OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is the largest producer of hydroelectricity in Central Asia. Its
estimated potential is 40,000 MW. 6 Kyrgyzstan is the second largest hydropower. It has a
potential of producing 26,000 MW.
Energy Profile in South Asia
Pakistan’s Energy Matrix. Energy consumption in Pakistan has grown by almost 80% over the
past 15 years. 7 Since 2006/07 country is facing serious energy shortage. Currently, the estimated cost
of power crisis to the economy is approximately Rs. 380 billion per year, around 2% of GDP. 8
Around 38% of population is without modern electricity services. 9 There is a shortage in access of
5000 MW in summers. In the winters of 2011/12, Pakistan faced a gas shortage of around 1.1 billion
cubic feet per day. 10 Pakistan imported 68.1% of its oil demand during 2010-11. 11
Indian Energy Matrix. Being the sixth largest energy consumer in the world, India's crude imports
are expected to double in a decade. 12 India imports 70% of its oil demand and about one third of
natural gas. 13 India is likely to become the largest coal importer in 2020s. 14 Around 25% of Indian
population is without electricity. 15
Afghanistan.
Afghanistan.
Existing Economic Cooperation
Access to public electricity supply is limited to about 16% of the population in
Pakistan. The current volume of trade Between Pakistan and CARs is just 0.1% of the total trade of
Pakistan. 16 To institutionalize cooperation, Pakistan has established joint economic commissions with
all CARs. The National Bank of Pakistan has branches in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan. Tajikistan currently imports most of its cement from Pakistan. Pakistan and Tajikistan
have also eased travel restrictions. 17 Uzbek President signed four agreements and six Memoranda of
Understanding with Pakistan during his visit in 2006, to expand economic cooperation. In 1995, an
agreement among Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan and China (Almaty-Bishkek-Kashgar-
Karakorum-Islamabad-Karachi network) on traffic-in transit was signed and is operative since 2006. 18
Currently, it is not functioning due to blockage of Karakorum Highway.
India. India currently has only around $400 million trade with CARs which accounts for merely
0.1% of total volume of Indian trade. 19 Its cooperation with Uzbekistan includes Indo-Uzbek Centre
for promotion of Scientific and Technological Cooperation, Jawaharlal Nehru IT Centre in Tashkent,
and purchase of six Uzbek-manufactured IL-78 air-to-air refuelling aircraft including repair
agreement. With Kazakhstan, India has joint ventures and investment in the oil and natural gas
sectors and collaboration in textile industry. 20 In Tajikistan, India has built a hospital cum military
base in Farkhor and has also constructed an airfield at Ayni. In 2006, five documents were signed for
cooperation in energy, trade, security, science, technology and culture. In 2009, India announced
plans for investment of $16 million in the cement industry and $12 million to develop gas fields.
TAPI. Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan signed an agreement in 2002 for transmission of
Turkmen gas. India later joined this project in 2008. 21 The estimated cost of project is $7.6 billion
which has been promised by ADB. The pipeline will be 1,680 kilometres long and will transit 90
million cubic meters gas per day for 30 years and will become operational by 2018. 22
CASA – 1000 Project. Initiated in 2006, CASA-1000 would transmit 1300 MW electricity from
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan (300 MW) and Pakistan (1000 MW). The starting date for
the project is 2014 and is likely to be completed within five years. 23 As per estimates the project
would cost $873 million. 24
Infrastructural Development
Existing Infrastructure. There has been a strong emphasis on investments in transport infrastructure
in the region. The recent developments include a $36 million US-funded bridge which opened in 2007
over the Panj River between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. 25 In Afghanistan, the 2700 kilometers ring
road connecting all major cities is near completion. The work on its last section of 233 kilometers
started in August 2012. 26 China-Tajikistan highway across Kulma Pass has been developed. 27 This
road joins with the existing Almaty – Karachi route. Additionally, the Gwadar deep sea port has
doubled the capacity of Pakistani oceanic trade and also reduced the distances by approximately 500
kilometers for Pakistan-Central Asia traffic.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 3 June 2013