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Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...

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<strong>Traffic</strong><br />

Demand<br />

Scenarios<br />

Alternative<br />

Operational<br />

<strong>Concept</strong>s<br />

Mission Requirements<br />

•Stakeholder Objectives<br />

•Safety Constraints<br />

Goals<br />

• Safety<br />

• Capacity<br />

• Efficiency<br />

<strong>Concept</strong> Development<br />

•Enroute<br />

• Term/Surface<br />

•<strong>Air</strong>craft<br />

Revise<br />

<strong>Concept</strong><br />

Synthesis<br />

System Design<br />

and Implementation<br />

Required<br />

Performance<br />

Analysis<br />

RSP:<br />

• RCP, RNP, RMP<br />

• Operational<br />

Improvements<br />

Human Factors<br />

and Operations<br />

Available and<br />

Emerging<br />

Technologies<br />

<strong>Concept</strong> Evaluation<br />

• Technology Alternatives<br />

• Safety Analysis<br />

• Economic Analysis<br />

Revise<br />

Performance<br />

Metrics<br />

System Development<br />

and Integration<br />

•Architecture<br />

• Simulation<br />

• Prototyping<br />

Decision<br />

<strong>Concept</strong> <strong>Definition</strong><br />

ATM System<br />

Specs<br />

Evaluaton<br />

Figure 2.2 Requirements, <strong>Concept</strong>s, and Architecture<br />

<strong>The</strong> analysis of risk and the various forms of uncertainty which can influence system<br />

development is summarized here. In this instance, risk may be defined as the chance that<br />

predictions of future requirements will be significantly in error or that measures to<br />

accommodate growth will be unsuccessful. Major elements of risk can be found in the<br />

technical area, in politics, in regulation and in pressure on the stakeholders. Planning<br />

major changes over so extended a period carries a great deal of risk and there are many<br />

variables which must be taken into account. <strong>The</strong>re are several possible scenarios:<br />

• <strong>Traffic</strong> growth projections for the future may be too conservative, and growth may<br />

exceed expectations. Such initiatives may also result in growth in unexpected areas<br />

increasing the uncertainty associated with regional change.<br />

• <strong>Traffic</strong> growth may not meet expectations, which are based on expected passenger<br />

demand, in turn dependent on economic growth assumptions.<br />

• <strong>Traffic</strong> growth is normally assumed to be linear with time, whereas regional change<br />

may be much greater in some markets than others or the nature of the growth (pointto-point<br />

versus hub-and-spoke service) may change.<br />

<strong>The</strong> following material summarizes technical, political, regulatory and stakeholder risk.<br />

Technical Risk<br />

• <strong>The</strong> pace of technological advancement may render solutions under development<br />

obsolete even before they are implemented. Users are aware that some of the<br />

8

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