OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

03.01.2015 Views

However, it remains to be seen, whether India can redistribute the fruits of its economic growth to the wider society across the board. Macroeconomic Indicators. India has been one of the world’s best-performing economies since late 1990s, claiming to recover millions out of poverty. According to World Bank, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India was worth 1.847 Trillion US dollars in 2011-12. Historically, from 1960 until 2012, India GDP averaged 368.8 Billion USD 15 . Sheer rise in reserves from one billion USD in 1991 to around 300 billion is a great indicator of the immense Indian economic potential. India accounts for 1.3 percent of world merchandise trade and ranks 21 st among leading exporting countries in the world. Among leading importers, India is ranked 14 and accounts for 2 percent of total global imports. India is ranked second after China in A.T.Kearney FDI Confidence Index 2012 16 . UNCTAD’s World Investment Prospects Survey 2010-12 ranks India as second most favored investment destination (behind China). Symbols of India's new found wealth and power abound. In 2012, 55 Indians were included in Forbes' list of the world's billionaires, up from 23 in 2006. Indian firms have been going global; in 2006, Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal purchased the French company Arcelor, creating the world's largest mining and steel firm; in 2008, the Indian conglomerate Tata purchased the iconic British Jaguar and Land Rover brands from Ford. India has spent $514 billion in infrastructure development during the 11 th Five Year Developmental Plan (2007-2012) and planning to invest approx one trillion USD in current 12 th Five Year Developmental Plan (2012 - 2017) 17 . India is the leading country for offshore outsourcing. The offshore outsourcing industry started in India and it has been able to capture more than half the world offshore outsourcing industry. 18 One of the most dynamic contributors to the country’s economic growth has been the information technology sector, employing 1.8 million workers directly with spin-off effect to other sectors like bio-pharmacy, healthcare and finance. English: Language of Success. India is ranked second after USA with over 100 million population having expertise in speaking English 19 . This factor has greatly facilitated the entrance of Indian companies into position of global market leadership, thereby accelerating India’s transition to a position of global economic leadership. Demographic Dividend. India’s biggest asset is its people. At a time when the industrialized world is aging rapidly, India has the advantage of a young population. It is expected that, in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37 for China and 48 for Japan. However, a young population is an asset only if it is educated, skilled and finds productive employment. India’s demographic transition is presently well underway, and, unlike in China, the age structure of the population here is likely to evolve favourably over the next two to three decades 20 . Excellence in Higher Education Standards. India has devoted a large proportion of its education resources to higher education, particularly in science and technology. There are 380 universities and 1,500 research institutes; from which 200,000 engineers, 300,000 technicians and 9,000 PhDs graduate every year 21 . Indian government is planning to create 800-1000 new universities in next one decade in collaboration with International Universities 22 . Central government spending on the social sector, including health care and education, has risen from 13.4 percent of the total budget in 2007 to 18.5 percent in 2012. Indian Diaspora. The Indian Diaspora is strong and spread across all continents and most countries of the world. It is a great potential tool for attracting investment, accelerating industrial development and boosting international trade and tourism effort for India. Only in US, Indian Diaspora today stands over 3 million. While the 2012 presidential election drew less than 1 million voters from the community; Indian-Americans are becoming very visible in the political scene 23 . Such an influential Indian Diaspora also provides strong guarantee for developing a long term Indo-US strategic partnership. Similarly, a large number of influential politicians, businessmen, professional and think tanks are pursuing a supporting agenda for India in major power centres across the world. Soft Power. India's soft power has now been on display for many decades: Indian philosophy has captivated Western minds since the 1960s; Bollywood's impressive celluloid fare has long drawn huge audiences in Asia, Africa, and beyond. 24 Indian government’s efforts over the last decade have further helped promote a new and modern image of India abroad. Simultaneously many aspects of Indian culture like music, food, style and religions have become fashionable in many parts of the world. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 36 June 2013

India’s Military. Indian military is in the process of modernization and creating force structures that are capable of undertaking network-centric warfare on land, at sea, and in the air. Gradually, but perceptibly, the Indians are upgrading their capabilities, enhancing their kinetic effectiveness and command and control, and improving interoperability. Indian army is preparing to join the navy and the air force in launching intervention operations in India’s area of strategic interest. 25 Indian ambitious Maritime Capabilities Perspective Plan seeks to dominate the Indian Ocean region by acquiring blue and brown water operational capability 26 while effectively countering current and emerging threats closer to the coastline. Besides, India’s traditional strategic sphere lay between the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Malacca; but with Indian’s global footprint expanding, the Indian Air Force is preparing to be ready to serve wherever the country’s future strategic interests lie. Indian claim to a world-power status has been greatly facilitated by acquiring nuclear capability having de facto approval of the West. Analysis of Indian Status as a Rising Power Despite a spectacular growth story, since 2011, India’s growth started slackening. Its national deficit is growing, and inflation is rising after having fallen between early 2010 and early 2012. Indian plans to build a more inclusive nation are in disarray. Income inequality has risen besides accentuating social inequities amongst various segments of society. Access to basic services, such as water, health care, and sanitation, remains woefully inadequate. Meanwhile, the country’s democracy putters along, but in the absence of a dynamic leadership, policymaking has come to a halt, few term it as a policy paralysis. That is the reason that Rising India preposition seems to have gone from a near-sure thing to, a 50-50 bet 27 . Interestingly, there are more skeptics in India than abroad, about the myth of India’s leap forward to development. Some of them have reservations about the mode of change while others dispute the projected outcome of reforms. Quite a few critics, in particular left-leaning analysts, are prone to seeing India’s passage to development as an overblown success story 28 . Indian predicament and fault lines posing obstacle to the global status of India are discussed in succeeding lines. Political Front Plight of Coalition Government. Getting the liberalized reforms’ agenda through the political elite remains a bigger challenge than to craft and implement them. As Mr Manmohan Singh said in March 2012, “The difficult decisions we have to make, are made even more difficult because we are a coalition government.” That means, he continued, that “we have to formulate policy with the need to maintain consensus” 29 which otherwise remains a daunting challenge in the purview of respective vested interests. Lack of Federal Approach on Foreign Policy 30 Interesting fact remains that people in the Indian states don’t care about global issues while Foreign policy is reckoned as headache for the center alone. Tamil Nadu looks to Far East and especially to Sri Lanka; and cares about the global technology revolution. Mumbai watches and weighs on the Straits of Hormuz and piracy off the west coast of Africa. Gujrat cares about Middle East oil, and joins Jammu and Kashmir in a persistent focus on Pakistan. Relations with Immediate Neighbours. “India is a big county with a small heart” 31 . India has always been suspicious of most of its neighbours, like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan, for helping powers inimical to India and for aiding insurgencies with in India. It should be interesting to note that farther East in the region, India has started actualizing the benefits of her ‘Look East’ policy in the shape of closer relations with ASEAN countries. Farther West, India is investing and engaging pro-actively with CARs in order to become a relevant player in ‘New Great Game’, but has not been able to do so in its immediate neighbourhood in true Chankyan tradition. India’s inability to come to terms with neighbours is likely to impede her ambitions in the long run. Economic Front Recent growth especially in 2011/12 is not only poor but also one of the lowest in the last 9 years 32 . This phenomenon has resulted due to serious deficiencies in terms of infrastructure shortages, large fiscal deficit, high inflation, restrictive labour regulations, poorly reformed financial sector and overall energy shortages. Indian currency has devalued by 20.7% since last one year while Indian Rupee exchange rate against USD declined from INR 35 to 58 33 , and the trend continues. Tax to GDP ratio stood at 11.7%, OPINION Vol.1 No.1 37 June 2013

However, it remains to be seen, whether India can redistribute the fruits of its economic growth to<br />

the wider society across the board.<br />

Macroeconomic Indicators. India has been one of the world’s best-performing economies since<br />

late 1990s, claiming to recover millions out of poverty. According to World Bank, Gross Domestic<br />

Product (GDP) in India was worth 1.847 Trillion US dollars in 2011-12. Historically, from 1960<br />

until 2012, India GDP averaged 368.8 Billion USD 15 . Sheer rise in reserves from one billion USD in<br />

1991 to around 300 billion is a great indicator of the immense Indian economic potential. India<br />

accounts for 1.3 percent of world merchandise trade and ranks 21 st among leading exporting<br />

countries in the world. Among leading importers, India is ranked 14 and accounts for 2 percent of<br />

total global imports. India is ranked second after China in A.T.Kearney FDI Confidence Index<br />

2012 16 . UNCTAD’s World Investment Prospects Survey 2010-12 ranks India as second most<br />

favored investment destination (behind China). Symbols of India's new found wealth and power<br />

abound. In 2012, 55 Indians were included in Forbes' list of the world's billionaires, up from 23 in<br />

2006. Indian firms have been going global; in 2006, Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal purchased<br />

the French company Arcelor, creating the world's largest mining and steel firm; in 2008, the Indian<br />

conglomerate Tata purchased the iconic British Jaguar and Land Rover brands from Ford. India has<br />

spent $514 billion in infrastructure development during the 11 th Five Year Developmental Plan<br />

(2007-2012) and planning to invest approx one trillion USD in current 12 th Five Year<br />

Developmental Plan (2012 - 2017) 17 . India is the leading country for offshore outsourcing. The<br />

offshore outsourcing industry started in India and it has been able to capture more than half the<br />

world offshore outsourcing industry. 18 One of the most dynamic contributors to the country’s<br />

economic growth has been the information technology sector, employing 1.8 million workers<br />

directly with spin-off effect to other sectors like bio-pharmacy, healthcare and finance.<br />

English: Language of Success. India is ranked second after USA with over 100 million population<br />

having expertise in speaking English 19 . This factor has greatly facilitated the entrance of Indian<br />

companies into position of global market leadership, thereby accelerating India’s transition to a<br />

position of global economic leadership.<br />

Demographic Dividend. India’s biggest asset is its people. At a time when the industrialized<br />

world is aging rapidly, India has the advantage of a young population. It is expected that, in 2020,<br />

the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37 for China and 48 for Japan. However,<br />

a young population is an asset only if it is educated, skilled and finds productive employment.<br />

India’s demographic transition is presently well underway, and, unlike in China, the age structure of<br />

the population here is likely to evolve favourably over the next two to three decades 20 .<br />

Excellence in Higher Education Standards. India has devoted a large proportion of its education<br />

resources to higher education, particularly in science and technology. There are 380 universities and<br />

1,500 research institutes; from which 200,000 engineers, 300,000 technicians and 9,000 PhDs<br />

graduate every year 21 . Indian government is planning to create 800-1000 new universities in next<br />

one decade in collaboration with International Universities 22 . Central government spending on the<br />

social sector, including health care and education, has risen from 13.4 percent of the total budget in<br />

2007 to 18.5 percent in 2012.<br />

Indian Diaspora. The Indian Diaspora is strong and spread across all continents and most countries<br />

of the world. It is a great potential tool for attracting investment, accelerating industrial development<br />

and boosting international trade and tourism effort for India. Only in US, Indian Diaspora today<br />

stands over 3 million. While the 2012 presidential election drew less than 1 million voters from the<br />

community; Indian-Americans are becoming very visible in the political scene 23 . Such an influential<br />

Indian Diaspora also provides strong guarantee for developing a long term Indo-US strategic<br />

partnership. Similarly, a large number of influential politicians, businessmen, professional and think<br />

tanks are pursuing a supporting agenda for India in major power centres across the world.<br />

Soft Power. India's soft power has now been on display for many decades: Indian philosophy has<br />

captivated Western minds since the 1960s; Bollywood's impressive celluloid fare has long drawn<br />

huge audiences in Asia, Africa, and beyond. 24 Indian government’s efforts over the last decade have<br />

further helped promote a new and modern image of India abroad. Simultaneously many aspects of<br />

Indian culture like music, food, style and religions have become fashionable in many parts of the<br />

world.<br />

<strong>OPINION</strong> <strong>Vol.1</strong> <strong>No.1</strong> 36 <strong>June</strong> <strong>2013</strong>

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