OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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Saudi Arabia Saudi interests in Afghanistan include; countering Iranian influences in Afghanistan; strengthening pro Saudi Sunni factions in Afghanistan; eliminating the threats of terrorism and extremism; control of narcotic drugs and trans-border crimes flowing out of Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia has the capability to play a constructive role in facilitating Afghan consensus on an acceptable dispensation in Kabul. Saudi Arabia is likely to support the US led transition. India Pakistan Indian interests in Afghanistan include:- Gradually regain its influence in Kabul to the level that existed prior to the 1979 Soviet invasion and take it to even higher levels, primarily to enhance its leverage in Afghanistan vis-à-vis Pakistan. Help strengthen and bring to power the pro-India and anti-Pakistan factions. Build an intelligence network in Afghanistan to foment trouble in Balochistan, FATA and other parts of Pakistan and build an image of a benign and friendly power. Eliminate the scope of “militant support” for the Kashmiri freedom fighters through eliminating “the sanctuaries” in Afghanistan. Establish transit and trade links and energy corridors with the CARs via Iran and Afghanistan. Minimize “Afghan dependence on Pakistan” while enhancing its “partnership” with India. The time apparently looks propitious for India to push for its interests and objectives in Afghanistan, but it may still be premature for India to play any effective role in Afghanistan for the following reasons: Any military role for India would be available only at the cost of losing Pakistan’s support, which would not be a worthwhile option. India itself would be reluctant to commit military forces knowing that any country committing military foot-print in Afghanistan earns the hatred of the Afghan people and at the end leaves with a bloody nose. India cannot play any meaningful role in the reconciliation process which is between the US and the Taliban factions. India enjoys limited clout with the Karzai government and the non-Pashtun factions previously part of the Northern Alliance with whom the US itself enjoys far stronger clout. Pakistan’s main interests in Afghanistan at the present juncture may be summarized as follows:- Restoration of peace and stability in Afghanistan. Elimination of terrorism and extremism. Preventing use of Afghan soil by terrorists against Pakistan and other countries. Preventing hostile/Indian military foot print in Afghanistan threatening Pakistan’s security. Peaceful and secure borders with Afghanistan. Security of transit/trade routes and energy corridors passing through Afghanistan. Repatriation of Afghan Refugees. Multifaceted cooperation with Afghanistan at bilateral, regional and multilateral levels. Pakistan’s role will remain crucial in the post 2014 scenario. On its own and in concert with other stake holders, Pakistan would do its utmost to facilitate an orderly and smooth transition in 2014 for the earliest restoration of peace and stability in Afghanistan which is a necessary precondition for the realization of its vital interests. 15 OPINION Vol.1 No.1 84 June 2013
PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN The American plans of bringing about peace in the war torn Afghanistan are under high strain. The way forward is actually now the way out. Through a scenario building exercise, an effort has been made to arrive at a probable set of scenarios for post 2014 Afghanistan. Imperatives Drivers Political A meaningful dialogue between the US/Afghan government and Taliban / Hizb-e-Islami/other factions on power sharing between Pashtuns and Tajiks, US versus Taliban; Afghan constitution and US foot print in Afghanistan. Good Governance and Rule of Law. Security Capacity building of ANSF. ISAF drawdown (in depriving the insurgency of their main justification). Use of smart power, in terms of generating incentives for the Taliban through greater share in power and other means with ultimate aim of raising their stakes in peace and stability. Socio - Economic Growth and sustenance of economy. Socio-economic development. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Cultural dynamics (non-interference in cultural matters). There are political, strategic, social, economic and cultural drivers, which are and will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Afghanistan. Interplay of proportionate and combined effects of fusion of selected drivers i.e. governmental policies and insurgent policies given in succeeding paragraphs is likely to shape different scenarios. Governmental Policies US. Perceived change in the US policy towards politico-economic development from military centric approach and engaging Taliban for a negotiated settlement reflects a paradigm shift. Afghanistan. Shift in power sharing arrangement by current Afghan government as an outcome of reconciliation process, resource sharing arrangement and behaviour of next Afghan government will facilitate the stability in Afghanistan. Pakistan. Role in helping create conducive conditions for a grand intra-Afghan settlement. Insurgents Policies Taliban. From adopting a rational policy to continue fighting. Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda has lost its influence and carries only symbolic value. Haqqani Group Other Groups Prevailing Trends Various discernible trends in different domains having pronounced bearing on the contours of Afghanistan are:- Politico – Diplomatic US will keep low footprint albeit high influence, post 2014. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 85 June 2013
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O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
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MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
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Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
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Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
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post-Arab Spring transition in the
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Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
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Infrastructural Development It
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Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
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Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
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of peace negotiations, saying that
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Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
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Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
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Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
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COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
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US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
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Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
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• Determine the punishment regime
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other states, or produce counter na
Page 39 and 40: Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
Page 41 and 42: protecting Indian investments overs
Page 43 and 44: India’s Military. Indian military
Page 45 and 46: India has neither been able to prod
Page 47 and 48: In an idealistic scenario, where In
Page 49 and 50: Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
Page 51 and 52: come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53 and 54: In the face of the growing importan
Page 55 and 56: Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
Page 57 and 58: power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60: Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
Page 61 and 62: Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
Page 63 and 64: the region of Northwest Africa, wes
Page 65 and 66: Transparency International report f
Page 67 and 68: leading to the best case scenario.
Page 69 and 70: Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
Page 71 and 72: PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
Page 73 and 74: the establishment of the Bretton Wo
Page 75 and 76: Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
Page 77 and 78: years and yet an air of distrust st
Page 79 and 80: can cause capital flight, which is
Page 81 and 82: Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
Page 83 and 84: Conclusion of other hostile element
Page 85 and 86: 58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
Page 87 and 88: Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
Page 89: Tranche 1: began transition in July
Page 93 and 94: Indian and Chinese involvement in d
Page 95 and 96: influence and eastern and southern
Page 97 and 98: scenario would have grave implicati
Page 99 and 100: In present day Asia, three big demo
Page 101 and 102: Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
Page 103 and 104: The increase in glacial melting may
Page 105 and 106: Demography. Unplanned expansion of
Page 107 and 108: Legislate to ensure energy efficien
Page 109 and 110: 26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
Page 111 and 112: INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
Page 113 and 114: During the conflict, leaders/offici
Page 115 and 116: Pakistan, India, without any formal
Page 117 and 118: or the establishment of stability a
Page 119 and 120: Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
Page 121 and 122: The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
Page 123 and 124: Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
Page 125 and 126: American Operational Art - WW II O
Page 127 and 128: war began. By early 1951, the fight
Page 129 and 130: • Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
Page 131 and 132: WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
Page 133 and 134: 35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
Page 135 and 136: are not necessarily new. The four e
Page 137 and 138: Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
Page 139 and 140: • Terrorists now have transnation
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hierarchical organizations. Technol
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Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
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PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
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Commission for Human Security, co c
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3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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