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How much fiscal consolidation is needed in the medium-term • Estimating how much medium-term fiscal consolidation is needed is difficult – Official estimates of the size of the hole in the public finances have changed over time – View about medium-term public finance position is sensitive to view taken on how much scope there is for economic recovery – Also depends on how tax revenues and spending respond as economy recovers © Institute for Fiscal Studies
Percentage of national income HMT Budget 2008 HMT PBR 2008 HMT Budget 2009 HMT PBR 2009 HMT Budget March 2010 OBR Budget June 2010 OBR November 2010 OBR Budget 2011 OBR November 2011 OBR Budget 2012 OBR December 2012 Size of the problem and the planned solution: changes over time 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Size of the problem Planned fiscal consolidation © Institute for Fiscal Studies Notes and sources: see Figures 5.5 and 5.6 of The IFS Green Budget: February 2013. Additional calculations using Budgets, Pre-Budget Reports and Economic and Fiscal Outlooks since March 2008.
Page 1 and 2: Public finances: outlook and risks
Page 3: Percentage of national income 1996-
Page 7 and 8: £ billion George Osborne has allow
Page 9 and 10: Wide range of views among forecaste
Page 11 and 12: Borrowing could be higher than the
Page 13 and 14: % of national income Summary of alt
Page 15: Key points • IFS baseline forecas

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