OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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PART – 1 Global / Regional Issues ‣ South and Central Asia ‣ Al Qaeda and the Muslim World ‣ Coercive Statecraft ‣ Rising India - A Critical Appraisal ‣ Rising Powers and Global Balance of Power ‣ Arab Uprising – A Critical Appraisal OPINION Vol.1 No.1 June 2013
Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA The regions of South and Central Asia share a rich historical legacy, that stretches back several millennia to at least 1500 BC, and have interacted over centuries until it was interrupted by the competition for dominance over the area between the British and Russian Empires. In the world of interdependency, the need for cooperation between South Asia and Central Asia is reinforced by the common challenges faced by the two regions. These challenges are threat of terrorism and extremism, narco-trade, economic development, rising demand of energy in South Asia and need for diversification of trade and energy export of Central Asia. Working together, the two regions stand a better chance to meet these challenges. However, good neighbourly relations between Pakistan and India, and peace and stability in Afghanistan are pivotal to building linkages between South and Central Asia. Aim To identify the prospective areas of cooperation between South and Central Asia, focusing on economy, energy and security, with a view to bringing out opportunities and challenges for Pakistan. Scope The paper will encompass following major aspects:- • Geo-strategic Perspective and Inter-regional Cooperation • Economic and Energy Cooperation • Regional Peace and Security • Role of External Players and Organizations • Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan • Recommendations GEO-STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE AND INTER-REGIONAL COOPERATION Rudyard Kipling is reported to have observed in 1901 that the “fate of the great game in Central Asia would be won by the country that succeeded in building the largest network of railroads”. In the contemporary version of this great game, pipelines appear to have replaced the railway network in strategic significance. 1 Geo-Strategic Perspective The South and Central Asian region has a combined land area of nearly nine million square kilometers. Besides lying at the fulcrum of Asia, region also derives its strategic significance from the fact that it borders two of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – China and Russia. South Asia comprises eight countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The region is home to around one-fourth of the world population and has an area of five million square kilometers. Its geo-strategic salience is supported by proximity to resource rich Persian Gulf, Central Asia and rising China, control over important sea routes in Indian Ocean, access to warm waters of Arabian Sea for Central Asia, emerging economies of the region and large consumer market and current security dynamics in Afghanistan. Central Asia consists of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The region has an area of four million square kilometers. The economic significance of region has added to its geo-strategic importance. The salient aspects are; huge oil and gas reserves in the region, transportation hub for gas and oil pipelines and communication corridors, especially connecting China and Russia and located at the crossroads between Asia and Europe. Inter-Regional Cooperation In this world of increasing interdependence under the tide of globalization, no country is in a position to achieve the goal of economic development without cooperation from other countries. South Asia is experiencing a demographic boom. South Asian countries receive bulk of their oil imports travelling over sea routes. From a pragmatic perspective, natural resources of Central Asian Republics (CARs) present next-door sources of energy for South Asian countries. Similarly, the land-locked countries of Central Asia would benefit greatly from accessing Arabian Sea ports. From the security perspective, both the regions face host of challenges to include security situation in Afghanistan, terrorism, border security and flow of opiates. The nature of these threats is trans-national and certainly warrants an integrated response. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 1 June 2013
Page 1 and 2: O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
Page 3 and 4: MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
Page 5: TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
Page 9 and 10: Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
Page 11 and 12: post-Arab Spring transition in the
Page 13 and 14: Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
Page 15 and 16: Infrastructural Development It
Page 17 and 18: Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
Page 19 and 20: Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
Page 21 and 22: of peace negotiations, saying that
Page 23 and 24: Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
Page 25 and 26: Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
Page 27 and 28: Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
Page 29 and 30: COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
Page 31 and 32: US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
Page 33 and 34: Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
Page 35 and 36: • Determine the punishment regime
Page 37 and 38: other states, or produce counter na
Page 39 and 40: Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
Page 41 and 42: protecting Indian investments overs
Page 43 and 44: India’s Military. Indian military
Page 45 and 46: India has neither been able to prod
Page 47 and 48: In an idealistic scenario, where In
Page 49 and 50: Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
Page 51 and 52: come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53 and 54: In the face of the growing importan
Page 55 and 56: Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
Page 57 and 58:
power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60:
Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
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Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
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the region of Northwest Africa, wes
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Transparency International report f
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leading to the best case scenario.
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Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
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PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
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the establishment of the Bretton Wo
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Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
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years and yet an air of distrust st
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can cause capital flight, which is
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Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
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Conclusion of other hostile element
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58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
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Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
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Tranche 1: began transition in July
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PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
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Indian and Chinese involvement in d
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influence and eastern and southern
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scenario would have grave implicati
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In present day Asia, three big demo
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Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
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The increase in glacial melting may
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Demography. Unplanned expansion of
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Legislate to ensure energy efficien
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26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
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INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
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During the conflict, leaders/offici
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Pakistan, India, without any formal
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or the establishment of stability a
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Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
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The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
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Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
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American Operational Art - WW II O
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war began. By early 1951, the fight
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• Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
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WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
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35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
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are not necessarily new. The four e
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Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
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• Terrorists now have transnation
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hierarchical organizations. Technol
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Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
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PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
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Commission for Human Security, co c
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3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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