OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Global Interests
The GHG emitted from anywhere on the earth affect the entire globe. The harmful impacts of
global warming are already manifesting themselves around the world in the form of extreme weather
events like storms, tornadoes, floods and droughts, with increasing frequency and intensity. As a result, the
world today suffers around 400-500 natural disasters on average in a year, up from 125-150 in the 1980s.
The main effects of global warming include melting of Arctic sea ice, thus releasing more water to world
oceans which may lead to changes in oceanic circulation, rise in global ocean temperature resulting into
extensive and frequent hurricanes and rising sea levels. Additionally, erratic rainfalls that cause floods of
unprecedented magnitude as well as extreme drought and high intensity heat waves affecting cropping
seasons, productivity, life cycles, health and even extinction of many species.
International Efforts towards Climate Change. United Nations conference on Environment
and Development held at Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 commonly known as Earth Summit 15 is a benchmark
event in the history of climate change. Later, United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change
UNFCCC was negotiated, which provides the basic document for future course of action. The objective of
the treaty is to cut GHG concentrations in the atmosphere to 350 ppm, the 1990 level; that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Developed countries are responsible for
increased emissions and must take lead in cutting emissions. However, it is cost prohibitive, therefore
negotiations often stall. Progress was only made after, "flexibility" mechanisms 16 were evolved, which
allowed industrialized countries to fund emission reduction activities in developing countries as an
alternative to domestic emission reductions; being cost effective. The arrangement is called Joint
Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Some funds have also been agreed
upon, however the details are being negotiated.
Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan
Vulnerabilities of Pakistan. The country is located in a mostly arid and semi-arid region of Asia
and its river flows are heavily dependent on monsoon rains and Himalayan-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH)
Glaciers, both being affected by climate change. German Watch a leading group on climate studies has
placed Pakistan at number 1 in Climate Change Risk Index 17 . The prime reasons include geography, which
places Pakistan at a location in heat surplus zone of earth. The expected rise in temperature would be more
in Pakistan than global average 18 . The IPCC’s scientific consensus is that Pakistan could face reduced
flows in the Indus River System due to glacial melt HKH ranges 19 . Moreover, gross changes should be
expected in precipitation patterns in Pakistan 20 . Unfortunately at this juncture, Pakistan has limited
capacity to cope with the impact of climate change.
Analysis. Climate change and its fallouts will affect vital interest of Pakistan in many ways. The
major effects include:-
Water Security. Extreme fluctuations in irrigation water are expected, which may include:
Intensive rains resulting in over flooding during particularly summer season.
Increased frequency of drought causing acute water shortages.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 96 June 2013