Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...

8 Conclusions and Recommendations
8.1 Conclusions
1. The traffic growth predictions presented in Section 2 indicate that as early as 2006
the NAS will suffer serious traffic gridlock unless increased capacity is ensured.
The terminal area is predicted to be the primary choke point in the system, with
increasing congestion in some en route regions. This situation, if not addressed,
will cause airline hubbing operations to become difficult, if not infeasible, with
escalating costs which will constrain economic growth.
2. The current approach to NAS modernization will not accommodate the predicted
growth. This is primarily due to two factors:
• The pace of the modernization is too slow to respond to market needs.
• The system development process is inadequate, as it is largely technologydriven
to point solutions, without traceability to clearly defined mission
goals.
8.2 Recommendations
1. NAS capacity must be increased two to three fold through 2015. This is a
challenging task, technically and economically, and will involve a combination of
the following:
1.1. Additional runways will be needed, either at existing hub or reliever
airports or at new airports.
1.2. Higher traffic density in terminal areas and the most congested en route
regions will also be needed. The operational concept presented in this
report proposes to achieve this through a combination of the following:
1.2.1. Improvements in communications, navigation and surveillance
technology to support reduced separations. This will be aimed at
more accurate trajectory definition and execution, and better
position and intent information for the separation assurance
functions. A precision 4-D separation assurance framework,
distinct from procedural or radar control, will emerge.
1.2.2. Changes in the separation assurance functions to achieve the
capacity goals. This will involve decision support tools for
increased accuracy and productivity, along with an architecture that
supports the required criticality of function for separation
assurance.
1.2.3. Airspace configuration to support either high or low density
operations through dynamic partitioning. Access to airspace will be
based on aircraft capability, qualified to a maximum Required
System Performance (RSP) level in which the aircraft can operate.
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