OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

contemporary dictates compelled other countries to either totally side with the USA or give their silent
willingness on major world issues.
Conclusions from Historical Perspective
Striking conclusions of the post cold war power balance are as under:-
Preamble
The end of the Cold War and the ongoing integration of economies as a consequence of
globalization raise some questions, among others, is the question as to the validity of balance of
power concept in today’s world.
Concept of Balance of Power has also transformed from linear threats to non traditional and non
linear ones. The rise of non state actors is one such phenomenon.
Post cold war era reintroduces the phenomena of colonization with changed face of chaining the
third world through economic, trade and technology transfer policies under the umbrella of IMF,
World Bank, various technological regimes and UN.
Traditional concept of sovereignty of states has transformed.
MYTHS AND REALITIES OF RISING POWERS
Power shifts generate strategic responses by the established powers with a view to ensue
protraction of the already established powers. The present world order is experiencing subtle changes.
With the rise of BRICS, Turkey, South Korea, Australia etc, there is a greater talk of new powers rising
and likely to dominate the world scene in the future. This, however, needs a more critical review. With a
wider perception of US decline as the worlds’ only super power, there is a sense that the 21 st century will
belong to Asia. Notwithstanding, the popular perceptions about US decline, she still dominates the world.
Some pertinent terms are explained below to understand the myths and realities about rising powers.
Definitions
Rising Power. Rising power is a ‘national power’ having certain ingredients to threaten the status
quo of global settings. Pedelford and Lincoln have described it as: “Strength composed of
economic, psychological, moral, military and political elements, successfully directed to the
furtherance of national interests, constitute rising national power”. Rising power operates in
international field in this sense. However, it should be noted that the concept of rising power is
Relative, Conditional and Situational.
Relativity of Rising Power. It is relative in that it has no absolute dimension. Power is rated by
the effect it can bring about. For instance, India is stronger than Brazil but at the same time weaker
than China in terms of economic might.
Conditional. Rising power is conditional in that it depends on variety of factors, the exact role of
which is difficult to assess. States ‘A’ and ‘B’ may have equal resources, military strength etc yet
they may differ in effective power. A strong sentiment of Nationalism, for instance, in State ‘A’
may inspire popular support to government action and policies and may prepare the people for
greater sacrifices. If any such sentiment is totally absent in State ‘B’ and the nation is torn by
intense internal dissentions, this may make it weaker vis-à-vis ‘A’ despite its equal or even
superior resources and military preparedness. India and Brazil are cases in point.
Situational. Rising power is situational in the sense that it depends on specific international
situation. Despite unchanged condition of resources and military might of both, the power equation
between States A and B may change because of changed international situation. Development of
friendly relations between America and India and the formation of an unwritten alliance between
US, India and Israel have affected China and Pakistan equation with her neighbours.
Shift in Global Balance of Power - A Myth or Reality
The question is whether American power is about to see an absolute decline or comparative
decline. Whatever shape it assumes, global shift of power to Asia would invariably accompany new
contours, challenges and opportunities. Without wishing to predict the future, and instead taking the
current situation as a starting point, the international system is characterized by three general tendencies; a
new international order which is both uni and multi-polar at the same time, rise of Asia (China) which will
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 44 June 2013