OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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assistance to improve the technical capabilities of border control force, counterterrorism police, military and intelligence services. Chocking Domestic Fault Lines. All states with Al Qaeda and domestic affiliate organizations must address their fault lines in short to medium term with the cooperation of international community to reduce the space of co-opting for Al Qaeda. Addressing Financial Support. The concerned institutions and banking system must be synergized with international support to monitor and choke flow of money to Al Qaeda and its affiliates generated from transnational organized crimes besides addressing narco trade, human trafficking / smuggling, money laundering (hawala/ hundi), terrorist financing and cybercrimes. Real Time Intelligence Sharing. Intelligence sharing mechanism between the allies should be improved to execute proactive counter actions. Pakistan Specific Political Will and National Consensus. Political will with consensual national support should be mustered for Whole of the Nation approach against Al Qaeda and its affiliates, to ensure their defeat and deny re-emergence. Deny Space to Al Qaeda. A proactive media campaign should be launched to inculcate sense of responsibility and educate the populace on the necessity and importance of their cooperation in the drive against common enemy-Al Qaeda and its affiliates. FATA and PATA should be brought into main stream, besides providing job opportunities to the locals through ROZs in order to deny space to Al Qaeda and its affiliates. Sealing of International Border. Pakistan should seal its porous border with Afghanistan to check the cross border movement of Al Qaeda and its affiliates, weapons, drugs and inflow of illegal money. Strict Adherence of Disassociation Policy with Religious Militant Organizations. Existing policy of disassociation with no patronage to the religious organizations with militant agendas should be strictly adhered and monitored. Overhaul of Intelligence Agencies. The intelligence agencies need to modernize their system of intelligence collection, analysis, investigations and interrogations. Besides improving intra-agency efficiency, the efficacy of all domestic intelligence agencies should be improved by inter-agency integration and incorporation of International Agencies. De-weaponization. A de-weaponization policy should be carefully crafted and implemented keeping in view the local security and cultural environment while remaining above political allegiance. De-radicalization. Proactive de-radicalization campaign must be moved with following strands:- Harnessing the madrassas through registration, standardization of syllabus and teaching staff as per madrassa reforms. Excessive debates on religious issues commonly exploited by Al Qaeda and its affiliates. Energize Islamic education industry by incorporating higher education facilities and later offering employment opportunities utilizing existing infrastructure in the long term. Rehabilitation and Reintegration. The slow process of rehabilitation and reintegration should be pursued rigorously to reduce burden on military and evade re-emergence of Al Qaeda and its affiliates. Media Policy. Although a tall order, however, a Media Policy which safeguards the national interests should be formulated and implemented to avoid further damage to national opinion building. Improvement of Law Enforcement Agencies. Capacity of LEAs specially police and paramilitary forces should be increased substantially in order to de-induct Armed Forces and reduce psychological effect on the nation in the war against Al Qaeda and its affiliates. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 20 June 2013
Deportation / Repatriation of Illegal Immigrants and Refugees. Strict implementation of already existing mechanism with regard to illegal immigrants and refugees living in Pakistan be ensured. Moreover, determined efforts need to be made by National Aliens Registration Authority (NARA) to register all foreigners who are still unaccounted for. Integrated border management system (IBMS) shall be employed on all entry / exit immigration check posts to regulate international passengers. Capability Enhancement of National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA). There is a dire need to enhance the capability of NACTA, where systematic research and analysis could be carried out on all aspects related to terrorism with the mandate to advise LEAs through GoP with due input of think tanks. Breaking the Linkage. With all these recommendations, addressing strengths and exploiting weaknesses of Al Qaeda the overarching and predominant recommendation is to hit their co-opting ability by breaking their linkage with local affiliate militant organizations. Conclusion The panel has tried its level best to cover the threat of Al Qaeda and its affiliates, being the most predominant concern of the world today to the security of future generations. However, the vast and complex nature of subject still leaves many stones unturned and it gives lead to many more research questions. Al Qaeda and its affiliates though on the run needs to be completely eliminated otherwise it will re-emerge from its ashes. Researchers: Supervisor: Endnotes DIG Zafar, Lt Col Shakir,Lt Col Moeed and Lt Col Ibrahim (KSA) Cdre Zain Zulfiqar 1 Rohan Gunaratna, Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror, C. Hurst & Co, UK, 2002. 2 Sayeed Abdul Al Maududi, Jihad in Islam, Islamic Publications (Pvt), Lahore, P – 6, 7 and 22. 3 Beyond Al Qaeda; The Global Jihadist Movement, RAND Project Air Force. 4 “Harmony Papers Data Base.”Available at http://ctc.usma.edu. 5 RohanGunaratna & Aviv Oreg,Al Qaeda's Organizational Structure and its Evolution, Journal: Studies in Conflict &TerrorismVolume 33, Issue 12, November 2010, pages 1043-1078. 6 "Compilation of Usama Bin Ladin Statements 1994 - January 2004," FBIS Report, Feb. 9, 2004. 7 www.globaljihad.net. 8 Al Qaeda’s Voice of Jihad, www.memri.org. 9 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda. 10 Sasha Gordon, Abyani Tribes and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, July 25, 2012, http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/gordonabyani-tribes-and-Al Qaeda-arabian-peninsula-july-25-2012 11 More Al Qaeda pre-US election attacks forecast, 3 October 2012, http://glblgeopolitics.wordpress.com/tag/abdelmalek-droukdel/ 12 Al Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/gspc.htm 13 Syed Saleem Shahzad, Inside Al Qaeda and the Taliban, (London, Pluto Press, 2011). 14 Ibid. 15 Ryan Mauro Bio, Al Qaeda, Islamists Seek Sharia State in Syria, 26 July 2012, www.frontpagemag.com/2012/ryan-mauro/Al Qaeda-islamistsseek-sharia-state-in-syria/2/ 16 Abdullah F. Ansary, Combating Extremism: A Brief Overview of Saudi Arabia’s Approach. 17 Terrorism Heaven: Indonesia, http://www.cfr.org/indonesia/terrorism-havens-indonesia/p9361. 18 Rohan Gunaratna, Ideology in Terrorism and Counter Terrorism: Lessons from combating Al Qaeda and Al Jemaah Al Islamiyah in Southeast Asia.` 19 On Anniversary of bin Laden’s Death, Little Backing of al Qaeda, 30 Apr 2012, Report by Pew Research Centre, http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/04/30/on-anniversary-of-bin-ladens-death-little-backing-of-Al Qaeda/src=prc-headline 20 Public Opinion in the Islamic World on Terrorism, Al Qaeda and US Policies, 25 Feb 2009, World Public Opinion.org. 21 Osman Mirghani, Who Benefits from Al Qaeda, 4 Nov 2010, http://www.asharq-e.com/news.aspsection=2&id=22916 22 Danios, Most victims of Islamic terrorism are Muslims, www.loonwatch.com/2012/06/most-victims-of-islamic-terrorism-are-muslims-and-whyamerica-is-to-blame-for-it/ 23 A.S.M. Ali Ashraf Transnational Cooperation on Anti-Terrorism: A Comparative Case Study of Saudi Arabia And Indonesia Summer-Autumn 2007 http://www.sam.gov.tr/perceptions/volume%20xii/Transnational.pdf Accessed on 15 October 2012 24 Abdullah F. Ansary, Combating Extremism: A Brief Overview of Saudi Arabia’s Approach MIDDLE EAST POLICY, VOL. XV, NO. 2, SUMMER 2008 http://www.mepc.org/journal_vol15/96Ansary.pdf Accessed on 15 October 2012 25 Christopher Boucek, Saudi Arabia’s “Soft” Counterterrorism Strategy: Prevention, Rehabilitation, and Aftercare. Carnegie PAPERS. September 2008. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/cp97_boucek_saudi_final.pdf. Accessed on October 20, 2012 26 Ibid. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 21 June 2013
Page 1 and 2: O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
Page 3 and 4: MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
Page 7 and 8: Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
Page 9 and 10: Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
Page 11 and 12: post-Arab Spring transition in the
Page 13 and 14: Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
Page 15 and 16: Infrastructural Development It
Page 17 and 18: Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
Page 19 and 20: Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
Page 21 and 22: of peace negotiations, saying that
Page 23 and 24: Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
Page 25: Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
Page 29 and 30: COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
Page 31 and 32: US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
Page 33 and 34: Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
Page 35 and 36: • Determine the punishment regime
Page 37 and 38: other states, or produce counter na
Page 39 and 40: Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
Page 41 and 42: protecting Indian investments overs
Page 43 and 44: India’s Military. Indian military
Page 45 and 46: India has neither been able to prod
Page 47 and 48: In an idealistic scenario, where In
Page 49 and 50: Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
Page 51 and 52: come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53 and 54: In the face of the growing importan
Page 55 and 56: Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
Page 57 and 58: power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60: Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
Page 61 and 62: Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
Page 63 and 64: the region of Northwest Africa, wes
Page 65 and 66: Transparency International report f
Page 67 and 68: leading to the best case scenario.
Page 69 and 70: Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
Page 71 and 72: PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
Page 73 and 74: the establishment of the Bretton Wo
Page 75 and 76: Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
Page 77 and 78:
years and yet an air of distrust st
Page 79 and 80:
can cause capital flight, which is
Page 81 and 82:
Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
Page 83 and 84:
Conclusion of other hostile element
Page 85 and 86:
58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
Page 87 and 88:
Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
Page 89 and 90:
Tranche 1: began transition in July
Page 91 and 92:
PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
Page 93 and 94:
Indian and Chinese involvement in d
Page 95 and 96:
influence and eastern and southern
Page 97 and 98:
scenario would have grave implicati
Page 99 and 100:
In present day Asia, three big demo
Page 101 and 102:
Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
Page 103 and 104:
The increase in glacial melting may
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Demography. Unplanned expansion of
Page 107 and 108:
Legislate to ensure energy efficien
Page 109 and 110:
26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
Page 111 and 112:
INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
Page 113 and 114:
During the conflict, leaders/offici
Page 115 and 116:
Pakistan, India, without any formal
Page 117 and 118:
or the establishment of stability a
Page 119 and 120:
Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
Page 121 and 122:
The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
Page 123 and 124:
Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
Page 125 and 126:
American Operational Art - WW II O
Page 127 and 128:
war began. By early 1951, the fight
Page 129 and 130:
• Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
Page 131 and 132:
WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
Page 133 and 134:
35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
Page 135 and 136:
are not necessarily new. The four e
Page 137 and 138:
Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
Page 139 and 140:
• Terrorists now have transnation
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hierarchical organizations. Technol
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Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
Page 145 and 146:
PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
Page 147 and 148:
Commission for Human Security, co c
Page 149:
3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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