Bank of China * Dec 246 32 3.24 4.00 23 B -10 -19 -12 547 58,914 81,852 75,793 0.32 0.37 26.20 10.0 8.8 n.a. n.a. 1.5 n.a. 3.4 3.9 n.a. 1% 14% Jasmine Lai
Bank of China HK Dec 195 25 18.44 18.32 -1 H -13 -5 -1 32 12,239 13,141 15,671 1.24 1.48 13.16 14.8 12.4 n.a. n.a. 2.1 n.a. 4.5 5.1 n.a. 2% 17% Jasmine Lai
Bank of East Asia * Dec 64 8 38.45 40.50 5 H -27 -12 -14 9 4,144 3,961 4,273 2.48 2.64 0.14 15.5 14.6 n.a. n.a. 1.8 n.a. 3.2 3.3 n.a. 1% 13% Jasmine Lai
China Construction Bank Dec 1,254 162 5.58 7.50 34 B -11 -18 32 398 73,466 98,877 106,601 0.42 0.49 22.44 13.2 11.5 n.a. n.a. 2.6 n.a. 3.0 3.5 n.a. 1% 15% Jasmine Lai
China Life * Dec 204 26 27.45 n.a. n.a. NR -33 -40 20 124 15,430 19,496 24,727 1.42 1.45 -2.61 19.3 18.9 n.a. n.a. 12.7 n.a. 1.7 1.2 n.a. 2% 23% HK Research
Hang Seng Bank * Dec 269 35 140.90 134.80 -4 S -10 3 31 4 18,242 16,189 17,444 8.47 9.12 -2.21 16.6 15.4 n.a. n.a. 4.7 n.a. 5.0 5.2 n.a. 3% 35% Jasmine Lai
HSBC Holdings * Dec 1,507 194 127.00 110.00 -13 H -2 -10 -6 31 149,237 127,613 130,507 10.89 10.10 -11.41 11.7 12.6 n.a. n.a. 1.4 n.a. 5.6 5.6 n.a. 1% 16% Jasmine Lai
HK Exchanges & Clearing * Dec 136 18 127.30 110.00 -14 S -41 -45 71 13 6,169 5,387 5,421 4.98 5.01 -6.45 25.6 25.4 n.a. n.a. 11.4 n.a. 4.0 4.0 n.a. 10% 90% Jasmine Lai
ICBC * Dec 432 56 5.20 6.15 18 B -1 1 27 485 85,384 121,533 141,918 0.36 0.42 28.92 14.3 12.2 n.a. n.a. 2.5 n.a. 3.8 4.5 n.a. 1% 16% Jasmine Lai
Ping An Ins * Dec 137 18 53.35 n.a. n.a. NR -36 -51 41 19 18,688 17,225 19,638 2.51 2.73 2.24 21.2 19.6 n.a. n.a. 3.0 n.a. 0.9 1.2 n.a. 2% 24% HK Research
Sector 4,444 573 463,147 534,949 574,178 13.7 13.3
Power, Infra & Utilities
CK Infrastructure * Dec 77 10 33.95 n.a. n.a. NR 13 11 21 2 4,772 5,045 4,448 2.24 1.98 -3.43 15.2 17.2 n.a. n.a. 1.9 -8.6 3.5 3.6 26% 8% 13% HK Research
CLP Holdings * Dec 154 20 64.15 n.a. n.a. NR 20 19 14 6 10,608 10,310 8,587 4.28 3.59 -9.67 15.0 17.9 12.5 13.9 2.3 2.9 4.0 4.1 76% 8% 18% HK Research
China Shenhua Energy * Dec 105 14 30.95 44.00 42 B -32 -33 64 37 22,716 30,489 36,577 1.54 1.85 22.51 20.2 16.8 10.3 8.4 3.7 1.0 1.7 2.1 cash 10% 21% Helen Wang
CNOOC * Dec 478 62 10.70 15.64 46 B -11 -12 73 162 34,384 44,136 54,637 0.99 1.22 24.28 10.8 8.8 6.4 6.0 2.7 3.6 3.1 3.8 cash 23% 34% Gideon Lo
HK & China Gas * Dec 134 12 22.10 20.20 -9 B -2 25 42 13 9,270 4,644 4,768 0.78 0.78 -28.83 28.3 28.5 13.4 12.5 4.6 9.3 1.7 1.8 22% 31% 37% HK Research
HK Electric * Dec 105 14 49.35 n.a. n.a. NR 12 22 25 4 7,448 7,538 5,754 3.53 2.70 -12.11 14.0 18.3 10.4 13.1 2.1 9.2 4.1 3.9 3% 11% 16% HK Research
MTR Dec 150 19 26.80 n.a. n.a. NR -8 12 33 17 15,180 7,246 8,304 1.27 1.46 -26.71 21.1 18.3 16.9 15.6 1.6 8.8 1.7 1.8 36% 6% 11% HK Research
PetroChina * Dec 207 27 9.82 12.42 26 B -28 -34 9 330 160,188 167,244 181,722 0.92 0.99 5.54 10.7 9.9 5.9 5.3 2.0 0.2 4.2 4.5 4% 17% 24% Gideon Lo
Sinopec Dec 113 15 6.71 9.37 40 B -43 -31 2 241 67,458 62,150 70,179 0.72 0.81 2.00 9.4 8.3 5.5 3.1 1.5 0.1 2.7 3.0 44% 9% 22% Gideon Lo Note 2
Sector 1,204 150 332,024 338,801 374,977 12.9 11.9
Properties
Cheung Kong * Dec 253 33 109.20 131.20 20 B -10 -19 48 9 27,678 11,503 17,755 4.97 7.67 -19.91 22.0 14.2 26.4 13.4 0.7 12.0 2.2 2.4 12% 10% 13% Jeff Yau
China Overseas Dec 98 13 12.68 9.64 -24 B -19 -13 16 9 3,013 5,124 7,468 0.74 0.99 31.84 17.1 12.8 12.9 9.3 1.3 5.1 1.8 2.0 4% 8% 18% HK Research
Hang Lung Properties *^ Jun 108 14 26.05 34.00 31 B -18 -21 22 11 6,371 7,199 8,368 1.74 2.02 12.55 15.0 12.9 12.2 10.4 0.8 7.8 2.3 2.5 9% 8% 11% Jeff Yau
Henderson Land *^ Jun 116 15 54.00 66.50 23 B -24 -10 22 8 5,883 6,689 5,954 3.27 2.77 -5.47 16.5 19.5 27.5 37.3 0.7 8.1 2.1 2.1 9% 5% 7% Jeff Yau
New World Dev * Jun 70 9 18.78 22.40 19 B -31 -14 5 8 4,313 7,343 4,974 1.98 1.34 6.86 9.5 14.0 19.8 17.3 0.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 21% 3% 8% Jeff Yau
SHK Properties * ^ Jun 298 38 116.20 165.20 42 B -25 -8 34 13 11,495 11,937 14,274 4.70 5.57 9.84 24.7 20.9 27.6 18.0 0.8 11.0 2.2 2.4 15% 4% 6% Jeff Yau
Sino Land * Jun 84 11 17.34 21.70 25 B -36 -11 4 17 3,904 3,178 6,039 0.67 1.24 19.56 26.0 13.9 30.1 13.4 0.7 11.1 2.5 2.7 40% 8% 13% Jeff Yau
Sector 1,027 132 62,657 52,973 64,833 18.6 17.8
Hongs/Conglomerates
Hutchison Dec 307 40 72.10 n.a. n.a. NR -14 -11 -1 12 43,162 10,752 16,504 2.07 3.92 -26.10 34.8 18.4 7.8 4.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 2.4 55% 3% 8% HK Research
China Merchants Hldgs Dec 84 11 35.00 n.a. n.a. NR -26 -27 12 7 3,124 3,901 4,497 1.61 1.87 13.33 21.7 18.7 32.2 30.2 3.3 11.1 2.2 2.5 34% 8% 14% HK Research
Swire Pacific * ^ Dec 80 10 86.85 98.30 13 H -15 -8 0 5 10,283 9,335 9,695 6.16 6.39 -2.74 14.1 13.6 18.8 18.2 0.7 3.2 3.8 3.9 10% 6% 8% Jeff Yau
Wharf Holdings * Dec 104 13 37.75 43.50 15 B -6 1 37 7 5,947 5,287 5,488 1.92 1.99 -9.44 19.7 18.9 13.6 13.1 0.7 5.8 2.1 2.1 33% 7% 7% Jeff Yau
Sector 704 91 71,376 37,017 44,717 21.0 16.6
Comm/Ind
Cathay Pacific Dec 61 8 15.44 n.a. n.a. NR -25 -29 -24 9 7,023 5,888 5,593 1.62 1.42 -10.79 9.5 10.9 n.a. n.a. 1.2 -5.3 4.7 4.5 46% 6% 15% HK Research
COSCO Pacific Dec 31 4 13.64 n.a. n.a. NR -29 -41 -23 7 2,962 2,740 3,210 1.43 1.43 3.48 9.5 9.5 11.1 10.5 1.6 12.7 4.7 4.7 16% 10% 15% HK Research Note 2
Esprit Holdings * Jun 115 15 92.55 134.00 45 B -19 -24 5 5 5,180 6,592 8,071 5.35 6.55 24.52 17.3 14.1 12.4 10.1 7.8 3.1 4.4 5.4 Cash 30% 49% Alice Hui
Foxconn Int'l Dec 80 10 11.32 n.a. n.a. NR -37 -50 -54 12 5,980 7,198 8,648 1.03 1.24 20.78 11.0 9.2 n.a. n.a. 2.5 0.7 cash 19% 37% HK Research
Li & Fung * Dec 102 13 29.60 39.20 32 B -7 -10 19 11 3,060 3,672 4,990 1.06 1.45 27.10 27.8 20.5 23.5 17.0 9.6 0.9 2.9 3.9 43% 11% 34% Patricia Yeung
Yue Yuen * Sep 41 5 24.90 27.50 10 B -10 8 -7 4 2,803 3,083 3,593 1.85 2.16 13.12 13.4 11.5 9.0 8.0 1.9 1.1 3.3 3.9 23% 16% 16% Patricia Yeung
Sector 430 55 27,008 29,173 34,106 15.2 15.3
Telecom
China Mobile * Dec 2,254 291 112.50 162.00 44 B -13 -8 68 37 88,094 122,908 152,346 6.11 7.55 30.95 18.4 14.9 8.3 6.7 4.7 4.9 2.7 3.3 cash 16% 24% Steven Liu
China Netcom * Dec 146 19 21.80 28.00 28 B -2 8 17 17 13,005 13,656 15,406 2.04 2.30 8.48 10.7 9.5 4.5 4.2 1.5 1.6 3.3 3.7 91% 26% 19% Steven Liu
China Unicom * Dec 235 30 17.24 15.90 -8 H -4 7 59 24 7,851 9,966 12,250 0.73 0.90 21.82 23.6 19.2 5.5 4.6 2.3 2.0 1.2 1.6 4% 4% 8% Steven Liu
PCCW Dec 33 4 4.92 n.a. n.a. NR 9 -3 5 16 1,503 2,106 2,185 0.31 0.32 19.68 15.7 15.5 7.3 7.5 16.4 -0.7 4.5 4.4 n.a. 3% n.a. HK Research
Sector 2,668 344 110,453 148,636 182,187 17.96 14.76
Earnings calculations include exceptionals and provisions Sector P/Es are calendarised % denominated in SGD Note 2: DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA, within the past 12 months, have received
^ underlying profit * 07 A @ denominated in USD compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services
P /NAV for Property companies
FD - fully diluted EPS
Page 65