OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda. Although all important catches of Al Qaeda were done by
Pakistan but could not read the actual proactive strategy of Al Qaeda, which started from active cells
in urban populace, shift to FATA, consolidation in FATA through commoner militant leadership,
extending affiliation with indigenous militant organizations, expansion to remaining country, and
truce through indigenous militant organizations peace deals 32 .
Drawing Lines between Al Qaeda and Indigenous Militant Organizations. Pakistan could not
recognize the actual face of militant organizations, which turned their loyalties towards Al Qaeda
after 9/11, and still trusted them from time to time.
Energizing Political Will. Pakistan has still been unable to synergize political will against Al
Qaeda and its affiliate militant organizations. All political leaders are not yet on one page in
abhorring terrorism.
Perception Management. Pakistani leadership has been unable to shape the perception of the
stakeholders against Al Qaeda and its affiliates, to incorporate them in the overall counterstrategy.
Inability of Civil Government to Rehabilitate the Affected Areas. Civil government is unable to
take over the areas cleared by Army and rehabilitate them in mainstream.
Addressing the Root Cause. Though out of the purview of Pakistan at international level, we have
not been able to address the root cause of terrorism at least in Pakistan.
Al Qaeda’s Future after US Drawdown from Afghanistan in 2014.
made on present indicators Al Qaeda’s future appears to be as follows:
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Global
According to projections
Hard core Al Qaeda leaders and members are likely to fall back to Afghanistan being more
secure base for them
Pakistani affiliated militant organizations may also transit to Afghanistan, in case of more
pressure from Pakistan LEAs, but will increase the pace of their operations in Pakistan
After Taliban’s due share in Afghan Government Al Qaeda will try to fillip to the notion
of Pan-Islamism and replicate it in Pakistan through their affiliate religious militant
organizations and sympathizer religious political parties
Al Qaeda will try to keep its ideology alive through proxies, compromising at different
places on different issues with its affiliates
Al Qaeda’s international literate ideologue will try to gain expertise in cyber warfare
which will be more effective in continuing their war against the West
Attack the Ideology. Ideology of Al Qaeda is embedded in local history and culture developed by
states. Nation-specific narrative to spearhead the effort of attacking the ideology with religious
scholars on the same page.
Countering Al Qaeda and Affiliates through Multi-Pronged Approach. A mix of hard and soft
approach along with international cooperation with the predominance of non-kinetic soft approach
should be followed to accrue long-lasting dividends.
Sincerity of Purpose without Double Standards. Trust deficit amongst allies fighting Al Qaeda
and affiliates need to be removed and pursuance of divergent agendas in the fight against terrorism
must be avoided to be able to make some real progress against the combined enemy.
Reduction of Discrimination and Sense of Deprivation Amongst Muslims. To reduce
discrimination and sense of deprivation amongst Muslims the core issues of US and West influence
on Muslim world should be reduced besides resolution of Palestine and Kashmir issues through
international community.
Strengthen the Capabilities of Frontline States to Confront Al Qaeda and Affiliates. West, led
by the US, must help friendly countries achieve their counterterrorism objectives by providing
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 19 June 2013