OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

The increase in glacial melting may however help, though only temporarily.
Reduction in storage capacity of the existing water reservoirs.
Food Security. Agriculture, livestock, fisheries and forestry (AFLL) sector is the backbone of
Pakistan’s economy contributing to the 22% to the country’s GDP, 57% to export earnings, and
providing livelihood to almost 68% population of the country 21 . Major effect in each of these
sector include:-
Crop Sector. The Corp sector will experience decreases in crop production and quality due to:-
Change in both duration and timings of cropping season. Winter seasons will be shortened,
while summer cropping seasons will become unpredictable.
Heat stress at sensitive growth stages will affect crop productivity22.
Erratic rain behaviour causing effects both ways.
Increased crop water requirement due to higher evaporation at elevated temperatures.
Certain zones particularly in the north and west of the country may experience better yields
due to increased temperatures and longer cropping seasons.
Live Stock Sector. Livestock sector accounts for about 11% of national GDP 23 . Traditional
pastoralist system of livestock management is likely to suffer under extreme climate change
scenarios, as their capacity for adaptation is low.
Fisheries. Fisheries sub sectors will be affected as the temperature change will cause a shift in the
range of fish species and distribution. Additionally, increased intrusion of sea water in delta region
due to diminishing water flows will adversely affect breeding grounds of fish.
Forestry. The deforestation rate has been estimated at 0.2 - 0.5 percent per annum. Forest cover,
which is 4.8 percent of total land area 24 and supports the economy and ecology in many ways; will
come under further pressure.
Energy Security. Pakistan’s future energy vision relies heavily on hydro-power potential 25 of the
Indus River System and on coal fired thermal generation. Gross variation in flows will seriously
affect reliability of hydro-power. Use of open flame coal will come under exceeding criticism in
the future.
Migration, Urbanization and Human Distress. Climate Change is likely to have a detrimental
impact on rural livelihoods. More people will be forced to seek employment in urban areas. Thus,
human migration towards urban areas is expected to rise, and ‘kachi Abadi’ settlements are
expected to proliferate in the future. All other fallouts of such slums can be easily predicted.
Demography. Pakistan’s rapid population growth is only going compound each of the problems
have been covered previously.
Zone wise Effects
Mountain Areas 26 . The most likely climate change risks to the mountain areas of Pakistan are 27
increase in intensity of precipitation, resulting in more frequent flash floods and landslides;
increase droughts, resulting forest fires; and increase in temperature, resulting in rapid glacier
melting and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
Arid and Semi-arid Areas. Increasing temperature and low rain fall causes moisture loss from
soil, converting them into barren lands. Climate change will exacerbate this process.
Desertification threatens to affect over 43 million hectares of land 28 in Pakistan. Effects of drought
will be more visible in arid and semi-arid areas.
Coastal Areas. Pakistan is one of the countries classified by UNEP (United Nations
Environment Program) as being particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. Data
processed at the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) shows that sea level rise along the
Pakistan coast is approximately 1.1 mm per year 29 . Impact may include: risk of erosion, flooding,
inundation and displacement of wetlands and lowlands and salinization of ground and surface
water, particularly in Indus Delta Area 30 ; increased threat to mangrove forests and other
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 97 June 2013