Nuclear Proliferation TechnologyTrends Analysis - International ...

Nuclear Proliferation TechnologyTrends Analysis - International ... Nuclear Proliferation TechnologyTrends Analysis - International ...

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PNNL-14480 Table 5 Technologies and components used in centrifuge enrichment facilities ............. 17 Table 6 Technology and technical issues involved with centrifuge enrichment .............. 19 Table 7 Countries interested in Centrifuge technology ................................................... 20 Table 8 Successful indigenous centrifuge enrichment programs ..................................... 20 Table 9 Technologies and components used in EMIS facilities....................................... 37 Table 10 Technology and technical issues involved with EMIS...................................... 38 Table 11 Countries with EMIS technology ...................................................................... 39 Table 12 Technologies and components used in chemical and isotope exchange enrichment facilities.................................................................................................. 44 Table 13 Technology and Technical Issues involved with chemical and isotope exchange enrichment facilities.................................................................................................. 45 Table 14 Chemical isotope enrichment programs ........................................................... 45 Table 15 Technologies and components used in aerodynamic isotope-separation facilities, ................................................................................................................................... 51 Table 16 Technology and Technical Issues involved with aerodynamic isotope separation .................................................................................................................. 53 Table 17 Aerodynamic Isotope Separation Program........................................................ 55 Table 18 Technology Acquisition/Development.............................................................. 58 Table 19 Countries with graphite-moderated production reactors ................................... 63 Table 20 Countries with Graphite moderated reactors and number put into operation.... 67 Table 21 Construction Time for Graphite Moderated Reactors ....................................... 69 Table 22 Construction Time Constants for Graphite-Moderated Reactors for Different Regimes..................................................................................................................... 70 Table 23 Countries with heavy water moderated production reactors ............................. 72 Table 24 Countries with Heavy Water Moderated Reactors ........................................... 75 Table 25 Construction Times for Heavy Water Reactors................................................. 76 Table 26 Construction Time Constants for Heavy Water Moderated Reactors for Different Regimes..................................................................................................... 77 Table 27 Countries believed to have used or planned to use research reactors to produce plutonium .................................................................................................................. 78 Table 28 Technologies used in reprocessing facilities ..................................................... 90 Table 29 Technical issues with reprocessing operations .................................................. 91 Table 30 Countries with reprocessing facilities................................................................ 92 Table 31 Program summary............................................................................................ 102 iii

PNNL-14480 1.0 INTRODUCTION One approach to providing a basis for predicting and evaluating future proliferation events is to understand past proliferation events, that is, the different paths that have actually been taken to acquire or attempt to acquire special nuclear material. In order to provide this information this report, describing previous material acquisition activities (obtained from open source material) has been prepared. This report describes how, based on an evaluation of historical trends in nuclear technology development, conclusions can be reached concerning: 1. The length of time it takes to acquire a technology 2. The length of time it takes for production of special nuclear material to begin 3. The type of approaches taken for acquiring the technology. In addition to examining time constants, the report is intended to provide information that could be used to support the use of the different non-proliferation analysis methodologies. Accordingly, each section includes: • Technology description - Technology origin - Basic theory - Important components/materials • Technology development - Technological difficulties involved in use - Changes/improvements in technology • Countries that have used/attempted to use the technology • Technology Information - Acquisition approaches - Time constants for technology development • Required Concurrent Technologies 2.0 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ANALYSIS APPROACH In this study, past approaches taken towards acquiring special nuclear material have been categorized as “enrichment technology based” (primarily oriented to acquisition of highly enriched uranium) and “reactor technology based” (primarily oriented towards the acquisition of plutonium). Many different technologies have been investigated and proposed for developing these materials. The technologies to be evaluated in this report are those that have received significant funding and development and have actually produced special nuclear material. These approaches are: 1. Enrichment technology • Gaseous Diffusion • Gaseous Centrifuge 1

PNNL-14480<br />

Table 5 Technologies and components used in centrifuge enrichment facilities ............. 17<br />

Table 6 Technology and technical issues involved with centrifuge enrichment .............. 19<br />

Table 7 Countries interested in Centrifuge technology ................................................... 20<br />

Table 8 Successful indigenous centrifuge enrichment programs ..................................... 20<br />

Table 9 Technologies and components used in EMIS facilities....................................... 37<br />

Table 10 Technology and technical issues involved with EMIS...................................... 38<br />

Table 11 Countries with EMIS technology ...................................................................... 39<br />

Table 12 Technologies and components used in chemical and isotope exchange<br />

enrichment facilities.................................................................................................. 44<br />

Table 13 Technology and Technical Issues involved with chemical and isotope exchange<br />

enrichment facilities.................................................................................................. 45<br />

Table 14 Chemical isotope enrichment programs ........................................................... 45<br />

Table 15 Technologies and components used in aerodynamic isotope-separation facilities,<br />

................................................................................................................................... 51<br />

Table 16 Technology and Technical Issues involved with aerodynamic isotope<br />

separation .................................................................................................................. 53<br />

Table 17 Aerodynamic Isotope Separation Program........................................................ 55<br />

Table 18 Technology Acquisition/Development.............................................................. 58<br />

Table 19 Countries with graphite-moderated production reactors ................................... 63<br />

Table 20 Countries with Graphite moderated reactors and number put into operation.... 67<br />

Table 21 Construction Time for Graphite Moderated Reactors ....................................... 69<br />

Table 22 Construction Time Constants for Graphite-Moderated Reactors for Different<br />

Regimes..................................................................................................................... 70<br />

Table 23 Countries with heavy water moderated production reactors ............................. 72<br />

Table 24 Countries with Heavy Water Moderated Reactors ........................................... 75<br />

Table 25 Construction Times for Heavy Water Reactors................................................. 76<br />

Table 26 Construction Time Constants for Heavy Water Moderated Reactors for<br />

Different Regimes..................................................................................................... 77<br />

Table 27 Countries believed to have used or planned to use research reactors to produce<br />

plutonium .................................................................................................................. 78<br />

Table 28 Technologies used in reprocessing facilities ..................................................... 90<br />

Table 29 Technical issues with reprocessing operations .................................................. 91<br />

Table 30 Countries with reprocessing facilities................................................................ 92<br />

Table 31 Program summary............................................................................................ 102<br />

iii

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