OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

• Non-state actors will not be the main repository of hybrid challenges as under pressure,
states can also shift conventional units to fight irregularly 31 .
• Future warriors will aim at controlling escalation by generating irrational responses.
• In future conflicts, bridging of physical and societal terrains through use of information
technology will allow states and non-state actors to use all possible methods to destabilize
an existing order.
Hybrid Wars in Recent History. Hezbollah can be termed as the first model of hybrid force
(2006 Lebanon War) against Israeli Defence Force. It proved to be disciplined, professionally
trained, and able to operate in distributed cells throughout all types of terrain.
Emerging Global Trends. It will now be correct to look at emerging global trends to decide on
the reasons and context in which future wars will be fought:-
• Perhaps the most dangerous trend is the growing unilateralism in international affairs to
impose their kind of order by coalition of willing.
• Advancement of Globalization and Technology, have inadvertently provided the means to
export terror and extremism around the world 32 .
• In addition to radicalism, looming population trends warn of a growing instability in several
less-developed countries due to demand – supply mismatch 33 .
• Safe havens in nation-states will provide sanctuaries thus further complicating the issues
besides increasing problems for weaker nation states.
• Competition over resources coupled with climate change and natural disasters is also
fuelling the potential for conflict.
• Proliferation or increased access to all forms of WMD might result into sanctioning preemptive
or even preventive military operations.
• Violent extremist groups and their ideology also present a global challenge 34 .
• Weak and failing states also threaten global security 35 .
Conclusions from the Study
Nature of war essentially remains constant, while character of warfare is evolving towards more
synergy thus resulting into more dispersion and lethality.
Changes in generations of warfare are overlapping as each developed over the conflicts that
preceded it and as a result of changes in society rather than technology alone.
Clausewitzian trinity still remains applicable as any violence without a political cause is simple
criminality. The more lethal mistake is in treating all ongoing sub-conventional conflicts as
fundamental extremism or only terrorism thus resulting into a vortex of senseless violence bordering
on madness.
Conflict remains part of the human nature. Even though tug of war will continue over control of
scarce resources, probability of conventional state on state conflict except in complete asymmetric
conditions remains low.
Proxies will remain rational choice in immediate future and will be either sponsored by states for
political reasons or will be waged by independent non-state actors for both political and apolitical
reasons. Media and IGOs would be used to legalize these proxies under the garb of R2P by coalition
of the willing for extracting economic or political concessions.
Future wars are likely to be primarily Hybrid or Sub conventional wars with transnational character
and as people become objects, employment of militaries in political conflicts will always remain
questionable, at least initially.
Increasing technological gap between west and rest of the world will force future warriors who will
be super empowered individuals to transform into loosely knit small groups not following any rigid
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 134 June 2013