OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

will also pick up motion. Though Gwadar port will enhance its operational capacity, true potential
will not be actualized without opening of trade routes for CARs.
Scenario – 2 (Most Desired). Better peace and stability in Afghanistan will give impetus to the
inter-regional cooperation in trade and energy cooperation. With infrastructural development
completed, most of the constraints and security threats largely mitigated, the trade volume may go as
high as 100%. The TAPI project, besides CASA-1000, will materialize. By virtue of Gwadar port
running at full capacity, Pakistan will serve as the main trading route for CARs.
Scenario - 3 (Most Dangerous). Despite improved infrastructural development in Pakistan and
Central Asia, the inter-regional cooperation and all projects will be stalemated by the worsening
security situation in Afghanistan. Iranian routes will pick up more trade traffic from Central Asia.
Rider Clauses
• US, though with reduced combat role, will continue staying in Afghanistan.
• China will become a leading investor and foreign stakeholder in Afghanistan.
• Pak-Russia relations continue to improve.
• Core issues between Pakistan and India remain unresolved; however, trade improves gradually
with a cautious Pakistani undertone. Indian involvement in Balochistan etc is largely dropped.
Peace and Security
RECOMMENDATIONS
With the Chinese and Russian support, under the banner of SCO, Pakistan should mobilize efforts to
achieve reconciliation in Afghanistan.
Pakistan should engage more proactively with all Afghan factions.
In Indo-Pak context, Pakistan should increase her leverage over India by providing trade / energy transit
as it may afford an opportunity to narrow the trust deficit and help advancing towards resolution of
chronic disputes.
Mechanism should be found for sharing intelligence among countries and developing a regional
approach to deal with the militant organization.
Countries of both the regions should enter into bilateral / multilateral treaties on extradition and also
formulate a joint investigation mechanism.
Effective border management is required to increase the costs for criminal activity, smuggling and
narco-trade.
Capitalizing on the long term US interests in the region, Pakistan should seek active US involvement in
achieving inter-regional cooperation.
Pakistan should continue pursuing membership of SCO.
Economic and Energy Cooperation
To ensure trade facilitation, it is required to harmonize tariffs and customs, improve coordination
between border enforcement agencies, increase port capacity at borders, institute legal and regulatory
system and relaxation in visa restrictions.
CARs may be engaged for extension of APTTA to Central Asia.
More effective use should be made of the existing Task Forces on Regional Energy and Electricity
Cooperation.
Joint industrial ventures may be initiated with CARs, especially Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
With governmental encouragement, Pakistani entrepreneurs can set up industrial units in CARs.
Increase the participation of private sector in trade / business.
Bilateral cooperation should be enhanced in services, education and culture.
Enlarged mandate of SCO may be exploited for achieving greater inter-regional cooperation.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 8 June 2013