OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

03.01.2015 Views

Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Strategy against Al Qaeda and its Affiliates. The political developments with regards to Pakistan’s counterinsurgency efforts can broadly be divided into two phases as under:- President Musharraf’s Era. Strategic framework during the previous regime was, “All elements of national power particularly political, socio-economic and military be effectively articulated within national and international context to eliminate the menace of terrorism”. Post 2008 Elections Period. Newly elected government came up with National Counter Terrorism Policy in the shape of 3Ds, i.e. Dialogue, Deterrence and Development. In support of this strategy, the Army’s employment was based on four distinct stages of Clear, Hold, Build and Transfer. Within this purview, the Army devised its ‘Concept of Engagement’, cardinal aspects of which are:- Military means must be politically driven backed by popular support Convergence of military and political components Conduct effect based operations using minimum essential force to achieve well-defined objectives Reduce own and exploit terrorists’ vulnerabilities Enhance faith in cause and keep morale in focus Operational Framework. Pakistan’s counter actions can be divided into various stages:- Beginning (2001 – 2003) Capturing many senior Al Qaeda operatives Operation Al Mizan, in ‘No Go Areas’ of Khyber and Kurram Agencies Al Qaeda infiltration in southern and northern agencies of FATA Fighting and Talking (2003 – 2009) Kinetic operations and peace deals Peace deals provided breathing space to Al Qaeda and its affiliated religious militant organizations Debated as unsuccessful period Confronting the Devil (2009 Onwards) Termed as a watershed year in Pakistan Army’s efforts against Al Qaeda and its affiliates Strategy for the “clearance” phase of the concept i.e.: “depopulate, clear and repopulate” Army seems to be struck in holding phase due to slow pace of political prong Great success as evident from the shrinking areas under control of Al Qaeda and its affiliates Short Falls in Addressing Al Qaeda and its Affiliates. The efforts made by the Pakistani Government to control Al Qaeda’s terrorist threat have produced some concrete results. However, some missing links are as under: Consensus Building. Primary shortfall of Pakistan strategy was that besides taking decision to cooperate in GWOT, it could not build the correct perception through consensus about the menace of terrorism. Harnessing FATA. Pakistan could not harness FATA through its tribal culture before al Qaeda dissected it and brought substantial change in it by empowering the commoner militant young leadership 31 . Capacity to Tackle the Militant Outflow due to US Invasion of Afghanistan. Pakistan could not assess its own capability of tackling Al Qaeda/militants outflow from Afghanistan after US invasion, which led to creation of safe haven for active and sleeping cells of Al Qaeda. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 18 June 2013

Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda. Although all important catches of Al Qaeda were done by Pakistan but could not read the actual proactive strategy of Al Qaeda, which started from active cells in urban populace, shift to FATA, consolidation in FATA through commoner militant leadership, extending affiliation with indigenous militant organizations, expansion to remaining country, and truce through indigenous militant organizations peace deals 32 . Drawing Lines between Al Qaeda and Indigenous Militant Organizations. Pakistan could not recognize the actual face of militant organizations, which turned their loyalties towards Al Qaeda after 9/11, and still trusted them from time to time. Energizing Political Will. Pakistan has still been unable to synergize political will against Al Qaeda and its affiliate militant organizations. All political leaders are not yet on one page in abhorring terrorism. Perception Management. Pakistani leadership has been unable to shape the perception of the stakeholders against Al Qaeda and its affiliates, to incorporate them in the overall counterstrategy. Inability of Civil Government to Rehabilitate the Affected Areas. Civil government is unable to take over the areas cleared by Army and rehabilitate them in mainstream. Addressing the Root Cause. Though out of the purview of Pakistan at international level, we have not been able to address the root cause of terrorism at least in Pakistan. Al Qaeda’s Future after US Drawdown from Afghanistan in 2014. made on present indicators Al Qaeda’s future appears to be as follows: RECOMMENDATIONS Global According to projections Hard core Al Qaeda leaders and members are likely to fall back to Afghanistan being more secure base for them Pakistani affiliated militant organizations may also transit to Afghanistan, in case of more pressure from Pakistan LEAs, but will increase the pace of their operations in Pakistan After Taliban’s due share in Afghan Government Al Qaeda will try to fillip to the notion of Pan-Islamism and replicate it in Pakistan through their affiliate religious militant organizations and sympathizer religious political parties Al Qaeda will try to keep its ideology alive through proxies, compromising at different places on different issues with its affiliates Al Qaeda’s international literate ideologue will try to gain expertise in cyber warfare which will be more effective in continuing their war against the West Attack the Ideology. Ideology of Al Qaeda is embedded in local history and culture developed by states. Nation-specific narrative to spearhead the effort of attacking the ideology with religious scholars on the same page. Countering Al Qaeda and Affiliates through Multi-Pronged Approach. A mix of hard and soft approach along with international cooperation with the predominance of non-kinetic soft approach should be followed to accrue long-lasting dividends. Sincerity of Purpose without Double Standards. Trust deficit amongst allies fighting Al Qaeda and affiliates need to be removed and pursuance of divergent agendas in the fight against terrorism must be avoided to be able to make some real progress against the combined enemy. Reduction of Discrimination and Sense of Deprivation Amongst Muslims. To reduce discrimination and sense of deprivation amongst Muslims the core issues of US and West influence on Muslim world should be reduced besides resolution of Palestine and Kashmir issues through international community. Strengthen the Capabilities of Frontline States to Confront Al Qaeda and Affiliates. West, led by the US, must help friendly countries achieve their counterterrorism objectives by providing OPINION Vol.1 No.1 19 June 2013

Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Strategy against Al Qaeda and its Affiliates. The political<br />

developments with regards to Pakistan’s counterinsurgency efforts can broadly be divided into two phases<br />

as under:-<br />

President Musharraf’s Era. Strategic framework during the previous regime was, “All elements<br />

of national power particularly political, socio-economic and military be effectively articulated<br />

within national and international context to eliminate the menace of terrorism”.<br />

Post 2008 Elections Period. Newly elected government came up with <strong>National</strong> Counter Terrorism<br />

Policy in the shape of 3Ds, i.e. Dialogue, Deterrence and Development. In support of this strategy,<br />

the Army’s employment was based on four distinct stages of Clear, Hold, Build and Transfer.<br />

Within this purview, the Army devised its ‘Concept of Engagement’, cardinal aspects of which are:-<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Military means must be politically driven backed by popular support<br />

Convergence of military and political components<br />

Conduct effect based operations using minimum essential force to achieve well-defined<br />

objectives<br />

Reduce own and exploit terrorists’ vulnerabilities<br />

Enhance faith in cause and keep morale in focus<br />

Operational Framework. Pakistan’s counter actions can be divided into various stages:-<br />

Beginning (2001 – 2003)<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Capturing many senior Al Qaeda operatives<br />

Operation Al Mizan, in ‘No Go Areas’ of Khyber and Kurram Agencies<br />

Al Qaeda infiltration in southern and northern agencies of FATA<br />

Fighting and Talking (2003 – 2009)<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Kinetic operations and peace deals<br />

Peace deals provided breathing space to Al Qaeda and its affiliated religious militant<br />

organizations<br />

Debated as unsuccessful period<br />

Confronting the Devil (2009 Onwards)<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Termed as a watershed year in Pakistan Army’s efforts against Al Qaeda and its affiliates<br />

Strategy for the “clearance” phase of the concept i.e.: “depopulate, clear and repopulate”<br />

Army seems to be struck in holding phase due to slow pace of political prong<br />

Great success as evident from the shrinking areas under control of Al Qaeda and its<br />

affiliates<br />

Short Falls in Addressing Al Qaeda and its Affiliates. The efforts made by the Pakistani<br />

Government to control Al Qaeda’s terrorist threat have produced some concrete results. However, some<br />

missing links are as under:<br />

Consensus Building. Primary shortfall of Pakistan strategy was that besides taking decision to<br />

cooperate in GWOT, it could not build the correct perception through consensus about the menace of<br />

terrorism.<br />

Harnessing FATA. Pakistan could not harness FATA through its tribal culture before al Qaeda<br />

dissected it and brought substantial change in it by empowering the commoner militant young<br />

leadership 31 .<br />

Capacity to Tackle the Militant Outflow due to US Invasion of Afghanistan. Pakistan could not<br />

assess its own capability of tackling Al Qaeda/militants outflow from Afghanistan after US invasion,<br />

which led to creation of safe haven for active and sleeping cells of Al Qaeda.<br />

<strong>OPINION</strong> <strong>Vol.1</strong> <strong>No.1</strong> 18 <strong>June</strong> <strong>2013</strong>

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