OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

SWOT Analysis, Trends and Drivers
The spectrum of Pakistan’s political, economic, and social and security domains are full of
vulnerabilities, insecurities, strengths and hopes. The SWOT analysis is as under:-
Strengths
Abundant natural resources, hydro power
potential, low cost human resource,
Pakistani Diaspora, resilient society, geostrategic
location and relevance and
military and nuclear deterrence.
Weaknesses
Poor economy, internal security instability due to
terrorism, extremism, ethnicity and sectarianism,
absence of HRD, high population growth rate,
absence of strategic leadership, poor governance,
social injustice and corruption, political
expediencies, absence of National Security Policy
framework and image deficit.
Opportunities
Relevance in the contemporary
international environment.
Potential to exploit regional, global
energy/ trade links.
Exploration of untapped natural
resources.
Continuation of democratic process.
Post 2014 Afghanistan.
Diversification of geo-economic/ geopolitical
relations with emerging power
centres.
Threats
Economic instability, population explosion and raw
youth bulge, Violent Non State Actors, absence of
national cohesion, political expediency at the cost of
national interests, social injustice, spill-over effects
of instability in Afghanistan, kinetic and non-kinetic
threats from India, presence of ERF in the region,
ecological changes and geographic fault lines.
Major international trends along with key drivers acting as catalyst for change are:
Mega and Domestic Trends
Shift from geo-politics to geoeconomics.
Globalization.
Rise of Asia as economic centre of
gravity.
Anti Americanism.
Trade ties with India.
Consensus on Afghan led and owned
peace process.
Media activism.
Susceptibility to violation of sovereignty.
Religious and sectarian militancy.
Drivers-Catalysts of Change
Economy. States’ international status is being
ascertained through its economic prowess.
Security/Transnational Terrorism. World’s
unanimity against terrorism and those sponsoring it,
invites a global response. Current environment and
terrorism threshold in Pakistan puts it in the eye of
the storm at international level.
Quest for Energy and Natural Resources.
Powerful countries continue to access new sources
of energy and natural resources to keep their
economic engines running.
Scenarios. Four scenarios based on critical drivers; i.e., economy and security are visualised as under:-
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 48 June 2013