Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...

estimated 5% constant traffic growth requires that the NAS infrastructure and operational
capacity in 2015 is prepared to handle 2.4 times the current traffic flow rate. A successful
system transition toward this goal may likely be delayed given the range of technical,
economic, institutional, and political obstacles. From delays in ground handling due to
likely increases in processing foreign passengers, to delays in integrating the latest
software and other technological subsystems, the NAS may have insufficient capacity in
2015 to assimilate the projected growth rates in traffic. The estimated RNP levels may not
be viable (especially near terminal areas) for the stated period, as successfully integrating
the CNS/ATM technical operational infrastructure may be affected by potential ATC
architecture integration issues associated with complexity, functional redundancy, and
general compatibility of several software-laden technologies. The number of planned
runway construction projects at the 13 major hubs promises to constrain the capacity
needs in 2015. Of course, economic shortfalls can undercut needed improvements in
system capacity by underfunding specific technical projects (e.g. ASR-9 surveillance radar
installations) which directly contribute to enhancements in NAS capacity.
Given recent ATC developmental history, possible impacts on system safety may arise
from the emerging trend of multiple, uncoordinated, and fragmented technologies
producing an unsystematic array of incompatible technologies (e.g. several software
protocols) which may diminish presumed margins of safety. Also, the expected shortage of
trained air traffic controllers after 2002 may be detrimental to operational safety precisely
when traffic flow levels are expected to rise dramatically. In addition, possible conflicts
stemming from Special Use Airspace between the military and civilian interests may
introduce added risks in a regime of Free Flight envisioned for en route airspace. If a
minimum of two hour notification is needed to communicate the availability status of the
SUA, a decrease in operational safety may be expected due to possible communication
errors in the operational context of relative route flexibilities generated in a Free Flight
environment, which would require heightened ATC surveillance levels.
Possible setbacks from planned NAS efficiency may come from the inability of operators
to have unfettered airspace market access, or when limitations in slot allocations at many
airports is reached. This is due, in part, to concerns by sovereign states in protecting their
national interests. International competitive pressures may further exacerbate the efficient
traffic flows from one global region to another. The uncertainties regarding different
satellite-based CNS schemes may also cause operational inefficiencies as carriers may be
required to adapt to multiple modes of navigational aids, moving from GPS-based systems
to other non-U.S. developed navigational systems. Finally, potential inefficiencies may be
incurred due to possible degradations of satellite-based navigation signal availability or
continuity of function due to ionospheric scintillations and other potential sources of
errors. These effects would be especially severe during the approach and landing phases.
7.3 Comparison with the FAA and RTCA Operational Concepts
The concept presented in this report is built around the goal of increasing system capacity
in clearly defined transition steps. Additional system improvements to support increased
efficiency are also presented. This concept, as well as other long term ATM operational
120