M-4 Vol. XXX, No. 21 May 24, 2007 FUTURES MARKET WATCH ...
M-4 Vol. XXX, No. 21 May 24, 2007 FUTURES MARKET WATCH ...
M-4 Vol. XXX, No. 21 May 24, 2007 FUTURES MARKET WATCH ...
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M-4 <strong>Vol</strong>. <strong>XXX</strong>, <strong>No</strong>. <strong>21</strong> <strong>May</strong> <strong>24</strong>, <strong>2007</strong><br />
<strong>FUTURES</strong> <strong>MARKET</strong> <strong>WATCH</strong><br />
Month Commodity 5/18 5/<strong>21</strong> 5/22 5/23 5/<strong>24</strong><br />
July<br />
September<br />
Corn<br />
Corn<br />
3.71<br />
3.69<br />
3.68<br />
3.72<br />
3.69<br />
3.71<br />
3.68<br />
3.71<br />
3.76<br />
3.76<br />
July<br />
<strong>No</strong>vember<br />
Soybeans<br />
Soybeans<br />
7.92<br />
8.<strong>21</strong><br />
7.94<br />
8.<strong>21</strong><br />
7.93<br />
8.22<br />
8.00<br />
8.30<br />
8.05<br />
8.34<br />
July<br />
December<br />
Wheat<br />
Wheat<br />
4.71<br />
4.94<br />
4.72<br />
4.97<br />
4.71<br />
4.96<br />
4.76<br />
5.02<br />
4.91<br />
5.14<br />
July Soybean Meal <strong>21</strong>2.00 <strong>21</strong>5.00 <strong>21</strong>4.80 <strong>21</strong>8.90 <strong>21</strong>7.20<br />
July<br />
December<br />
Cotton<br />
Cotton<br />
49.76<br />
54.35<br />
50.54<br />
56.40<br />
50.32<br />
55.40<br />
49.14<br />
54.43<br />
50.09<br />
55.15<br />
<strong>May</strong><br />
October<br />
Feeder Cattle<br />
Feeder Cattle<br />
109.12<br />
112.55<br />
108.92<br />
112.54<br />
108.65<br />
112.27<br />
108.32<br />
111.40<br />
108.07<br />
110.45<br />
June<br />
October<br />
Live Cattle<br />
Live Cattle<br />
92.65<br />
96.40<br />
93.60<br />
96.99<br />
92.50<br />
96.27<br />
91.85<br />
96.07<br />
91.10<br />
95.47<br />
June<br />
July<br />
Lean Hogs<br />
Lean Hogs<br />
75.40<br />
74.67<br />
75.32<br />
74.32<br />
74.65<br />
73.50<br />
74.62<br />
73.50<br />
OPTIONS <strong>MARKET</strong> <strong>WATCH</strong> (5/<strong>24</strong>/07)<br />
Commodity Strike Put Premiums Call Premiums<br />
Cotton .54/lb. Jly<br />
4.92<br />
Wheat 4.70/bu. Jly<br />
.072<br />
Soybeans 8.00/bu. Jly<br />
.175<br />
Corn 3.70/bu. Jly<br />
.120<br />
Hogs 74.00/cwt. Jun<br />
8.50<br />
Fed Cattle 92.00/cwt Jun<br />
1.43<br />
Feeder Cattle 110.00/cwt. <strong>May</strong><br />
1.93<br />
Oct<br />
3.<strong>24</strong><br />
Sep<br />
.153<br />
Aug<br />
.276<br />
Sep<br />
.252<br />
Jly<br />
2.20<br />
Aug<br />
2.98<br />
Aug<br />
2.70<br />
Dec<br />
2.68<br />
Dec<br />
.207<br />
<strong>No</strong>v<br />
.354<br />
Dec<br />
.331<br />
Aug<br />
2.98<br />
Oct<br />
2.75<br />
Sep<br />
3.30<br />
Jly<br />
0.15<br />
Jly<br />
.285<br />
Jly<br />
.227<br />
Jly<br />
.184<br />
Jun<br />
1.80<br />
Jun<br />
5.25<br />
<strong>May</strong><br />
0.25<br />
Oct<br />
1.91<br />
Sep<br />
.393<br />
Aug<br />
.402<br />
Sep<br />
.313<br />
Jly<br />
2.13<br />
Aug<br />
2.20<br />
Aug<br />
----<br />
74.95<br />
73.92<br />
Dec<br />
2.40<br />
Dec<br />
.556<br />
<strong>No</strong>v<br />
.686<br />
Dec<br />
.357<br />
Aug<br />
2.40<br />
Oct<br />
5.50<br />
Sep<br />
4.78<br />
FUTURE <strong>MARKET</strong> TREND ANALYSIS* Corn -Down; Soybeans -Up; Cattle - Up; Hogs - Down<br />
*The trend analysis is based on moving averages. For detailed information on the moving trends and their use contact the<br />
Extension Ag. Economics Department.<br />
This report is available at http://www.ces.uga.edu/Agriculture/agecon/newsltr.html
LIVESTOCK & GRAIN STATISTICS<br />
Grain Exports<br />
(1000Bu.) This Week Last Week<br />
Year<br />
Ago<br />
Total to Date<br />
For Mktg.<br />
Year<br />
Total to Date<br />
Last Year<br />
% This Year<br />
Of Last<br />
Week Ending 5/17/07<br />
Corn 22,653 40,887 53,106 1,486,346 1,378,931 108%<br />
Soybeans 11,<strong>21</strong>1 8,609 6,367 961,003 776,551 1<strong>24</strong>%<br />
Wheat 22,190 23,660 15,638 857,517 941,519 91%<br />
Week Ending 5/19/07<br />
Cattle 702 669 702 12,608 12,299 103%<br />
Hogs 1952 1934 1958 40,273 39,565 102%<br />
PROFIT SCOREBOARD<br />
ENTERPRISE, YIELD<br />
AND <strong>MARKET</strong>ING<br />
SYSTEM<br />
THURSDAY'S<br />
CLOSING<br />
<strong>FUTURES</strong> PRICE<br />
LESS<br />
ESTIMATED<br />
BASIS EQUALS<br />
FORWARD<br />
PRICING<br />
OPPORTUNITY<br />
ON THURSDAY<br />
OUT OF POCKET<br />
AND TOTAL<br />
PRODUCTION<br />
COSTS<br />
POTENTIAL<br />
(RETURNS TO<br />
ND & MGT.)<br />
CHANCE OF<br />
POSITIVE<br />
RETURN TO<br />
LAND AND<br />
MGT. *<br />
Wheat<br />
40 .bu./acre<br />
July 4.91 -.25 4.66/ bu. 2.33/bu.<br />
3.56/bu.<br />
.0/bu.<br />
1.10/bu<br />
98%<br />
83%<br />
Corn - Irrigated<br />
150 bu./acre<br />
Dec. 3.73 .05 3.78/bu. 1.87/bu.<br />
2.80/bu.<br />
1.91/bu.<br />
.98/bu.<br />
99%<br />
95%<br />
Soybeans - Dry land<br />
30 bu./acre<br />
<strong>No</strong>v. 8.34 -.20 8.14/bu. 4.71/bu.<br />
7.01/bu.<br />
3.43/bu.<br />
1.13/bu<br />
93%<br />
74%<br />
BT/RR Cotton - Dry<br />
land<br />
650 lb./acre<br />
Dec. .55 -.04 .51/lb. .48/lb.<br />
.63/lb.<br />
.3/bu.<br />
-.12/lb<br />
70%<br />
<strong>21</strong>%<br />
BT/RR Cotton -<br />
Irrigated<br />
1000 lb./acre<br />
Dec. .55 -.04 .51/lb. .40/lb.<br />
.57/lb.<br />
.11/lb.<br />
-.6/lb.<br />
99%<br />
8%<br />
Fed Cattle<br />
Placed in this week sell<br />
at 1200 lbs.<br />
Dec. 95.22 -1.50 93.72/cwt 83.69/cwt<br />
83.69/cwt<br />
10.03/cwt<br />
10.03/cwt<br />
99%<br />
99%<br />
Hogs<br />
Farrow to Finish*<br />
Farrowing this week<br />
Dec. 46.66 -3.60 43.06/cwt. 31.97/cwt<br />
40.26/cwt.<br />
11.09/cwt<br />
2.80/cwt<br />
99%<br />
39%<br />
Feeder Pig<br />
Finishing*<br />
Placed this week<br />
Oct. 48.07 -.10 47.97/cwt. 42.52/cwt.<br />
45.62/cwt.<br />
5.45/cwt<br />
2.35/cwt<br />
99%<br />
99%<br />
*Total Confinement<br />
Cost of production figures may be obtained upon request. Each cost of production is an estimate of cost for a Georgia producer at the indicated yield. Participation in<br />
Government commodity programs can greatly affect the level of profitability for the various crop enterprises. Land and management cost are not included in the crop<br />
and livestock cost estimates. * Excludes LDP for crops.
GRAIN PRICE PROFILE<br />
Cash Bids and New Crop Contacts<br />
CORN WHEAT SOYBEANS<br />
Location Cash Contract* Cash Contract** Cash Contract***<br />
Southwest Ga.<br />
Southeast Ga.<br />
Central Ga.<br />
<strong>No</strong>rth<br />
Brunswick<br />
*Aug-Sept Delivery **<strong>May</strong>-June Delivery ***Oct-Dec Delivery<br />
Cash Wheat Mill Direct - Macon -------<br />
FEED CASH PRICE<br />
MID WESTERN CORN SOYBEAN MEAL 48%<br />
This week Last week This week Last week<br />
FOB NORTH GA. -------- -------- ----------- ----------<br />
FOB SOUTH GA. -------- -------- ---------- ----------<br />
FOB EAST GA. -------- -------- ------- ----------<br />
Georgia ASCS Posted Adjusted Market Price:<br />
Adjusted World Price Cotton<br />
LIVESTOCK PRICE PROFILE<br />
GEORGIA AUCTION <strong>May</strong> <strong>24</strong>, <strong>2007</strong><br />
*Prices furnished by Federal State Market News, Thomasville, GA. For up-to-date prices call (1-800-342-1440)<br />
Medium Frame #1 Steers: 2-250 cwt $135-165 down $6 from last week; 250-3 cwt $130-158 up $1 from last week;<br />
3-350 cwt $123-145 down $3 from last week; 350-4 cwt $117-130 down $4 from last week; 4-450 cwt $110-1<strong>24</strong><br />
down $5 from last week; 450-5 cwt $105-119 down $4 from last week; 5-550 cwt $104-115 down $2 from last week;<br />
550-6 cwt $100-115 same as last week; 6-650 cwt $96-108 up $6 from last week; 650-7 cwt $90-107 down $5 from<br />
last week; 7-750 cwt $93-105 up $2 from last week.<br />
Medium Frame #1 Heifers: 2-250 cwt $120-135 down $5 from last week; 250-3 cwt $117-125 down $8 from last<br />
week; 3-350 cwt $112-130 same as last week; 350-4 cwt $105-116 down $6 from last week; 4-450 cwt $101-111<br />
down $4 from last week; 450-5 cwt $99-113 down $2 from last week; 5-550 cwt $94-109 down $1 from last week;<br />
550-6 cwt $91-102 down $1 from last week; 6-650 cwt $89-97 down $1 from last week; 650-7 cwt $87-95 same as<br />
last week.<br />
Slaughter Classes: Breakers $47-48 down $9 from last week; Boners $47-53 down $5 from last week; Boners Hi<br />
Yield $54-55 down $5 from last week; Lean $43-48 down $7 from last week.<br />
Live and Carcass Hog Price -Eastern Cornbelt Direct (5/23/07) Barrows & Gilts - Live Basis <strong>24</strong>0-280 lbs. $48.26-<br />
60.10 Average - 57.07 Carcass - 185 lbs $64.50-75.68 Average - 71.34<br />
Sows 500 lbs.-up : $40.25-43.13 Average - 41.09<br />
John C. McKissick<br />
Extension Economist-Livestock<br />
George Shumaker<br />
Extension Economist-Grain Marketing<br />
COUNTY EXTENSION AGENT OR DIRECTOR