OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Introduction
PAKISTAN: DEMOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Demography and climate change are two silent phenomena. Unlike other natural calamities, the
effects are not felt until they are already deeply entrenched. We are lucky that we can read the natural
trends and can plan to respond. The study of demography in Pakistan presents some absorbing trends.
Population growth rate of Pakistan fluctuated from 1950 to 1972 and settled down to steady ratio in the
decade of 2000 to 2012. The reasons are varied and implications tremendous. Climate change is
undoubtedly the most serious environmental crisis Earth is experiencing in recent history. The impact of
climate change along with the destruction of ecosystems associated with the relentless industrialization
will transform forever its physical and biological properties. Indeed, in the context of Pakistan, climate
change is not only the biggest environmental threat faced by the country but is also likely to be the cause of
extraordinary social and economic problems in the course of this century.
The article makes an attempt to establish that the demographic trends in Pakistan have tremendous
potential which is being marred by lack of understanding of its consequences on national development and
National Security. The rapid population growth presents both an opportunity and a nightmare to Pakistan.
If incredible energies of the youth bulge are harnessed and channelized they could turn out to be our
biggest asset. On the other hand, if sight is lost, Pakistan could easily drift into mayhem. Despite being
amongst the lowest contributors, Pakistan is most vulnerable to climate change due to its dependence on
weather patterns, melting of HKH glaciers and their effects on water patterns in Indus River System.
Pakistan has limited capacity to adapt to climate change and the impact will be immense, threatening the
water, food, energy and human security.
In later part of the article, in order to find out the accumulated effects on National Comprehensive
Security calculus, an effort has been made to establish the linkage of these two important areas as there are
some striking similarities between impacts of demography and climate change. Most environmental
problems, including those arising from climate change, tend to increase in magnitude due to bulging rise in
population. In the last part, response matrix covering short, medium and long term recommendations have
been proffered to control and mitigate the effects of this phenomenon.
Demography
Demography is the scientific study of human population 1 . It covers the statistics from birth to
death of an individual and once analyzed scientifically becomes the demography of a particular nation.
Contemporary thought on demography focus upon human resources and its potentials for policy planning
rather than taking it as simple statistics. The development of human resources has been considered to be
the main attribute of the Capitalism 2 . Globalization is creating significant thought for Human Resource
Management (HRM) 3 , a concept which demands to choose, recruit and train the right people for right type
of work. Pakistan is a labour surplus economy 4 . Thus in Pakistan, suitable exploitation of demography is a
binding rather than an option.
International Approach to Human Development
The International Conference on Population and development (ICPD) held in Cairo in 1994 was a
milestone in the recent history of population and development. The Programme of Action was adopted by
179 countries. At the United Nations Millennium summit held in 2000 to which Pakistan is also a
signatory, clearly defined eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and provided strategic
framework for operationalization of population and development policies by all member countries. These
goals are to be achieved by 2015.
The performance of Pakistan in achieving these goals has been only satisfactory. With existing
pace, Pakistan is likely to achieve considerable success on only two from the list, which are primary
education for all and global partnerships for development. The reasons are numerous and can be mainly
attributed to lack of continuity of policies, capacity issues and regional dynamics to implement these
policies by successive governments. Host of other social norms have further accentuated the problems and
thus the country has lagged behind on almost all the MDGs.
Demographic Trends in Asian Context
In the 1930s, large empires –British and Japanese controlled Asia. By 1950, well trenched Nation
States had emerged. This had effects on demography, changed migration pattern and nationalities as well.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 92 June 2013