OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Indian and Chinese involvement in developmental activities.
Uncertainties
US future objectives and strategy.
Regional consensus.
Capability and credibility of Afghan security apparatus.
Scenario – 2024. Realization by insurgent groups to reconcile differences post US drawdown
for Afghanistan, irrespective of Afghan government’s failure to address larger cause of Afghan
stabilization and peace. Reconciliation process remains under strain due to negative influence of
Afghan government and Tajiks sensing compromise of their interests. US drawdown as planned.
Elections are held, some Taliban/other factions boycott elections. Government retains power
with a new President but public dis-contentment with the government continues. International
support continues as pledged. Mistrust to a varying degree continues amongst internal and
external stakeholders. No significant change in regional dynamics; Afghanistan remains a
battleground of conflicting interests, both positive and negative. Battle of dominance continues
between ANSF / US Forces and belligerent Taliban. Cross border attacks and Haqqani Group
access to sanctuaries in North Waziristan Agency (NWA) continues. Uneasy peace with relative
instability prevails with fair degree of development.
Implications
Continuous presence of US forces in a volatile neighbourhood would pose serious threats to the
internal stability of Pakistan in particular and the region in general.
Drone strikes will continue breaching the sovereignty of Pakistan albeit with low intensity.
Interference in Balochistan by the Indians to support sub-nationalist groups will continue.
Repatriation of refugees may not be possible.
US footprint on Afghan soil will continue to raise concerns for Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran and
CARs.
Future of Afghanistan as an ‘Energy Corridor’ would be relatively low.
US financial constraints and reduction in development aid for Afghanistan will directly affect
Afghan economy and will have direct / indirect effects on Pakistan’s economy.
Scenario 2: Stable Afghanistan
Main elements are:-
Assumptions
Consensus among ethnic / political factions.
Internal divide in Taliban with hardliners not willing to reconcile over US footprint.
Pakistan negotiation with Taliban / Haqqani network succeeds.
National consensus government with US support.
ANSF – emerging as a potent force.
US presence and military bases.
Dominant and reconciliatory role of tribal warlords.
Indian and Chinese involvement in developmental activities.
Uncertainties
US future objectives and strategy.
Regional consensus.
Scenario – 2024. Mutual realization by all internal stakeholders on future peace and stability and
reconciling extremes. Reconciliation process partially succeeds / moderate Taliban joins
government. Moderate Taliban participate in elections while hardliners boycott. US drawdown as
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 87 June 2013