OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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ecologically sensitive species 31 as well as increased risk of occurrence of severe cyclones and storm surges 32 . Lastly, the change in the ocean climate patterns has caused rise in the cyclonic storm activity in the Arabian Sea 33 , having devastating impact on the coastal areas of Sind and Balochistan. Key Strategic Factors in Demography and Climate Change of Pakistan Urbanization. Urbanization is a common factor from both demography and Climate Change perspective, prime reasons are:- Demography. There are not enough agri-related jobs in rural areas to employ the swelling population. Urban areas offer better opportunities to educated youth with a comparatively easy going life which is free of agriculture related inherent risks. Climate Change. The frequency of natural calamities greatly increases risk of agro output. Diminishing water resource will add to the difficulties of agriculture as a profession. Conclusion. Regardless of the causes, urbanization is likely to continue, so much so that by 2030, 50% of the Pakistani population is expected to be urbanized, putting more pressure particularly on the megacities. However, in the absence of economic growth, these mega cities in turn will parent a host of other administrative nightmares, making the urban population extremely vulnerable to exploitation and casting a direct shadow on national security, including engagement of Armed forces and Law Enforcing Agencies into internal security situations. Water and Food Security. The confluence of demography and Climate Change affects food and water security of future generations in a big way. Demography. Increasing population requires greater number of people to be fed, putting more stress on available agri-land. Domestic water consumption for urban and rural population is likely to increase. Growing population would need more housing space, occupying vital agriculture utility space and even water. Climate Change. The water related calamities of last three monsoon seasons destroyed crops over a large area and affected around 20 million people mostly from rural areas. The loss in agriculture sector alone was estimated more than US$ 3 billion, while the accumulative losses were around 10 billion US $, wiping out 0.5% of GDP and deeply affecting growth. Conclusion. The mutually complementing effects of demography and Climate Change on food and water security will be enormous, directly impacting our national security, in the form of inter provincial friction on the sharing of resources. Energy Security. Energy sector in Pakistan is under increasing stress, the effects of demography and Climate Change on energy sector include:- Demography. Energy consumption is expected to rise to 129 million TOEs by 2030. Major reasons included improving life-styles, inherent to developing economies, which requires more energy; increasing population, which is a major contributor to increased energy needs; and per capita energy consumption in urban areas (upto 80% more than rural areas), which is going to put more demand on scarce energy resources. Climate Change. From the Climate Change perspective, energy security will be affected due to extreme oscillation in water flow pattern in the rivers that will grossly undermine reliability of hydro-power generation; global criticism on thermal power particularly coal based generation; and non-availability of natural gas in requisite quantum (preferred being least on Green House Gases emissions). The cost of energy production will therefore become prohibitive. Conclusion. The conflicting exigencies of demography and Climate Change put the energy sector in a binary stretch like situation. Resultantly, energy security in the future will come under threat. The obvious fallouts will have direct bearing on the socio-economic development and security needs of the country. Disaster Management. Since recent past Pakistan is faced with enormous impact of natural calamities / disasters, climate change and demography have a close interplay in the magnitude of the disasters: OPINION Vol.1 No.1 98 June 2013
Demography. Unplanned expansion of towns and cities close to river banks has increased their risk to disasters. More affected population also means that relief and rehabilitation efforts would need more resources at national level. Climate Change. The effect is only accentuated by expected increase in frequency and magnitude of natural calamities as a result of Climate Change. Conclusions. The frequency and scale of natural disasters could force employment of armed forces in rehabilitation efforts for sustained durations. The heightened vulnerabilities to disaster risks demand more resources for relief and rehabilitation. The diversion of funds from other heads has obvious fallout on socio-economic development of the country. Such adjustments also have fallouts on the resources for Armed Forces developmental and R&D capacity. Pakistan’s Population Youth bulge and Human Resource Development The increasing population with a noticeable component of youth bulge suffers from lack of education and inadequate health facilities. Today our next generation stands on weak footing to deal with the challenges of an evolving competitive environment across the globe. This leaves them with very few opportunities to choose livelihood and employment. The growing frustration among the youth is likely to make them vulnerable to prejudice and polarization which can lead to extremism. Hence a failure to engage youth and convert their energies into a dynamic force may result in very grave consequences for the country. Climate Change and GoP Response The Government has proactively acted to address the risks of the climate change. Recently, Pakistan Climate Change Policy has been approved by the Cabinet. The policy is quite elaborate and chalks out explicit tasks and responsibilities for mitigation and adaption measures to coup with the impact of Climate Change. Furthermore, the lack of awareness, resource and technological constraints with respect to mitigation and adaptation techniques would continue to pose challenge to the country. Therefore, the country which is the least contributor and worst affected by the CC needs to plead its case with adroit wisdom to gain benefits from the international protocols of CC. The Ministry of Human Resource Development has been established this year (2012), the policy guide available so far is the Vision 2030 Policy Document issued in 2007, however, implementation process has been marred due to lack of resources. Fallouts of demography and Climate Change if not addressed and managed, will have a direct bearing on the national interests which include, Eradicating Extremism, Socio Economic Development, Energy And Water Security, Internal Stability And Education. The consequence will therefore, put strain on economy and good governance, affecting all other facets of national security of the country. Recommendations After analyzing both the issues, it is concluded that Demography and Climate Change are interrelated issues and their impacts on the society are reinforcing and has a direct impact on National Security. In response domain, demographic management needs a pro-active response due to fact that we are already in a precarious situation whereas in the context of Climate Change, the two approaches of adaptation and mitigation are required. The response framework is based on the vision of revitalization of existing resources, and synergizing their actions by applying systematic corrections through interfacing under a futuristic framework for accruing benefits of the potentials and opportunities. The focus is first to address the immediate concerns, create a stable situation and then venture for mid to long term futuristic recommendations flowing out of the same stability. Composite proposals are being given for both issues. Short Term Recommendations Nomination of a Lead Agency. Importance of a lead agency for steering any national policy cannot be over-emphasized. As population and environment aspects have been devolved to the provinces with the passage of 18th amendment, a vacuum has been created at national policy level. The newly created HRD Ministry should be mandated as the lead agency for management of entire HR in the country. It should be supplemented by planning commission for policy level coordination. Existing organizations like NAVTEC and provincial level TEVTAs should be guided by the same ministry to develop HR as per the skill demands of the country. Institutional Capacity Building. As Provinces have not yet been able to form local governments thus they lack capacity to handle fallouts of demography and Climate Change. There is a need to OPINION Vol.1 No.1 99 June 2013
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O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
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MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
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Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
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Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
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post-Arab Spring transition in the
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Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
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Infrastructural Development It
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Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
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Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
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of peace negotiations, saying that
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Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
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Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
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Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
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COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
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US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
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Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
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• Determine the punishment regime
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other states, or produce counter na
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Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
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protecting Indian investments overs
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India’s Military. Indian military
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India has neither been able to prod
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In an idealistic scenario, where In
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Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
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come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53 and 54: In the face of the growing importan
Page 55 and 56: Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
Page 57 and 58: power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60: Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
Page 61 and 62: Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
Page 63 and 64: the region of Northwest Africa, wes
Page 65 and 66: Transparency International report f
Page 67 and 68: leading to the best case scenario.
Page 69 and 70: Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
Page 71 and 72: PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
Page 73 and 74: the establishment of the Bretton Wo
Page 75 and 76: Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
Page 77 and 78: years and yet an air of distrust st
Page 79 and 80: can cause capital flight, which is
Page 81 and 82: Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
Page 83 and 84: Conclusion of other hostile element
Page 85 and 86: 58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
Page 87 and 88: Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
Page 89 and 90: Tranche 1: began transition in July
Page 91 and 92: PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
Page 93 and 94: Indian and Chinese involvement in d
Page 95 and 96: influence and eastern and southern
Page 97 and 98: scenario would have grave implicati
Page 99 and 100: In present day Asia, three big demo
Page 101 and 102: Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
Page 103: The increase in glacial melting may
Page 107 and 108: Legislate to ensure energy efficien
Page 109 and 110: 26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
Page 111 and 112: INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
Page 113 and 114: During the conflict, leaders/offici
Page 115 and 116: Pakistan, India, without any formal
Page 117 and 118: or the establishment of stability a
Page 119 and 120: Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
Page 121 and 122: The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
Page 123 and 124: Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
Page 125 and 126: American Operational Art - WW II O
Page 127 and 128: war began. By early 1951, the fight
Page 129 and 130: • Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
Page 131 and 132: WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
Page 133 and 134: 35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
Page 135 and 136: are not necessarily new. The four e
Page 137 and 138: Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
Page 139 and 140: • Terrorists now have transnation
Page 141 and 142: hierarchical organizations. Technol
Page 143 and 144: Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
Page 145 and 146: PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
Page 147 and 148: Commission for Human Security, co c
Page 149: 3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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