Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...

• National or international conflict discourages discretionary travel. Regions in which
maximum traffic growth are expected (CIS, China, Africa) are the most volatile
politically and thus more vulnerable to the effects of unrest.
• Changes in diplomatic relations between or among countries may accelerate or delay
implementation of more efficient routes.
• Ratification of bilateral agreements (or failure to ratify) may affect international
frequencies.
• Different technological or procedural solutions may be adopted by different countries
or blocs, resulting in escalated cost of compliance.
Regulatory Risk
• Communities located under flight paths or close to busy airports may take legal action
to block improvements to airports.
• New concepts of operations must be developed and accepted by regulatory agencies
before new technologies and operational procedures can be developed.
• Certification periods might be further stretched by unresponsive regulatory authorities,
increasing costs and rendering solutions obsolete before implementation.
Stakeholder Risk
• It has been widely publicized that by the year 2015, if air transport safety standards
cannot be improved there will be one hull loss globally per week. The perception of
worsening safety may mean that passengers will be less eager to fly.
• If system capacity cannot keep pace with demand, resulting delays may also reduce
passenger demand.
• Labor action is likely to have only negative effects since it usually results in increased
airline costs and diminishes the traveling public’s confidence in the system.
• Oil prices directly and significantly affect airline costs and fluctuations in the prices
beyond those expected could affect growth. Airlines could absorb increases, reducing
profits and thus delaying investment in technology, and/or increases could be passed
on to passengers through increased ticket prices, reducing demand. Reduced prices
could also be passed on to passengers, increasing demand.
• Political unrest and forms of fundamentalism have been carried to the more stable
areas of the world in the form of terrorism. The threat of terrorist action against the
air transportation system (e.g. the recent revelation that GPS jammers are now
available on the open market), successful attacks or even suspicions that an attack has
occurred (e.g. TWA Flight 800) have an immediate effect on passenger demand which
can affect airline finances for years afterward.
• All users want to invest the minimum possible, at no risk, with a return on investment,
within one to two years. It may not be possible to develop transitional steps which
allow these aims to be met.
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