Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...
Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...
Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...
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considerations are key to evaluating future scenarios, but an extensive evaluation needs to<br />
consider all of the elements reviewed in Appendix B, Global Scenarios.<br />
Figure 2.3 World <strong>Air</strong>plane Capacity Requirement (1997-2016)<br />
<strong>The</strong> traffic forecasting process begins with a regional analysis of gross domestic product<br />
(GDP) and travel share. World GDP rates are assumed to grow between 2 and 3% per<br />
year for mature economies. GDP rise accounts for about two-thirds of world air travel<br />
growth. Regional differentiation is considerable. From 1997 to 2006 China and Hong<br />
Kong are assumed to grow at 7.4% annually, while Western Europe grows at 2.4% and<br />
North America at 2.3%.<br />
Key assumptions include declining yield and resultant fare changes, the use of flight<br />
frequencies in competitive markets, the influence of globalization and world trade and the<br />
differentiation of markets by stage length. With these various assumptions, GDP change<br />
can be related to travel demand, stated in terms of revenue passenger miles (RPMs) and<br />
then to operations counts. Regional flows can be translated into projected schedules, with<br />
further assumptions. Ten and twenty year forecasts are produced. Key assumptions<br />
stated in the CMO are: gross domestic product and increased value drive air travel,<br />
relaxation of airline industry regulation allows increased competition, market forces<br />
increasingly determine airline routes, airplane selection and the composition of the world<br />
fleet, and air traffic control systems and airport capacities respond to demand.<br />
2.3.2 Analysis of Future System Capacity, Safety and Efficiency Needs<br />
<strong>The</strong> traffic demand defined in the previous paragraph is used to drive an analysis of the<br />
system mission. A high level statement of mission requirements includes safety, capacity<br />
and efficiency goals for all system stakeholders. <strong>The</strong> goals are stated in terms of metrics<br />
against which all proposed operational concepts can be evaluated.<br />
<strong>The</strong> mission analysis quantifies the predicted traffic demand for the period in which the<br />
operational concept is expected to be in use. This demand is derived from stakeholder<br />
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