Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...

The next step in the analysis was to postulate several system improvements: reduced en
route separations from 7 nm to 3 nm, reduced terminal area separations from 4 nm to 2
nm, reduced wake vortex separations from 4.5 to 1.9 nm down to a range of 2.5 to 1.5
nm, and the addition of departure runways. The postulated system enhancements
provided system growth for 20 to 25 years from the 1996 base. Figure 2.7 shows the
reduction in the system-wide delay with the postulated enhancements.
8
7
Average Delay in Minutes
Percentage of Flights With More Than 15 Minutes of Delay
7.17%
8.00%
7.00%
6
6.00%
5.45%
5
5.00%
4
4.14%
4.00%
3.6
3
2.93%
3.1
3.00%
2
1
1.1
0.45%
1.3
0.61%
1.4
0.80%
1.6
1.09%
1.8
1.61%
2.11%
2.0
0
0.00%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Figure 2.6 American Airlines NAS Study Results: Current NAS Delay Variance and
Minutes
Future traffic demand affects safety and efficiency requirements in the future National
Airspace System, just as it does capacity needs. A recent analysis by the Safety
organization of the Boeing Commercial Airplane Group (Higgins, 1997) considers the
impact of increasing operations, with a flat safety rate (number of fatal or hull loss
accidents per million departures) projected into the future. Figure 2.8 shows the growth
in operations, the extrapolated safety rate and the consequent predicted frequency of
accidents.
2.3
2.7
2.00%
1.00%
16