Nuclear Proliferation TechnologyTrends Analysis - International ...

PNNL -14480
Australia 6 Lybia 3
Brazil 1,2 Pakistan 3
China 2 North Korea 6
France 6 South Africa 5
Germany 1,4 Soviet Union 1
India 1 Syria 3,6
Iran 3 The Netherlands 1,4
Iraq 3 United Kingdom 1,4
Japan 1 United States 5,6
1 Successful indigenous development
2 Purchase technology
3 Covert acquisition
4 Unrenco Participant
5 Development halted
6 Recent or past interest
Table 7 Countries interested in Centrifuge technology
Table 8 shows the estimated timeframes for the various successful indigenous centrifuge
enrichment programs. It should be noted that the dates are approximate, because reports
from which the information was extracted were not always consistent. However, these
dates are “best estimates” and are accurate within a year or two.
Country
3.2.3.1 Soviet Union
Program
Initiation
First
Demonstration
Facility*
Operational
Time to First
Demonstration
Facility (yrs)
First Full
Scale**
Facility
Time to
first full
scale
facility
Soviet
Union
1945 1953 8 1957 12
Urenco 1960 1971 11 1973 13
Japan 1971 1979 8 1982 10
Pakistan 1974 1980 6 1984 10
Brazil 1980 1990 10 2002 22
India 1975 1985 10 1992 17
Iran 1987 2004 () 17
*Linked cascades of 100 or more centrifuges producing enriched uranium
**Facility producing 5,000 or more swu/yr
Table 8 Successful indigenous centrifuge enrichment programs
The first successful centrifuge enrichment program was created in the Soviet Union. The
program was initiated in 1945, and a successful pilot plant was in operation by 1953.
Although the Soviets had plans and prototypes for super-critical centrifuges, the decision
was made to use sub-critical centrifuge technology at the beginning of the program, and
this remains the primary technology choice today.
The original purpose of the Soviet program was to develop the capability to produce
highly enriched uranium for their weapons program, because their gaseous diffusion
plants did not function well.
20