OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Elections 2014
Joint appeal to the Taliban and other armed opposition groups to participate in the
Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process to end violence. There was pledge by
Pakistan to the release a number of Taliban detainees in response to requests of the Afghan
government/HPC. All concerned countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan and USA will
facilitate safe passage to potential negotiators to advance reconciliation process. Pakistan and
Afghanistan will work closely with other international partners to remove the names from the
UN sanctions list of the potential negotiators amongst Taliban. Joint appeal to the Taliban and
other armed groups to sever all links with Al-Qaeda, and other international terror networks.
Schedule of next elections coincides with exit of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).
According to provisions of Afghan constitution, Karzai cannot contest the elections a third time. Some of
the names being speculated for the presidential seat are: Atta Mohammad (Tajik), FarooqWardak
(Pashtun), Mohammad Hanif (Pashtun) and Ashraf Ghani (Pashtun). 7 In a departure from the past, level
of popular political participation has risen and demands for regional autonomy and wider political
participation are much stronger.
Chicago Summit
Post 2014 Afghanistan was on top of the agenda of the NATO Summit held at Chicago from 20-
21 May 2012. Important elements of the declaration included 8 ; emphasis on a ‘comprehensive approach’
and continued improvements in governance; ANSF will be in the lead for security nationwide after the
security transition by mid-2013; NATO will “continue to provide strong and practical support” to
Afghanistan through a new post 2014 “non-combat” mission to “train, advise, and assist the ANSF”;
forthcoming elections must be conducted with full respect to Afghan sovereignty and in accordance with
the Constitution in a transparent and credible manner; and roles of regional countries, “particularly
Pakistan”, to ensure “enduring peace, stability and security in Afghanistan and in facilitating the
completion of the transition process”.
Socio-Economic Dimensions
Afghanistan has made considerable progress in many areas. Some key developments include
improvement in basic infrastructure and essential public service delivery. Future progress on the
economic front would largely depend on: realization of the $16 billion pledged at the July 2012 Tokyo
Conference; development and utilization of multi-trillion dollar mining industry; and productive use of
Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) already operationalized. The main features of
the Afghan economy can be summarized as follows: 9
Average GDP growth over FY 2003/04 to 2010/11 has been 9.1%, attributable mainly to
consumption. Private investment and exports remain extremely low. Budget continues to rely
heavily on external financing. Aid is estimated to be $15.7 billion i.e. about the same as the size
of the GDP in fiscal year 2011. Despite high GDP growth rate, Afghanistan remains one of the
least developed countries with 1/3 of the population living below poverty line. Sustained growth
at 6% a year would be required for next 22 years to double Afghanistan’s GDP and generate the
necessary employment levels. One striking feature of Afghan economy is its informal / illegal
nature, which has sustained the society in turbulent times when the state failed. 10
PART-II
STRATEGIC AND SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
The US-led coalition has trained and put in place the ANSF, mostly comprising Afghan National
Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP), with a combined strength of 352,000 as of September
2012. The security and strategic environment remains complex and uncertain. With occasional
fluctuations in the intensity and frequency of the number of attacks, the insurgency remains pretty strong.
The latest trend of the so called “Green on Blue” attacks is a stark reminder of the disintegration of the
Najibullah forces short of the collapse of the Communist regime.
Who Is “The Enemy”
There are multiple and diverse armed groups, loosely allied, who continue to challenge security
in Afghanistan. There is no consensus on the relative strength of both criminal gangs disguised as
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 81 June 2013