OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University
OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University
OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University
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hierarchical organizations. Technology will help in integration of these groups besides improving<br />
upon their operational fusion.<br />
Open source warriors represent the most dangerous trend and their financing by rival opportunistic<br />
states might make them even more lethal.<br />
Control over WMD technologies will remain a cherished dream for future warriors. Narratives will<br />
thus become more important than weapons for changing loyalties within the states.<br />
Increased awareness on part of nation states coupled with promulgation of laws and better<br />
implementation measures in tackling with fourth generation warriors might result in morphing of<br />
future warriors into societies like Hamas and Hezbollah besides reducing their liberty of action.<br />
The future warriors are also likely to adopt non-hierarchical network structures with no rigid<br />
organization, working on the concept nizam, la tanzim (system, not organization). This phrase<br />
actually encapsulates character of future war. Failure of LTTE in Sri Lanka while overly depending<br />
on development of 2nd / 3rd generational structure is a lesson which will guide the path of future<br />
insurgent organizations.<br />
Even though nation states seem to be in retreat but it is also visible that they have reconciled with<br />
the changing environment. We now today are living in an era of shared sovereignty in which all<br />
kinds of non-state actors whether violent or non-violent are asserting to share state’s powers. Trend<br />
suggests developing of regional instead of global alliances.<br />
RECOMMENDATIONS<br />
Developing International Environment and Implications on Nation States<br />
In the light of waning US influence, economic problems of Euro zone and emerging centers of a<br />
multi-polar world, a world with G – zero needs to be foreseen. As a result, many regional powers might<br />
emerge and world as a consequence might turn out to be a more chaotic place with many more wars.<br />
Fighting wars through proxies armed with better weapons and tactics coupled with traditional wars is thus<br />
considered possible. Future armies will thus have to be ready to fight both traditional and non-traditional<br />
wars within a theatre at one time. This might call for a better adaptive army conversant in both forms of the<br />
war with almost equal prowess.<br />
Recommendations at <strong>National</strong> Level<br />
Clear Strategic Direction to Prevent and Fight the Future Wars. Effective governance with<br />
responsive state administration and management systems including strategic intelligence capability<br />
remains central in deterring the future conflicts through statecraft. Needless to say a clear strategic<br />
direction manifested through strategic framework of Deterrence, Development and Dialogue<br />
should be followed as cornerstone policy to prevent the conflict in the first place.<br />
Political Ownership of the Conflict. Political government has to take over ownership of the<br />
conflicts as these cannot be managed without adopting a whole of the nation approach. Creating<br />
trinity of people, government and armed forces will remain critical in fighting future conflicts and<br />
is not possible without ownership of the political government.<br />
Creating Enabling Environment for Developing Fully Empowered Societies. Under<br />
developed feudal – tribal societies with poor socio – economic conditions and weak state controls<br />
remain prone to future insurgent wars. Only the empowered societies which are adequately<br />
educated can effectively challenge the narrative of future warriors. Devolution of governmental<br />
powers to people no longer remains an option but has become a necessity.<br />
Revamping Legal Systems to Fight 4 th Generation Wars. Terrorism uses freedom and openness<br />
provided by a free society, against it. The only answer lies in the effective and vibrant<br />
constitutional reforms especially in laws of evidence and managing witness protection programmes<br />
etc. besides enacting and implementing cybercrime laws and laws for effective management of<br />
media.<br />
Inter – Agency Cooperation. Extremism cannot be eliminated through local action against<br />
extremist pockets; the requirement is to address the root causes. If ‘will’ or ‘attitudes’ of the people<br />
is to be transformed then actions and reactions of the all elements of national power will have to be<br />
<strong>OPINION</strong> <strong>Vol.1</strong> <strong>No.1</strong> 135 <strong>June</strong> <strong>2013</strong>