OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

An Altered World’s Perception. The uprisings have changed world’s perception about the
Arabs who rose up against authoritarian regimes peacefully for universal democratic values such as
freedom, justice and democracy. The non-violent uprising with no political or religious affiliation is
being viewed as a step towards greater harmony and understanding between East and West due to a
common vision of freedom and democracy.
Irrevocable Change. Arab uprising has been a watershed event, with the Arab world
irrevocably changed. Regime change has already taken place in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya. Rulers
of other states, including oil rich countries (who could temporarily pacify people with financial
incentives) are under immense pressure to initiate genuine political and economic reforms. It is a matter
of time that young Arabs would effectively challenge such regimes, encouraged by their successes in
Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen.
Arab Uprising – Hijacked by Islamists. Genuine, nonviolent uprising of young Arab men and
women seems to have been hijacked by organized Islamist parties such as Ennahda in Tunisia and
Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. 32 Democratic reforms as cherished by young revolutionaries are nowhere
in sight as yet. On-going unrest in Egypt and dissatisfaction in Tunisia and Yemen suggest a long way to
true freedom and democracy.
Youth Factor. Marginalized and unemployed Arab youth played the key role in uprising and
emerged as a common denominator. Educated and well connected to each other, the youth will keep the
spirit of uprising alive till the regimes embark upon genuine political and economic reforms.
Role of Technology and Social Media. Social media has emerged as a powerful tool to
instigate or motivate people for uprising. Cell phones, internet, Facebook, Twitter etc. have displayed an
immense potential to coordinate collective events, protests and mass movements with the capacity to
achieve political objectives such as regime change. 33
Interests of US and the West. For US and the west, democratization of Arab world has never
been the end in itself. What matters to them are their economic interests and influence in the region, as
clearly evident from their uneven response to the Arab uprisings. Under the given circumstances, US will
encourage democratic change as per people’s aspirations where absolutely essential (Egypt, Tunisia,
Yemen, Libya) and continue to support monarchies where uprisings could not make a bigger dent.
A Threat to Israel. The Arab uprising which has induced the urge for democracy among the
Arab nation has increased the sense of insecurity for Israel as it may lead to a genuine peace process. It
also appears that US will have to re-orientate 34 her policy vis-à-vis Israel-Palestinian conflict.
Possible Scenarios Emerging as the Result of Uprising
Utopian Scenario. The outline of such a scenario reads equitable economic development taking
place in the Arab world, watering down the appeal of militancy and extremism. Democracy seems to be
taking roots and bringing dividends such as human rights, good governance and prosperity.
Reconciliation of the differences between Islam and the West and within the Arab world takes place.
Resolution of conflicts within the Arab world and with Israel through peaceful means seems a possibility.
The Best Case Scenario. Democracy prevails but remains dysfunctional in many respects.
Gradually moves on to improve like in Pakistan. The outcome seems to become conceptual battleground
between competing extremists and modernists’ agendas. Constitutionalism takes roots. Greater freedom
resulting in promotion of domestic and foreign polices as per aspirations of the people. Economy and
governance improves. Oil prices remain within reasonable limits. Image of Islamic world in the West
gradually improves.
The Worst Case Scenario. Tribalism, sectarianism and extremism neutralize non-violent
roadmap to reforms. Instability acquiring a degree of permanency. Civil war starts. Externalization of
internal conflict like in Libya and Afghanistan. Maps are redrawn. Armed Group reign and take on
established armies. War between KSA and Iran ensues. Oil Prices sour & economies taking nosedive.
Humanitarian catastrophe and refugees culture appear
The Most Likely Scenario – A Mixed Situation. The situation is still fluid and evolving in the
Middle East and North African region. At present, a mix of all the scenarios could be predicted. Oil rich
countries (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Libya) blessed with natural resources could
be converted into vibrant economies subject to institution of true democratic and economic reforms,
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 60 June 2013