OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

More documents

Recommendations

Info

planned. Coalition of moderate Taliban and Northern Alliance form the Government. International support continues as pledged. Level of trust increases amongst stakeholders. Fighting continues between ANSF / US Forces and hardliner Taliban with low intensity. Cross border attacks reduce / Haqqani Groups access to sanctuaries in NWA denied to a fair degree. Uneasy peace continues with fair degree of development in Kandhar and Helmand as well. Eventually in mid to long-term ANSF / US Forces overpower hardliner Taliban and regain control of maximum areas. Development and prosperity returns to Afghanistan. Implications Drone strikes halt, which helps in improving Pakistan’s internal security situation with peace returning to FATA. Interference in Balochistan by the Indians and cross border incursions in FATA by terrorists hiding in Nuristan stops. Repatriation of Afghan refugees. Helps Pakistan fight extremism / terrorism / sub-nationalism. However, US footprint on Afghan soil will continue to raise concerns for Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran and CARs. Future of Afghanistan as an ‘Energy Corridor’ would be bright. Socio-economic development of the region becomes possible. Narco trade recedes. Binary stretch on Pakistan military ends. Scenario 3: Simmering Militancy Main elements are:- Assumptions Taliban on winning streak. No reconciliation. Limited power sharing arrangement. Insurgents continue with renewed vigour. Power struggle among political / ethnic factions continue with same tempo. US sponsored government. US presence and military bases. Preferential treatment to Northern Alliance. Afghanistan –Pakistan border region remains troubled. Chinese and Indian involvement in developmental activities. ANSF not potent enough to control insurgency. Uncertainties US future objectives and strategy. Regional consensus. Social and economic development. Scenario – 2024. Insurgents disregard all efforts of reconciliation on the plea of not accepting their preconditions. US drawdown provides notion of victory and further toughens their stance irrespective of concerted governmental efforts spearheaded by the re-elected President. New government duly recognized by international community makes some structural reforms and struggles to improve governance. Drawdown progresses as planned. US reduces physical presence but retains high influence. Efforts by ISAF to train ANA continue. Taliban expand their OPINION Vol.1 No.1 88 June 2013
influence and eastern and southern provinces come under their de facto control. There is limited anarchy in many parts of the country. Increased drone strikes and intelligence-led operations are causing collateral damage but not eroding the capability of insurgents. Efforts for peace and reconciliation are taken over by UN with full US support. Close to 2020, Kabul lingers on with fractured central authority. Warring factions have consolidated their alliances. US is actively backing Northern Alliance but losing interest. Taliban led alliance is receiving covert support from some sympathizers. Implications US and her allies continue implicating Pakistan as an abettor of terrorism. Continuous presence of US forces in a volatile neighbourhood would pose serious threats to the internal stability of Pakistan in particular and the region in general. Drone strikes continue breaching the sovereignty of Pakistan thus inviting public wrath, unless, a regime change in Pakistan post 2013 general elections reverses the situation. Interference in Balochistan by the Indians with cross border incursions in FATA by terrorists hiding in Nuristan. Pakistan may face pressure, allegedly for not facilitating the reconciliation process. Scenario 4: Destabilized Afghanistan (Most Dangerous) Main elements are:- Assumptions Taliban on winning streak. No reconciliation. Al-Qaeda ideology remains. Insurgents continue with renewed vigour. Power struggle intensifies among political / ethnic factions. Afghanistan –Pakistan border region loses respective government’s writ. Afghan government structure collapse. ANSF fragmented and joins ethnic affiliations. All neighbouring countries promote respective interests. Chinese exit from economic scene. Uncertainties US future objectives and strategy. Level of Taliban resistance. Pakistan’s leverage. Scenario – 2024. The adoption of extreme positions by insurgents and staunch and uncompromising stances by US and Afghanistan Government dominated by Northern Alliance govern this outcome. The planned political and security transition in Afghanistan fails. India works up the anti-Pakistan Afghan elements to increase pressure on Pakistan. US continue with its ‘aid and raid’ approach in Afghanistan. There is greater anarchy and new round of civil war. NATO supply route via Pakistan is shut down. US rely on Northern Distribution Network (NDN) which the Russians resist. There is a unanimous call from regional States for US to vacate its military bases from Afghanistan. Insecurity in larger part of the country means that election process is halted. International support starts reducing due to changed objectives / terrorist’s attacks. State structures become irrelevant and non-existant. There is no single authority in Kabul. Northern Alliance from North and Taliban’s from South and East compete for control over Kabul. This development is unlikely to kick in before 2014, as the Taliban are not in a position to achieve a comprehensive military victory as long as NATO/ISAF troops are present. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 89 June 2013
Page 1 and 2:
O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
Page 3 and 4:
MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
Page 5 and 6:
TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
Page 7 and 8:
Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
Page 9 and 10:
Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
Page 11 and 12:
post-Arab Spring transition in the
Page 13 and 14:
Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
Page 15 and 16:
Infrastructural Development It
Page 17 and 18:
Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
Page 19 and 20:
Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
Page 21 and 22:
of peace negotiations, saying that
Page 23 and 24:
Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
Page 25 and 26:
Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
Page 27 and 28:
Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
Page 29 and 30:
COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
Page 31 and 32:
US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
Page 33 and 34:
Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
Page 35 and 36:
• Determine the punishment regime
Page 37 and 38:
other states, or produce counter na
Page 39 and 40:
Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
Page 41 and 42:
protecting Indian investments overs
Page 43 and 44: India’s Military. Indian military
Page 45 and 46: India has neither been able to prod
Page 47 and 48: In an idealistic scenario, where In
Page 49 and 50: Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
Page 51 and 52: come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53 and 54: In the face of the growing importan
Page 55 and 56: Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
Page 57 and 58: power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60: Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
Page 61 and 62: Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
Page 63 and 64: the region of Northwest Africa, wes
Page 65 and 66: Transparency International report f
Page 67 and 68: leading to the best case scenario.
Page 69 and 70: Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
Page 71 and 72: PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
Page 73 and 74: the establishment of the Bretton Wo
Page 75 and 76: Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
Page 77 and 78: years and yet an air of distrust st
Page 79 and 80: can cause capital flight, which is
Page 81 and 82: Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
Page 83 and 84: Conclusion of other hostile element
Page 85 and 86: 58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
Page 87 and 88: Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
Page 89 and 90: Tranche 1: began transition in July
Page 91 and 92: PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
Page 93: Indian and Chinese involvement in d
Page 97 and 98: scenario would have grave implicati
Page 99 and 100: In present day Asia, three big demo
Page 101 and 102: Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
Page 103 and 104: The increase in glacial melting may
Page 105 and 106: Demography. Unplanned expansion of
Page 107 and 108: Legislate to ensure energy efficien
Page 109 and 110: 26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
Page 111 and 112: INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
Page 113 and 114: During the conflict, leaders/offici
Page 115 and 116: Pakistan, India, without any formal
Page 117 and 118: or the establishment of stability a
Page 119 and 120: Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
Page 121 and 122: The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
Page 123 and 124: Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
Page 125 and 126: American Operational Art - WW II O
Page 127 and 128: war began. By early 1951, the fight
Page 129 and 130: • Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
Page 131 and 132: WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
Page 133 and 134: 35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
Page 135 and 136: are not necessarily new. The four e
Page 137 and 138: Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
Page 139 and 140: • Terrorists now have transnation
Page 141 and 142: hierarchical organizations. Technol
Page 143 and 144: Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
Page 145 and 146:
PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
Page 147 and 148:
Commission for Human Security, co c
Page 149:
3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
show all

OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?