OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

US-Afghanistan Strategic Agreement and US-India strategic partnership.
Respective national interests of Pakistan and Iran in Afghanistan.
Reconciliation process and diminishing Al-Qaeda strength and influence.
Blame on Pakistan for not playing a positive role as a facilitator.
Economic
Donors pledges viz-a-viz donor fatigue.
Rampant corruption and poor governance detrimental to economic growth.
Economic salvation linked to development of mining sector in long term and associated
challenges.
Low socio-economic development despite huge aid during last decade.
Socio-cultural
Total aversion to outside interference.
Dominant role of tribal warlords and ethnicity.
Lack of human resource development and social deprivations.
Poor governance and endemic corruption.
Security
ANSF’s questionable viability.
Capability viz requirement to take on security transition.
Financial sustainability.
Post-2014 Scenarios (2024)
S C EN A R IO S - 2 0 2 4
Effe cti ve G o vern m e n tal P o lic ies
Sim m erin g M il itan c y
Stab le Afgh an is tan
A n ta go n ist
In s u rgen t
Po lic ie s
Co n c ilia tory
I n su rgen t
Po li cie s
D es tab ili zed
Afgh an is tan
M u d d lin g Th ro u gh
In effe c tive Go ve rn m en tal Po lic ie s
1 1 9
Scenario 1: Muddling Through (Most likely)
Main elements are:-
Assumptions
Positive realization by insurgents among themselves.
Pakistan is negotiation with Taliban / Haqqani partially successful.
Weak and split Afghan government - US sponsored.
No structural reforms, institutional disharmony, nepotism and endemic corruption.
Preferential treatment to Northern Alliance, which plays spoiler role in achieving reconciliation.
ANSF not potent enough to control insurgency completely.
US presence and military bases.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 86 June 2013