OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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path to diversify her energy sources in view of rising dynamics of Indian Ocean. It is broadening relations with Afghanistan and also investing heavily there which will gradually increase her stakes / leverage. Role of Regional Organizations Challenges Regional Organizations. Countries of South and Central Asia are part of regional organizations such as SAARC, ECO and SCO. However, the level of cooperation is below potential. Since regional peace and prosperity is affected by Afghan situation, a regional effort is necessary to play a proactive role in Afghanistan. Sincere efforts are needed by SAARC members to vitalize the organization and also implement SAFTA through fast-track measures for effective inter-regional cooperation. The main challenge for ECO Member States is to build a collective will and cooperate on the basis of mutuality of benefits. SCO, with all main players within its fold, wields maximum influence in the region as an organization. Implications on Inter-Regional Cooperation. A further analysis of the interests of various players, both individually as well as through existing organizations, highlights certain diverse interests with regards to cooperation between South and Central Asia. The prominent ones are:- • US favours a better cooperation between the two regions. Her long term presence in Afghanistan will increase her influence on the regional dynamics. • Russia wants to retain her erstwhile control over energy resources of Central Asia; nevertheless, visualizing the inevitability of southwards opening of CARs, has decided to be part of it. Yet, predominantly it remains Central Asia oriented. • China probably views the economic development of both the regions as complementary to her own objectives. • Indian investments in Iranian infrastructure do not go along with the envisioned cooperation between South and Central Asia. Iran, a member / observer of all organizations, appears to have differing aspirations with regards to cooperation between South and Central Asia. • All the regional organizations aim to improve cooperation between the member states, however, with respect to fomenting integration between South and Central Asia, SAARC and SCO could drive the cause better collectively. However, in view of the past successes, SCO has the biggest potential to bring to realization the integration between two regions. Views of influential players about ECO relegate its place in this context. While agreeing to the idea that all these organizations could function in their own right, the member states need to find out a mechanism to put the things on right track. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR PAKISTAN Afghan Crisis. The major challenge is worsening security situation in Afghanistan. Being the direct and largest affectee of Afghan situation, Pakistan faces a serious challenge on the western borders. Indo- Pak Rivalry. Indo-Pak rivalry is another stumbling block in not only integrating South and Central Asia but more seriously within South Asia. Its various dimensions with respect to the subject under discussion could be:- • Negative competition in Central Asian markets will be detrimental to both. • Any race in Afghanistan will run tangent to the peace efforts. • Without genuine implementation of SAFTA, real progress towards integrating both the regions will be difficult. • Indian meddling in Balochistan with repercussions on providing CARs access to Gwadar port. • Agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan on the margins of NAM summit in Tehran in August 2012 to promote an ambitious trilateral economic partnership. 38 External Factors. Few challenges posed by the interests of external players are:- • Indo-US collaboration, including nuclear deal, and anti-China strategy. • US long term stay in Afghanistan due to resultant implications on Pak-US relations and internal stability. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 6 June 2013
Opportunities • Russian aspirations to retain her influence over CARs. • Though Pak-Russia relations are improving, these are still far from friendly. • Possible competition with Iran (Gwadar vs Chabahar). • A viable mechanism to achieve inter-regional cooperation. Additional Challenges. Few other challenges are:- • Evaluation of trade terms with India – implications of granting MFN status. • Existing constraints to economic and energy cooperation in the fields of physical, institutional and policy measures. • Development of communication infrastructure linking Gwadar. • Regional approach to address the problem of militant organizations. • Border security issues. Regional Context. In the regional context, major opportunities are:- • Using the SCO’s platform, a proactive regional role can be mustered for peace and stability in Afghanistan. • Pakistan provides the shortest routes from Central Asia to the sea ports coupled with an enhanced cargo capacity at Gwadar. • Pakistan’s membership and association of all regional organizations lends us a unique position to facilitate inter-regional cooperation. • Being member of SAARC and ECO, Pakistan could facilitate the extension of ECO's Transit Transport Framework Agreement to South Asia. • CASA-1000 and TAPI can create a track-record to enhance inter-regional cooperation. • APTTA can be extended to all CARs. • Transport corridor of Almaty-Karachi road has the potential to attract the attention of CARs. • The already agreed Pak-Afghan-Tajik route can become a trade corridor. • Inter-regional trade will generate lot of transit revenues. Bilateral Context. Following are the major opportunities for Pakistan:- • Indian growing energy demands have strengthened Pakistan’s prospect of serving as a trade and energy corridor. Indo-Pak cooperation in trade and energy sector can facilitate both countries in terms of socio-economic development and promotion of peace and stability in the region. • There is vast scope for economic cooperation between Central Asia and Pakistan. Pakistan can import various natural resources and, in return, can offer assistance in the areas of banking, textiles, footwear, sports, hydropower, construction, agricultural products, hotel industry and pharmaceuticals. • We can offer services of NADRA, other education and training facilities. • Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan offer more opportunities for joint industrial ventures. • Pakistan’s expertise in defence equipment offers another opportunity. • Central Asia presents lot of avenues for the role of private sector. Possible Scenarios. Given various internal and external drivers, few scenarios which could emerge in the context of inter-regional cooperation in 10 – 15 years timeframe are:- Scenario – 1 (Most Likely). ‘No war and no peace’ like situation persists in Afghanistan. The efforts to effect inter-regional cooperation will bear partial results. CASA-1000 is likely to materialize, while TAPI remains in doldrums; trade may increase by 20 – 30% from the current level. The Iranian route will fetch better trading activity for CARs. However, the Almaty – Karachi route OPINION Vol.1 No.1 7 June 2013
Page 1 and 2: O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
Page 3 and 4: MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
Page 7 and 8: Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
Page 9 and 10: Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
Page 11: post-Arab Spring transition in the
Page 15 and 16: Infrastructural Development It
Page 17 and 18: Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
Page 19 and 20: Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
Page 21 and 22: of peace negotiations, saying that
Page 23 and 24: Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
Page 25 and 26: Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
Page 27 and 28: Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
Page 29 and 30: COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
Page 31 and 32: US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
Page 33 and 34: Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
Page 35 and 36: • Determine the punishment regime
Page 37 and 38: other states, or produce counter na
Page 39 and 40: Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
Page 41 and 42: protecting Indian investments overs
Page 43 and 44: India’s Military. Indian military
Page 45 and 46: India has neither been able to prod
Page 47 and 48: In an idealistic scenario, where In
Page 49 and 50: Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
Page 51 and 52: come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53 and 54: In the face of the growing importan
Page 55 and 56: Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
Page 57 and 58: power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60: Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
Page 61 and 62: Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
Page 63 and 64:
the region of Northwest Africa, wes
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Transparency International report f
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leading to the best case scenario.
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Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
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PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
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the establishment of the Bretton Wo
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Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
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years and yet an air of distrust st
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can cause capital flight, which is
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Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
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Conclusion of other hostile element
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58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
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Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
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Tranche 1: began transition in July
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PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
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Indian and Chinese involvement in d
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influence and eastern and southern
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scenario would have grave implicati
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In present day Asia, three big demo
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Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
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The increase in glacial melting may
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Demography. Unplanned expansion of
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Legislate to ensure energy efficien
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26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
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INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
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During the conflict, leaders/offici
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Pakistan, India, without any formal
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or the establishment of stability a
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Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
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The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
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Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
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American Operational Art - WW II O
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war began. By early 1951, the fight
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• Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
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WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
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35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
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are not necessarily new. The four e
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Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
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• Terrorists now have transnation
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hierarchical organizations. Technol
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Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
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PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
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Commission for Human Security, co c
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3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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