OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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Editorial Board Patron Major General Javed Iqbal HI(M) Chief Editor Cdre Muhammad Shafique TI(M) Editor Brig Azhar Iqbal Abbasi Assistant Editors Gp Capt Waqas Sulehri, PAF Capt Abdul Raqeeb, PN Lt Col Muhammad Shahbaz Khan Dr Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema Dr Syed Bashir Hussain Dr Tahir Masood Dr Ishtiaq Ahmed Chaudhry Dr Zulfiqar Khan Chaudhry Dr Muhammad Khan Advisory Board Dean Faculty of Contemporary Studies, NDU Islamabad Head of the Department Government & Public Policy FCS, NDU Islamabad Head of the Department Leadership & Management Studies FCS, NDU Islamabad Head of the Department Peace & Conflict Studies FCS, NDU Islamabad Head of the Department Strategic & Nuclear Studies FCS, NDU Islamabad Head of the Department International Relations FCS, NDU Islamabad AFWC Journal (OPINION) is sponsored and edited by the Armed Forces War College (AFWC), National Defence University Islamabad, Pakistan. Manuscripts and editorial communications may be directed to: Chief Editor, OPINION Armed Forces War College National Defence University Sector E-9, Islamabad Pakistan http://www.ndu.edu.pk Statement, facts and opinions mentioned in AFWC Journal are solely of the authors and do not imply the official policy of the Institution, Editors or Publishers. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 June 2013
MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of knowledge and maturity of thought is a hard earned end-state of one’s professional and personal undertakings. The real benefit of such an endstate is accrued at the rung of policy and strategy formulation. Pakistan’s challenges have become very complex and diverse; necessitating continuous reflection and analysis. During the year long intellectual and professional pursuits at Armed Forces War College (AFWC), members engage in an unparalleled activity of researching on host of issues including global and regional affairs, internal dynamics and defence and security. These studies are presented in the shape of seminars, military history presentations, strategic thoughts and theories, evolutionary process of modern day strategy and operational art, which provide frames of reference for the future leaders. I am extremely happy to see that research work and quality efforts of the faculty and participants of NSWC 2012-2013 is now being documented for the first time in the form of an e- Journal of AFWC (OPINION). The aim is to benefit a larger group of researchers and scholars, further improve the standard of research and consequently enhance the knowledge base of the future leadership of Pakistan. I congratulate all participants of NSWC 2012-13, the faculty and the editorial board for a job well done. Also my special thanks to ISSRA and FCS for being forthcoming through their quality inputs and in making OPINION a more valuable production. And I am grateful to President NDU for providing an enabling environment for meaningful intellectual pursuits. Major General Javed Iqbal HI(M) Commandant, Armed Forces War College NDU, Islamabad OPINION Vol.1 No.1 June 2013
Page 1: O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
Page 7 and 8: Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
Page 9 and 10: Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
Page 11 and 12: post-Arab Spring transition in the
Page 13 and 14: Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
Page 15 and 16: Infrastructural Development It
Page 17 and 18: Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
Page 19 and 20: Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
Page 21 and 22: of peace negotiations, saying that
Page 23 and 24: Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
Page 25 and 26: Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
Page 27 and 28: Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
Page 29 and 30: COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
Page 31 and 32: US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
Page 33 and 34: Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
Page 35 and 36: • Determine the punishment regime
Page 37 and 38: other states, or produce counter na
Page 39 and 40: Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
Page 41 and 42: protecting Indian investments overs
Page 43 and 44: India’s Military. Indian military
Page 45 and 46: India has neither been able to prod
Page 47 and 48: In an idealistic scenario, where In
Page 49 and 50: Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
Page 51 and 52: come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53 and 54:
In the face of the growing importan
Page 55 and 56:
Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
Page 57 and 58:
power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60:
Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
Page 61 and 62:
Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
Page 63 and 64:
the region of Northwest Africa, wes
Page 65 and 66:
Transparency International report f
Page 67 and 68:
leading to the best case scenario.
Page 69 and 70:
Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
Page 71 and 72:
PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
Page 73 and 74:
the establishment of the Bretton Wo
Page 75 and 76:
Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
Page 77 and 78:
years and yet an air of distrust st
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can cause capital flight, which is
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Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
Page 83 and 84:
Conclusion of other hostile element
Page 85 and 86:
58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
Page 87 and 88:
Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
Page 89 and 90:
Tranche 1: began transition in July
Page 91 and 92:
PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
Page 93 and 94:
Indian and Chinese involvement in d
Page 95 and 96:
influence and eastern and southern
Page 97 and 98:
scenario would have grave implicati
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In present day Asia, three big demo
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Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
Page 103 and 104:
The increase in glacial melting may
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Demography. Unplanned expansion of
Page 107 and 108:
Legislate to ensure energy efficien
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26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
Page 111 and 112:
INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
Page 113 and 114:
During the conflict, leaders/offici
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Pakistan, India, without any formal
Page 117 and 118:
or the establishment of stability a
Page 119 and 120:
Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
Page 121 and 122:
The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
Page 123 and 124:
Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
Page 125 and 126:
American Operational Art - WW II O
Page 127 and 128:
war began. By early 1951, the fight
Page 129 and 130:
• Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
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WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
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35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
Page 135 and 136:
are not necessarily new. The four e
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Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
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• Terrorists now have transnation
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hierarchical organizations. Technol
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Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
Page 145 and 146:
PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
Page 147 and 148:
Commission for Human Security, co c
Page 149:
3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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