OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

influence and eastern and southern provinces come under their de facto control. There is limited
anarchy in many parts of the country. Increased drone strikes and intelligence-led operations are
causing collateral damage but not eroding the capability of insurgents. Efforts for peace and
reconciliation are taken over by UN with full US support. Close to 2020, Kabul lingers on with
fractured central authority. Warring factions have consolidated their alliances. US is actively
backing Northern Alliance but losing interest. Taliban led alliance is receiving covert support
from some sympathizers.
Implications
US and her allies continue implicating Pakistan as an abettor of terrorism.
Continuous presence of US forces in a volatile neighbourhood would pose serious threats to the
internal stability of Pakistan in particular and the region in general.
Drone strikes continue breaching the sovereignty of Pakistan thus inviting public wrath, unless, a
regime change in Pakistan post 2013 general elections reverses the situation.
Interference in Balochistan by the Indians with cross border incursions in FATA by terrorists
hiding in Nuristan.
Pakistan may face pressure, allegedly for not facilitating the reconciliation process.
Scenario 4: Destabilized Afghanistan (Most Dangerous)
Main elements are:-
Assumptions
Taliban on winning streak.
No reconciliation.
Al-Qaeda ideology remains.
Insurgents continue with renewed vigour.
Power struggle intensifies among political / ethnic factions.
Afghanistan –Pakistan border region loses respective government’s writ.
Afghan government structure collapse.
ANSF fragmented and joins ethnic affiliations.
All neighbouring countries promote respective interests.
Chinese exit from economic scene.
Uncertainties
US future objectives and strategy.
Level of Taliban resistance.
Pakistan’s leverage.
Scenario – 2024. The adoption of extreme positions by insurgents and staunch and uncompromising
stances by US and Afghanistan Government dominated by Northern Alliance
govern this outcome. The planned political and security transition in Afghanistan fails. India
works up the anti-Pakistan Afghan elements to increase pressure on Pakistan. US continue with
its ‘aid and raid’ approach in Afghanistan. There is greater anarchy and new round of civil war.
NATO supply route via Pakistan is shut down. US rely on Northern Distribution Network (NDN)
which the Russians resist. There is a unanimous call from regional States for US to vacate its
military bases from Afghanistan. Insecurity in larger part of the country means that election
process is halted. International support starts reducing due to changed objectives / terrorist’s
attacks. State structures become irrelevant and non-existant. There is no single authority in
Kabul. Northern Alliance from North and Taliban’s from South and East compete for control
over Kabul. This development is unlikely to kick in before 2014, as the Taliban are not in a
position to achieve a comprehensive military victory as long as NATO/ISAF troops are present.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 89 June 2013