OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Job generation, education, health, services like roads, electricity, water supply, etc, have
conspicuously lagged behind.
Social change has not kept pace with technological advancement.
India has a conflict-prone society. Communalism, caste difference, rich and poor divide are
major source of social strife and violence.
Given the raw deal to minorities, backward sections of the society and the rural poor, a sense
of deprivation has set in a process of alienation reflected in insurgencies.
Nonetheless, world is so completely enamoured of India’s “growth story” that it seems willing
to ignore the simple fact that India is home to the largest population of the poor, hungry and
malnourished in any country on the planet.
Revisiting the Fundamental Criterion. After browsing different dimensions of Indian power potentials,
here is a re-visit to the six criterion questions discussed at the start of the paper.
In material context, “is there an increase in Indian capabilities in either relative or absolute sense” –
Answer is Yes, however, not enough.
In historical context, “is India more powerful than the past” – Answer is Not exactly, as India has
not yet proven her credentials outside India.
In diplomatic context, “is India more engaged in the world than previously”Answer is partially
Yes, however, India continues to discriminate her immediate neighbours.
In competing context, “how do other states view India having a larger role in the world than in the
past” Not exactly as mere US strategic partnership will not fetch India, the status of becoming
a lead rule maker in the world.
In domestic context, “does the state increasingly affect the lives of ordinary people”Answer is No.
In terms of measures of power, “what are the net capabilities in terms of power projection, control
over territory, alliance construction, share of world material capabilities, and the collective will to
assume the role of a great power)” India’s growing power does not seem reason enough to count
her among the ‘great powers,’ as long as its vast majority of people are forced to live a life of
misery, deprivation and social discrimination.
Implications of India attaining a Great Power Status for Pakistan
Growing Indian international / regional influence will reduce leverage for Pakistan especially in the
realm of both conflict management and resolution.
In an idealist scenario, Indian quest to gain great power status may motivate her to pacify Pakistan’s
concern on bilateral issues, however, in a realistic scenario India is not likely to leave any space
which can be exploited by Pakistan.
In case India is unable to mend fences with China, then clash of interests of two giants will seriously
affect Pakistan’s stability situation.
Growing political clout inside Afghanistan especially Post 2014, will be detrimental to Pakistan’s
interests in the region.
Increased Indian military capability will accentuate both conventional and strategic asymmetry; it
may also affect our strategic capability of ‘Credible Minimum Nuclear Deterrence’.
Indian presence in Indian Ocean close to our EEZ / territorial water will present a continuous threat
to our SLOCs as well as the coastal belt.
Enlarging threat paradigm would put added pressure on national exchequer to maintain the large
standing armed forces.
Indian new found status will be equally damaging to Pakistan defence acquisition especially from
the Western bloc.
India is likely to exploit Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities and will induce internal instability to
force continued commitment of armed forces in sub-conventional warfare.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 40 June 2013