Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...

60%
50%
40%
All Durations
> Fifteen Minutes
30%
20%
10%
0%
Thunderstorms Fog Visibility
Figure 2.13 Distribution of Airport Delay by Weather and Duration
Source: Weber, M. et al (1991)
With no capacity for growth, the system will adapt in some less than optimal way.
Examples include (1) schedules spread from desired peak times, (2) aircraft size increases
more rapidly than desired, (3) ability to compete with frequency is limited, (4) slot
constraints increase, (5) smaller cities lose service, (6) delays increase, (7) block times
increase, and (8) other transportation modes become more competitive. Each of these
adaptation mechanisms has an associated cost. Ultimately, any adaptation the system is
forced to take because of a lack of capacity causes ‘waste’, increasing the cost of air
travel. Constraints on the system limit the ability of carriers to compete freely. Some
carriers may lose the ability to respond competitively to the marketplace.
Transition Analysis Model: The constraints model is used as a template for determining
specific technology initiatives by phase of flight and by benefit category. A time-phased
approach, considering short- and long-term technologies, is then applied to determine the
phasing of technology for an airspace region of interest. The procedures and technologies
must be in place in each transition phase for throughput to increase. This modeling process
provides the basis for a systematic evaluation of alternative technologies. It also supports
the development of ATM operational concepts. The output of these phased technologies
provides an input to an economic model evaluation. Each transition has potential user
benefits, costs, timing, and risk elements that can be evaluated in the economic modeling.
These can be used as the basis of the performance of the technology and procedural
tradeoff studies that need to be conducted. Depending on the results of the mission
analysis, transitions can be developed, based on capacity, safety, efficiency or productivity
needs. Detailed NAS future capacity transitions, for each of the operating phases, are
provided in Section 6 of this report.
Economic Modeling: The development of economic models is the last step in the CAFT
process. These models evaluate costs, benefits, timing, and risk for each phase of
transition. For a given phase, the return on investment is evaluated for each technical
solution for each alternative. Figure 2.14 illustrates the typical steps in the development of
an economic model.
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